11. Neftali Feliz – RHP – TEX (6’3″, 180 lbs)
A fireballer who was traded to the Rangers in the Mark Teixeira deal in 2007. Feliz has a plus-plus fastball with movement that scales out at the top of the charts. His release is fluid and needs little additional effort for him to tap into the mid to high-90s gas. The Rangers have advanced him to face much older competition which was wise on their part. It has afforded Feliz the opportunity to need his secondary stuff to compete at the same level as when he was growing up just gassing the competition. Feliz’s delivery is not consistent and he has a hard time staying on top of his pitches at times. This does two things – it makes his fastball tougher to control because it already has hard boring action when he comes from his natural high 3/4 arm slot and it flattens his curveball into a more slurvey offering. Scouts are high in the belief that with his mound presence and athleticism it will only be a matter of time before Feliz puts it all together and repeats his arm slot on a consistent basis, mixing his devastating fastball with his hard breaking curveball. Downside to this repertoire is that he doesn’t have a feel for his changeup yet. He shows an understanding for the pitch but has yet to show the ability to keep his arm speed consistent as he tends to pull back the reigns when throwing the changeup and coming full on with his fastball. Major Leaguers will read that and his 100mph fastball will be shown on a Hot Stove and Baseball Tonight highlights alot as visitors to Arlington hit 400 ft homeruns. Feliz works on pure talent at this point and still has a lot of maturing to do as a pitcher. He doesn’t hold runners well and runners at the lower levels have taken advantage of that. If he doesn’t improve this part of his game major leaguers will run on him all day. But that part of the game comes with maturity and instruction and Feliz is not yet even 21, so there is still time to develop that part of his game. His MLE’s are consistent with his skills at a 4.2 ctl, 8.4 dom and 2.0 cmd.
ETA: late 2009 for a cup of coffee but it would be against better judgment to rely on Feliz too soon. He still has things to learn and rushing him to the majors could see him take steps back in his secondary offerings leading to a future at the back of a bullpen instead of heading a rotation as a #1. It’s a fine line to walk.
Geo’s comments: 102 mph. This kid will be treated with kid gloves like Felix Hernandez was in Seattle. That’s right, expect a handful of innings in September and pitch/inning count in 2010. Don’t expect him to throw 200 innings for you before 2011. If you can wait though, he’s going to be special.
12. Lars Anderson – 1B – BOS (6’4″, 215 lbs)
I’m going to start out by saying that his makeup is great. Considered a hard worker on defense and diligent at working counts for a young hitter with the type of power he is capable of. His MLE’s are 15 bb% which is great, 75 ct% and a good 0.69 EYE. He keeps his hands in the zone for a long time which allows him to use the whole field. His swing provides a nice fulcrum point which shows up in great leverage when he drives the ball. The advanced approach may actually be hindering his underlying power some at this point in his development which some may read as a bad thing. Not necessarily so. As he matures in Triple-A this year he should start to look for pitches earlier in the count to drive and work counts if he doesn’t get his pitch. The higher levels will provide more pitches to hit as more advanced pitching will be coming after him trying to get ahead in the count. As mentioned earlier, he’s a hard worker and his defense will be a product of his work ethic. He can be a good defender and an infielders friend as long as he continues to work at it. He’s not a fast runner. Not even for a first baseman, but that won’t matter much if he can jog around the bases 35 times a year.
ETA: 2010 as he works on his game in Pawtucket this year. He’ll eventually move Kevin Youkilis back to third which will strengthen the Red Sox defense.
Geo’s comments: Baring injuries, Anderson won’t be a factor this season for the Red Sox. One thing is for sure, Theo won’t hold him back if he’s ready. Anderson is as good of a bet as any 1B prospects to see regular time in 2010.
