Relief pitching is a real bone of contention in my small fantasy baseball circle. Most owners don’t see the value of signing relievers long term, even if they’re cheap,instead signing big name Starters and offensive players. A good reliever, however, will often outscore some of your starters, in fantasy terms. I happen to like them because they, due to their lighter work loads, seem to pack more of a punch when they’re pitching. They get to keep the good stuff for when they really need it, instead of wasting pitches over 6 innings on a lot of foul balls and walks. They also seem to stay healthier, thus providing you with more value per inning.
As I seem to be alone on my perch, I’m beginning a series of articles today to try and provide some direction into the seamy underbelly of the fantasy game.
Part I: Inexpensive Relief Keepers
There are a few relievers out there that are unquestionable, young, keeper candidates: Carlos Marmol, Jon Broxton, Jon Papelbon, and Joakim Soria, just to name a very few. I have a few other names that, while may not be obvious studs right now, show a lot of signs of being very solid fantasy points contributors.
1. Chris Ray, Orioles – Tommy John Surgery. Bummer. That usually means a scarlet letter on the chest of any pitcher. Ray, however, was showing a lot of promise before his injury. Sherrill will probably start the season as the O’s closer, but I would suspect that his glaring holes will begin to show very quickly, and thrust Ray back into the role that should be his. In the short term, he should at least be in a setup role, which will bring you some valuable holds.
2. Jensen Lewis, Indians – His admirable job as the season end closer wasn’t really rewarded with the signing of Kerry Wood. There’s gratitude for you. Here’s the upside: Lewis should enter ’09 as the setup man for Wood. The greater upside is that Kerry Wood is likely to get hurt at some point(s) during the season, which should put Lewis back in line for a handful of save opportunities. He’s still very young, and hasn’t even hit his stride yet. The Indians can’t ignore him forever.
3. Mark Worrell, Padres – While his brief stint with the Cards was less than stellar, the crux of the Khalil Greene trade was missing a ton of bats in AAA. When he’s on, he sports a low 2 ERA, and a high K rate, the stuff closers are made of. Worrell is a good shot to make the Friars’ pen out of spring training, but probably just in middle relief. He should eat plenty of innings and provide plenty of K points for your team, but his real keeper value is probably not until next season or beyond. San Diego will see what Heath Bell can do as the closer this season, and Meredith will get most of the setup innings, but Worrell isn’t too far behind.
4. Chris Perez, Cardinals – Ok, so this guy isn’t exactly “hidden treasure”. It’s pretty common knowledge that he’s the Cardinals’ closer of the future. He performed well in his save situations last season, but he’s not really solid yet. His K rate is solid, but not outstanding. Normally, I would stay away from guys like this, since he’s not ensconced in the role this season, in fact he’ll probably start the year in AAA, but you should grab him now while he’s cheap. Grab him, sign him, and wait for the dividends to start rolling in late this season, and into the future.
5. Tony Pena, Diamondbacks – Like Perez, his value isn’t going to come right away. The ‘Backs are likely to go with Qualls initially, but Pena may wind up in more than his fair share of hold situations. If Qualls fails, or gets hurt, you might even expect to see some return this year. Don’t lose patience with him, though, he has the skillset to provide a solid bullpen player for your team.
John Diaz
Feb 16. 2009
Awesome writeup, I’ll definitely be tuning in to this series. I agree with you, many do ignore relievers, but at the same time, the (in?)famous LIMA plan strategy has been around for a long, long time, albeit only in roto circles. That may have to be a future article…