Another owner in one of my leagues has a quote on his team page that reads: The word Prospect is another way of saying ‘Hasn’t done [expletive] yet”. This is a common mindset. Some owners want to concentrate on the players with track records and with players that have measurable value, but they ignore the rookie that can be had cheaply. And still, other owners may rely on the allure of prospects too much. They bet the house that an eighteen or nineteen year old with a flamethrower for a right arm will mow down major leaguers or hit thirty homers and knock in 80 runs. Who’s right? What strategy will bring home the trophy or defeat your league rival? In this article, I would like to look at the different ways a fantasy team owner can use the farm system to their advantage whether they are enamored with young players or not.
The “Prospects haven’t done squat” owner might represent the more practical owner. Less intrigued in what the baseball fan boys have to say and disinterested when offered a prospect in a deal that involves “real” players, this type of owner wants a guarantee (playing time, results, etc). Things have to make sense when dealing with the “Prospects haven’t done squat” owner.
Therein lies the problem. There are no guarantees. Your favorite outfielder won’t keep hitting dingers forever. Nothing is a foregone conclusion. Skills decline and players lose jobs. And the player that this owner spent more cap money on or picked in a higher round of a draft magically becomes the player who isn’t doing squat.
Does this sound familiar?
The fact is that reaching the Promised Land in fantasy sports depends largely on out-working your competition through draft/auction prep work and activity during the season. Try using the same amount of your time and energy on your farm draft. Imagine the huge amount of upside that can be gained if you manage to nab a future stud at low cost, especially in auction leagues that allow you to keep farm players cheaply until they make the big leagues. How valuable is a four dollar David Wright or three dollar Prince Fielder? The 2009 season brings opportunity in the likes of Pedro Alvarez and Eric Hosmer. Again, for auction leagues, even though you may have to wait for them to mature, a cheap pitcher or hitter that’ll score you a boatload of stats can save you cash so you can overpay for other players in high demand.
With even a slight adjustment in attitude and that little boost in research to pick up some promising farm guys, this owner gives him or herself three things that professional baseball general managers, day in and day out, crave: options, options, options. If you don’t want to wait for players to develop, you can target players like first basemen/catcher Pablo Sandoval or 2b/3b Chris Coghlan, who will or may soon be promoted to the big leagues. Even though these players aren’t the top farm guys that fan boys drool over, these players are cheap with serviceable skills. Acquiring players like these at the back end of a draft or cheaply in the middle of your auction can give you much needed depth during your draft or free up cash so you can outbid your buddies for the studs later. Players like these can be just as valuable as your bargain basement pros, but offer the upside to be something much, much more.
Also, remember that just because you don’t value the farm player, it doesn’t mean that other owners don’t. Adding top prospects to your squad during your league’s draft gives you bargaining power with those who do like the younger players. Suddenly, you have someone they want. By the end of the season, when teams in your keeper league are rebuilding, it is a prime opportunity for you to pluck that stud slugger or Cy Young candidate from their sinking ship. Farm players can represent the future for those without playoff chances for the next season. Take advantage of that.
All this takes is for the owner to buy into “possibility” in the face of the obvious. No this player hasn’t done squat, but will he? Find the tools that make up a good ballplayer.
Hitters: hand-eye coordination, power, pitch recognition, physical maturity, etc.
Pitchers: repeatable delivery, three major league pitches for a starter and two pitches for a reliever, velocity, mechanics, etc.
Many of the resources on this site can help you identify these traits in players. Baseball America and John Sickels’s Site are valuable as well, but don’t be afraid to trust your gut. I know, I know. This is already a big step for the “Prospects haven’t done squat” owner. I shouldn’t push it.
This brings us to the prospect crazy owner. This owner is the gambler of the league. Possibility or potential are the things most desired by the prospect crazy owner. They trade away current value for the opportunity to have a future Cy Young award or MVP winner on their squad. Unfortunately for this owner, the future may never come.
If you look back with The Ghost of Farm Drafts Past, you’ll find many draft boards littered with the carcasses of fallen hot prospects. If you are a member of an established league and have the capability of checking league archives, look back five or six years. See who the prizes of the draft were. You may be shocked. I know I was.
Below are portions of my league’s 2003, 2004, and 2005 farm draft. All players were top ten selections by the other owners and me that year.
2003
Jason Stokes
Sean Burnett
Jerome Williams
Alex Escobar
Rob Quinlan
2004
Edwin Jackson
Greg Miller
Andy Marte
Ryan Madson
Jeff Allison
Jeremy Reed
2005
Matt Tuiasosopo
Jeff Niemann
Brandon League
Mark Rogers
Matt Bush
Any of those players ring a bell? How many All Star games have they started? That’s me, by the way, drafting then Dodgers future uber-stud Edwin Jackson first overall in 2004. Ouch! Sadly, six picks later current uber-stud 3b David Wright was drafted. Sigh.
But here is the good news. At one point or another, everyone agreed that those picks were right. Those picks were enviable. I could have gotten a decent player in return for Edwin Jackson, a pitcher currently with his third team and fighting for a rotation spot in Detroit. I squeezed the life out of him, not literally, of course, but to all callers, he was untouchable. Recognizing mistakes like these is huge.
Another pitfall to all the prospect love is the amount of time invested in each player. Many farmers don’t make it to the majors until they are 22-24 years old and even then most don’t break out, if they are going to, for another one or two years. So until then, the prospect crazy owner is not fielding an unstoppable scoring machine, but submitting inconsistent potential-fest on a weekly basis.
Where the “Prospects haven’t done squat” owner may need to take more chances, the prospect crazy owner should look for a little stability. He or she needs to pull back from the minor league fan reports, unless they are used to build up their prospect to a potential trade partner. The prospect crazy owner needs to look objectively at his player’s chances, know if there are any roadblocks for him to the bigs, and like any good professional general manager, SELL HIGH!
So if this owner can take advantage of a player’s perceived value and put into action a little “right now” thinking, soon, her or she can reap the benefits of being an owner who builds a team instead of grows one.
I think it’s fair to say the “Prospects haven’t done squat” owner and the prospect crazy owner could learn a lot from each other. By varying approaches, it’s the well-rounded owner who gives himself a fighting chance at victory simply by increasing his or her options knowing how to use their farm players.