13. Brett Anderson – LHP – OAK (6’4″, 215 lbs)
Brett is the son of one of the top pitching coaches in the country, Frank Anderson, and Brett has an advanced approach that shows he’s been doing this a very long time. He didn’t grow up just throwing a baseball. You can see in his approach that knows how to work a hitter. He goes into games with a plan on how to work certain hitters and how he’s going to progress through the game at bat by at bat. Anderson has an excellent change-up which I see as his premier pitch. He has used it more since the trade to Oakland and it will be his calling card when he takes the stage. Anderson’s fastball sits in the low-90s with a good sinking action, much like fellow Athletic and the other part of Oakland young 1,2 punch Trevor Cahill. Anderson’s fastball will induce a lot or groundouts and he can locate it to both sides of the plate with relative ease. His curveball is a third above average pitch and has good tilt and drop to it. Two plane action as they call it. Anderson’s true ceiling will only be reached if he can stay committed to a high level of conditioning. He’s not considered a great athlete and before being drafted some didn’t even consider him a good athlete. So keeping himself in top shape will be a priority to a long career that will let him take advantage of his skills. Anderson’s makeup is top level and his command is his calling card.
ETA: 2009. Oakland could push both Anderson and Cahill in Spring Training, but if Oakland can give the two of them enough time at Triple-A to continue their progression we could see the tandem make their debuts together in the second half. The decision will probably come down to how well the rest of Oakland rotation does in Spring Training and then how well the A’s are doing at the break.
Geo’s comments: I like Anderson’s chances of contributing this season, however I think Vinny Mazzaro will got a shot before him or Cahill. Anderson is a nice $1-2 buy-and-stash. He will come of age in 2010.
14. Dexter Fowler – OF – COL (6’4″, 175 lbs)
After 2 disappointing seasons due to injury, Fowler, finally got on the fast track in 2008. He took the tools he has only flashed in the past and showed that he wasn’t a smattering of tools but the complete package. An advanced makeup and love for the game make him a joy to watch on the field. He seems to just get it. Fowler has plus speed which helps him range in CF and the arm that will make him a threat to would be runners looking to take an extra base. He has the tools to hit for average and some decent power right now. But don’t expect double digit HR’s yet. He’s only been switch hitting for a few years now and the natural righthander is a much better hitter from the right side of the plate. Not to discount his left-handed swing, but it is not natural and the pretty lefty stroke we often look for is not there for Fowler. He does have good bat control using an unorthodox split grip from the left side and projects to add power from the left side of the plate as he physically matures. Some seem to think that he will garner enough power to hit in the core of the lineup but I just don’t see that happening. He will be a good leadoff hitter, especially if he learns to make more contact when behind in counts and just get on base to utilize his speed. As he ages he could still man CF but may fall back into Colorado’s 2 hole eventually. His MLE’s show a good power/speed combo coming with a 97/140 PX/SX. His 10 bb% could use some attention but his 87% ct% is high enough where it might show that he’s swinging and hitting too many poor pitches when he’s behind in counts. When he learns to take those pitches his bb% will rise and his SB opportunities will grow.
ETA: 2009 because the Rockies have no one to stop him from taking over in CF and Fowler is a player who could take the position and hold it for a long time. Expect some growing pains though.
Geo’s comments: It will be interesting to see how the Ryan Spilborghs, Brad Hawpe, Carlos Gonzalez, Seth Smith, Dexter Fowler outfield pans out. Fowler and Gonzalez would be nice combo to try to get on your team since owning a starting outfielder in Colorado is never a bad thing. Put Fowler down for $2-3 or a late round pick.
15. Mike Moustakas – 3B – KC (6’0″, 195 lbs)
The Moose set HR records in High School for both single season and career marks. So many expected him to hit the ground running in his first taste of pro ball and that didn’t happen. He hit a rough patch early on and had to prove he could make adjustments to a new level of play. He did just that showing that he had enough baseball intelligence to know when he needed to change his approach to the game. That bodes well for Kansas City since a few scouts were uncertain of his makeup. He’s learning how to use his natural bat speed to his advantage and ease back on a violent swing that was more suitable for aluminum. He has the bat speed to hit both fastballs and breaking pitches out for home runs and his learning curve will key on which of those breaking pitches he needs to set and drive and which he needs to lay off. Working the count is not yet a strong suit for Moustakas but his consistent contact means that with maturity he will be a tough hitter to strike out even though he may never be a .300 hitter. For a power hitter that’s a big plus. Although he has the tools and frame to handle catching his bat may be too advanced for Kansas City to put him on the long track to learning the nuances of handling the catcher position. They have since moved him off of SS and over to 3B where his plus arm is going to be another asset. With former 1st rounder Alex Gordon at 3B and logjam already at 1B, Moustakas may find his future in RF where both his bat and arm will play up. He still has a lot to learn about the game and Kansas City doesn’t seem ready to compete just yet. So there is no reason to rush Moustakas.
ETA: You probably won’t get the chance to see him until a September call up in 2010 as the Royals look on track to be in contention for the 2011 season. That is, if they can keep the core of this young organization together.
Geo’s comments: The Royals roster decisions perplex me all the time. Unless Moustaskas goes off in a big way, don’t expect to see him in the bigs until spring 2011, which makes no sense at all, such is the life of the Royals.
16. Andrew McCutchen – OF – PIT (5’11″, 175 lbs)
McCutchen has been the top Pirates prospect for a few years running and has shown growth at every level. He possesses an excellent set of athletic skills and an affinity for learning the game. He’s very quick to the ball and isn’t going to have a difficult time handling pitchers who challenge him with fastballs. The hope was that as he matured his quick hands would translate into better bat speed and produce more power. That hasn’t occurred yet and it wouldn’t be wise to bet on it. He has the ability to be a Gold Glove caliber CF and an asset on the bases. His MLE’s have shown growth in bb% and his ct% is solid for the past 2 years at 86%. Both solid skill sets for a leadoff hitter. His average projects to sit in the .280-.290 range in the show, so his bb% will need to continue to improve. Couple that skill set with a good bb/k (EYE) ratio of 68/87 (0.80) and he should be the Pirates leadoff man of the future. His speed translates into stolen bases as he swiped 34 last year but he still needs to learn how to steal a base. He was caught 19 times last year. This usually points to a lack of instruction. As Rickey Henderson once said “Rickey says base stealing is an art”. I’m not sure if Rickey Henderson actually said that, but he was quoted as saying that. Once McCutch learns how to steal a base off of the pitcher and catcher he’ll improve that SB%, but it will take some time and instruction.
ETA: mid-2009. He could learn how to steal bases in the show but Pittsburgh is in a position where they can send McCutchen back to Triple-A for additional seasoning. They won’t be able to hold him there for long though. Expect to see him take over CF midseason in 2009.
Geo’s comments: He’s come to spring training with the right attitude, as he’s been taking optional batting practice everyday. I’m not impressed with Craig Monroe, Nyjer Morgan, or Brandon Moss for that matter. McCutch, along with Jose Tabata and Steve Pearce could win jobs right out of spring as I feel the only secure outfield job in Pittsburgh belongs to Nate McClouth. Snag McCutchen for your farm or drop $3-4 and hope for an auction steal.
17. Matt LaPorta – 1B – CLE (6’2″, 210 lbs)
A meteoric rise was the only way to explain the first full pro season for LaPorta. He was the center of attention for the Brewers. There seemed to be more news about LaPorta than many of the players on the MLB roster. He fast became a household prospect name. Tearing up the Double-A scene and finding himself in the Futures Game and linked to the Olympic Roster for the Team USA. If that wasn’t enough, he became the key piece to the trade that brought C.C. Sabathia to the Brewers sending LaPorta packing to his second team as a pro in less than a full season. After the trade LaPorta stumbled. But reading too much into his late season struggles would be a mistake. He had a lot going on and seemed more exhausted with the process than really off of his game. His MLE OPS was .812 which includes his 60 AB slump after the trade. His size and strength generate above average power and he translated that well from aluminum to wood, never missing a beat. His 11 bb% and 81 ct% are great for a power hitter and his 49/75 bb/k ratio are above average. He can hit the ball to all fields and already has a professional approach to hitting. He isn’t very quick and will not be an asset on the base paths or in the field. Finding a home in the OF or 1B will need a lot of dedication from him, but he can do it. The trade to the AL actually boosted his real value because he will have the opportunity to DH if necessary and never need to waste his one true asset. His bat.
ETA: Mid-2009. He will see the Indians lineup sometime in 2009 after spending a few months in Triple-A getting into gear. Where he plays will depend on what the Indians need and what the Indians don’t need right now is to have to figure out where to play him. They already have a mess to figure out with 1B, LF, DH and C and sending LaPorta down for a few months will just be easier and cheaper for them.
Geo’s comments: ***Sleeper Alert Here*** Listen, Mark Shapiro is on the hot seat here. After gifting the Red Sox a world series title in 2007, last year was a disaster in Cleveland. With both Grady Sizemore and Shin-Soo Choo playing in the World Baseball Classic, LaPorta is going to get a MAJOR look in spring training, and if he is hot they WILL find a place for him, log jam or not. I like his chances of coming out of spring with a job, worst case he’s a June call up and cranks out 15-20 hrs. You could do worse for $5-$8, Laporta makes a lot of sense if you own Choo, Ben Francisco, or Travis Hafner – who is in dire need of a good season.
18. Justin Smoak – 1B – TEX (6’3″, 200 lbs)
Smoak was a monster in college, mashing a Carolina Gamecocks record 62 dingers in his career. He’s a switch hitter who can mash from both sides of the plate with a very refined swing from the left side. He plays the game like a professional in both the field and at the plate. He has Gold Glove promise at first base and Texas sees a lot of Mark Teixeira in his profile. It’s easy to see why since Teixeira’s profile read very similar to Smoak’s coming out of college. Smoak will be on the fast track to Texas as long as he continues to hit. His makeup is plus and work ethic is praised by his coaches in college. He’s not a fast base runner. That’s his only glaring downside.
ETA: Smoak will work his way through the system as fast as his skills allow him. He just needs to transition from college to the majors and it might not take long. He may be the 2010 Opening Day first baseman for the Rangers, moving Chris Davis to DH for good.
Geo’s comments: As much promise as you could possibly want in a farm player. I like the maturity he has shown. If you can get a hold of him, he may be a $15-20 player for 2010.
19. Chris Tillman – RHP – BAL (6’5″, 195 lbs)
Chris Tillman’s development has notched the trade of Erik Bedard to the Mariners an absolute steal for the O’s. He has the stuff that could eventually really make Seattle regret the trade. Tillman grades out with an easy low-90s fastball, an above average curveball and changeup that is already a workable 3rd pitch. He has free and easy delivery that he repeats easily. He takes control when on the hill and has a mound presence that isn’t taught. He’s still young and just coming into his own, so he needs to fine tune his command and learn to work more with his secondary pitches to set up his fastball. He has the package of a middle of the rotation starter right now and could get better. Although leading a rotation might not be a strong possibility due to a lack of any overpowering pitches, his overall package makes him a very sure bet to land a rotation spot as soon as next year in Baltimore. His MLE’s show a dominant starter with a 9.4 dom rate which is excellent for his arsenal of pitches. It shows a true intelligence of how to use his pitches and get the best out what he has.
ETA: 2010 since he needs to stretch out into the 160 IP range this year and work on his command. But 2010 isn’t a long way away and Baltimore certainly needs some impact in their rotation.
Geo’s comments: This was a horrible trade for Seattle even before the rise of Tillman, now it’s just typical Mariners nonsense. What a crop of pitchers to hit the majors in 2010 and Tillman is going to be as good as any of them. Call me a broken record, but go ahead and stash Tillman away too. If you are in a league where you rebuilding, getting a group of these 2010 eta: pitchers is a must.
20. Carlos Santana – C – CLE (5’11″, 185 lbs)
Santana is a converted infielder and a good athlete who has taken to learning the catchers position well. His bat plays up especially if he sticks behind the plate and there is no reason to think that he won’t. There is a lot of work to do with every facet of catching, but he has improved his all around game each of his first two seasons behind the plate. He is blocked by both Victor Martinez and Kelly Shoppach in Cleveland and that’s a good thing. It will give him time to not only refine his catching skills but also work with and build a bond with some of the younger pitching prospects in the Indians farm system. That’s an intangible that can not be taught or bought. He’s a switch hitter with an advanced approach and a strong stroke. He already mashes lefties. He gets good extension on pitches on the outside corner but the swing can become choppy at times from the left side and he needs to keep his hands back in the zone longer to become more consistent and smooth out his lefty stroke. He’ll show average power and an ability to hit for a decent average early on in his career and possibly develop into a .300 hitter in time. His 69/59 bb/k ratio show just how advanced his approach is at an early stage in his career. He may one day have Los Angelenos saying “Why in the hell did we trade this guy for Casey Blake?”
ETA: 2011 will be the earliest he’ll be fully ready to take over as the primary catcher in Cleveland and that will give him ample time to really learn the position.
Geo’s comments: I have Carlos Santana on my farm in my keeper league, and while he’s blocked by V-Mart and Shoppach behind the plate now, I believe that he is the only one of the 3 that will have staying power there . Santana can be a center piece of your farm now, and the building block of your championship run in 2011.
21. Alcides Escobar – SS – MIL (6’1″, 175 lbs)
If he didn’t need to hit, then Escobar would already be a perennial All Star at the major league level. He’s that good with the glove and has a plus arm. He makes difficult plays look easy and impossible plays possible. He has so much range and such an all out effort at SS that he can sometimes be his own worst enemy forcing plays into errors when he should be putting the ball in his pocket. But when a SS is that good with the glove its tough to reign them in. He resembles Jose Reyes in the field at the same stage in their careers and Reyes has become more consistent with age. It can be expected that Escobar will follow the same path once in Milwaukee. Alcides has taken steps forward with his bat each of the past two years raising his average to .328 in 2008. His lack of discipline at the plate and inability to take a walk are going to limit his upside as an offensive force. He doesn’t profile as a .300 hitter and strikes out twice as much as he walks which is apparent in his 5 bb% and 0.39 EYE with 31/82 bb/k. Escobar has plus speed and swiped 34 bags last year and has good pop for a SS. So the lack of plate discipline is unfortunate because he will be unable to showcase his all around tools until he can mature and grow as a hitter.
ETA: mid-2009. Escobar’s arrival will depend on two things. Will Rickie Weeks finally breakout and stick at 2B and who is going to be the 3B of the future for the Brew Crew. The Brewers could shift Hardy to 2B or 3B and open up a spot for Escobar. Either move will drastically improve the Brewers defense and Hardy has the upside to hit for enough power at either position. The one certainty is that Escobar is the SS of the very near future in Milwaukee.
Geo’s comments: Am I watching BJ Upton here? Is Escobar headed for the outfield or will they get his arm and decision making under control? His bat will get him in lineup, his glove will get him on the field, but they need his arm and mind to come around. If you are looking for a SS who is near major league ready, grab Escobar and wait for 2010.
22. Jarrod Parker – RHP – ARI (6’1″, 180 lbs)
Tim Lincecum comparisons abound. Well he throws high-90s gas with a easy repeatable delivery, but he doesn’t use his entire body the way that Lincecum does. He’s also on the smaller side of the starting pitcher spectrum like Lincecum. But the comparisons should stop there. Parker has an advanced feel for pitching but has relied too much on his fastball in the past so he’s still a step behind in his progress through the minors. His changeup isn’t a workable pitch yet even though he does show a feel for the pitch. The Diamondbacks will need to make him choose a secondary pitch and concentrate on it in 2009. He has the makings of a plus curveball and shows an affinity for throwing it. It would be wise at this stage of his development to let him perfect the pitch and work in his changeup. The curveball will allow him to change the eye level of hitters, which would be difficult to do at his height with a slider, and the changeup needs to be developed now so he will be able to keep hitters honest as he moves up to Triple-A this season. The slider should be easy to teach him when the other secondaries are perfected and it will give him a possible four pitch arsenal with many different planes and speeds for deception. His command is already an asset and he will just need to refine his location selection as he moves up the ladder.
ETA: 2010. Parker still has work to do but he isn’t far off. He could probably make his debut late in 2009 if the D-Backs make another run at the NL West, but the more time he gets to refine his stuff and master his secondary arsenal the better he will be. He could learn to front a rotation if given enough time to develop.
Geo’s comments: If you miss out on the previous mentioned pitchers in the mlb 2010 debut group, Jarrod Parker is a nice pickup. He has to develop that change up into an out pitch as Tommie mention for him to take the step up into the Lincecum class. I like his make up though. I wouldn’t waste a bench spot for 2009 on him if you don’t have a farm ( HOW CAN YOU NOT HAVE A FARM?), but watch for him in case he is called up late in the season.
23. Pedro Alvarez – 3B – PIT (6’3″, 235 lbs)
The start to Alvarez’s pro career has already been a rollercoaster. From a controversial late signing due to contract demands to showing up to Instructional League overweight. He has a lightning quick bat but lacks loft to his swing. His bat speed played well with aluminum as he was able to drive the ball out of the park with his bat speed and power needing little technique. He has shown quick hands through the zone throughout his amateur career and that should easily translate to pro ball this season. He does have work to do on learning the hitting zones and needs to add some loft to his swing if the power is expected to translate. He could be a .300 hitter with 35 HR power or he could top out at 20 HR’s. His character has never been questioned and he was a leader on his Vanderbilt team, so the hope if that his reputation continues to be one of a hard worker. His weight is already a problem. If he can’t keep in peak playing form he will need to move off of 3B and across the diamond to 1B where his excellent arm will be wasted. He will hit. How good is going to be will be more about work ethic than tools. Because hitting tools are not in question for this prospect.
ETA: Alvarez will need a full year in the minors to translate from aluminum to wood and work on his conditioning. But once he’s on track the Pirates will be forced to fast track him. He should be in the Opening Day lineup for Pittsburgh in 2010. Which side of the diamond is still in question.
Geo’s comments: Is Alvarez a case of being too good for your own good? Tommie is right, if he works hard this season he will be in the starting lineup for 2010. If not, ugh, more talent wasted….
24. Derek Holland – LHP – TEX (6’2″, 185 lbs)
An “unranked” prospect going into 2008 is what comes to mind when talking about Derek Holland. His 2007 numbers aren’t something that should have gone unnoticed. He did strike out more than a batter per inning but his GO/AO ratio profiled him as an extreme fly ball pitcher. Something clicked in 2008 and he turned that propensity for fly balls around forcing more hitters to drive the ball into the ground. That is, when they could actually hit him. His fastball sat in the low-90s to start the season and by using his excellent command he battled down in the zone often. His cross body delivery is a red flag but he has an above average changeup that he uses well with consistent arm speed and good fade. Using the changeup will save a lot of wear and tear on his arm as he progresses. The lack of a third pitch would be more worrying if he didn’t already command the changeup as well as he does. While working on adding a hard slider to compliment his fastball/changeup combo, Holland saw a velocity spike from the low-90′s to mid to upper-90s on his fastball. Whether the velocity spike is a sign of things to come remains to be seen, but the need for a 3rd pitch will be the most important part of his development in 2009. If he can add the 3rd pitch he has top of the rotation upside where his command and changeup make him a good bet even in Arlington’s launching pad.
ETA: Possibly late 2010. Holland still has work to do and a full season between Double-A and Triple-A will serve him well. He needs to build up his arm another 30 or so innings on top of the 150 IP from 2008 to be ready for a full workload when he arrives in the middle of the Texas rotation to start 2011.
Geo’s comments: Derek Holland has some nice upside, but I’m afraid Texas is going to rush him, possibly as soon as this season. He really needs to be in the minors the next season for sure and possibly well into 2010. He’s a fine pick up for your farm, but don’t be surprised if he end’s up in the back end of the Rangers rotation….and struggles.
25. Logan Morrison – 1B – FLA (6’2″, 215 lbs)
Morrison could be near the top of this list heading into 2010. He flat out rakes right now. His bat stays through the zone for a long time and pitchers have a difficult time getting errand pitches by him. He punishes mistakes and takes good pitches wherever he needs to. His underlying power is plus and in time he will be able to mix his discipline and swing plane with his plus power and produce .300/30/100 seasons in his prime years. He already has a good bb/k ratio that sits at 57/80. Impressive for a 21 year old and even though he’s a below average runner he can still steal a base when needed. If he continues to grow as a hitter in Double-A this year he will push for the starting job at 1B in Florida sooner rather than later.
ETA: 2010. Gaby Sanchez will keep 1B warm for Morrison in 2009 but might not hold it down for more than a full year and if he struggles and Morrison rakes at Double-A we could see Logan by years end.
Geo’s comments: Morrison should be in for a big season at AA Carolina. He’s going to be one worth a farm spot in preparation for his arrival at 1B OR even RF in 2010.
{ 3 comments… read them below or add one }
If any of these kids has a big year, look out number one next year. Any of them has a shot to make the jump up to the one spot.
Pretty true…This seems to be a very strong top 25.
Not just any one of these guys jumping into the top spot or 10, but many of these players can be permanent players on MLB teams. Some guys are already slated on the roster for openning day, such as Fowler.
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