Welcome back to the Baseball Instinct Top 21′s prospect lists. We’re continuing our break down of each organizations Minor League system, looking at the Seattle Mariners prospects who we believe are the top prospects in the system. We’ll highlight the Elite prospects in green and our Sleeper prospects in red so you’ll know who you should know right now and who you should be keeping a very close eye on.
The Elite of each system are the prospects we believe to have the most current value regardless of age, level of play or past production. These are the guys we think will be able to reach a high level of MLB production in time, whether they are knocking on the door or still a few years off. These are the Gems.
Our Sleeper prospects may or may not be names that you’ve already heard of, but either way, we think that before the 2009 season is over there’s a good chance that these are the guys who will be making a move up the charts.
Keep an eye out for our Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays and Texas Rangers Top 21′s coming up over the next two weeks.
Top 21
1.Greg Halman OF SEA 8/26/1987 6’4″:195 ETA 2011
Greg Halman was signed out of the Dutch Major Leagues known as Hoofdkklasse Honkbal at age 17 after winning the MVP of the Dutch League. Early makeup questions involving fights and lack of willingness to take instruction have put Halman a step behind in his development to this point, but the raw tools are there. He’s learned what it takes to succeed and seems to have taken on a new drive to accelerate his learning curve. As I mentioned, Halman is a complete package of tools and if he continues to push his growth he has the potential to be a 5 tool player early in his career. He bears a strong tools resemblance to Matt Kemp of the Dodgers. With all of the tools comes plus plus power, average speed accompanied by excellent first step quickness, excellent bat control, enough OF coverage for the 6.4″ Halman to still man CF and a plus arm that could easily play in RF. Along with the tools comes an over aggressive approach at the plate and poor pitch recognition with an inability to work deep counts. His high k% and poor BB numbers are a big concern and 2009 will be a big year for Halman to prove that his growth is going to include becoming a more complete hitter. If he can learn how to work at bats and get himself into better hitting counts he has 30/30 potential in the big leagues. At age 20 we can expect to start seeing a mental maturation period from Halman and the Mariners have their eyes set on making sure he takes the proper steps with both his physical game approach and his mental game approach. Halman accumulated a half season in West Tenn in Double A last year but the Mariners don’t look to be on a path of rushing Halman and he should head back there for another half season before be moved onto Triple A Tacoma. Halman was part of the Miracle Netherlands Team in this years WBC and the experience should be one that gives him another experience edge heading into 2009. Look for Halman to possibly start slow in Double A as the Mariners try to work on his plate discipline and ask him to work deeper into counts for the first couple of months. Once he’s comfortable hitting in different counts they should take the gloves off and Halman should see a boost in both his average and walk totals from there. Don’t let a lack of early power fool you into into thinking the power is dissipating. He may miss out on a 30/30 2009 but that’s because sometimes you need to take a step back before you can move forward.
2. Carlos Triunfel SS SEA 2/27/1990 5’11:175 ETA 2011
Triunfel is a Latin American Bonus Baby and the Mariners have made a big splash over the past few years in the International market. Triunfel may eventually prove to be the best of the bunch. He played at High-A at the age of 18 in 2008. An impressive feat unto itself and even more impressive is that he excelled after struggling in the first half. In his first taste of adversity from being over matched he fought and made the necessary adjustments and rebounded in the second half to the tune of a .335 BA and .873 OPS. Very impressive for an 18 year old. He also showed some pop with 32 extra base hits including 8 Home Runs throughout the season. Still young and raw at the plate in most facets, Triunfel does use the whole field and can already drive the ball gap to gap with some thump. He will have a hard time with older pitchers who can bust him inside unless he can shorten his swing and learn to stay inside the ball when pitchers try and beat him that way. He tends to use his torso and hands more than his legs in his swing and it limits his ability to drive the ball with alot of loft. For a young hitter that’s fine, but with the power he might one day possess it would be nice to see him drop and drive off of his back leg more and get into some deeper drives. He doesn’t possess plus speed but did manage to steal 30 bases last year and I’m not sold on that being the makings of a great feel for baserunning. As he matures the speed will diminish even more and he shouldn’t be counted on for more than 10 or so SBs annually. The lack of speed is also consistent with a lack of first step quickness in the field. He has good instincts at SS and a rocket arm, so with a lot of hard work he could stick at SS for the Mariners for a few years. Ultimately he will need to eventually move off to either 2B or 3B. With a few promising 3B candidates already climbing the ladder in the system, the Mariners will give Triunfel every opportunity to stick in the middle of the diamond. The Mariners needs will dictate when and where we first see Triunfel, but if he can move to 2B and become an average defender we could see him in September of 2010 with an eye on the full time job in 2011. The move would shift Jose Lopez to 1B or out of the organization. The most likely place that we’ll see Triunfel is manning 3B for the Mariners in the future which still leaves the organization without a premium player up the middle and blocking some premium bats in the minors.
Note: Triunfel is likely out for the season after having surgery on Wednesday to repair a broken fibula suffered while sliding into second base in a AA game on April 11th, 2009. Considering that he just turned 19 years old, we feel these projections are still accurate. While he will lose a season of development, he is still young enough and talented enough to live up to our projections.
3. Michael Saunders OF SEA 11/19/1986 6’4″:205 ETA 2009
Saunders moves into the third spot on this list this by default. See Aumont. But that doesn’t mean that anyone should detract from Saunders skill set. He is a solid all around ballplayer with good power that should translate to 20+ HR seasons in his prime with a decent batting average. He does still put up some high K numbers due to a lack of selectivity, but that still should develop and his K numbers should level off. He has average speed and cover CF well. His plus arm would play anywhere in the OF but he doesn’t figure to hit for enough power for a corner spot. He’s on the cusp of Seattle I see him manning CF there for many years at a nice level. Although expecting any All-Star campaigns might be pushing it.
4. Phillippe Aumont RHP SEA 1/7/1989 6’7″:220 ETA 2010
Aumont went from a number 1 draft with a ton of projection to a number 1 draft pick with a future in the bullpen when the new Mariners Front Office decided that it wouldn’t put itself on the line for the possible failure of a top pick. Instead they are going to fast track Aumont by putting his mid 90s FB in the bullpen. Unfortunate to say the least for Aumont. Although a highly unpolished product at this point he does have the intangibles that you can’t teach. He has a mid 90s FB with hard sink and can dial up a 4-seamer into the high 90s. He flashes a hard slider at times that could one day be an additional plus pitch if developed. His CU if far behind as an offering but the Sinker/4-seam/Slider arsenal would be enough to make Aumont a solid mid rotation starter. His delivery certainly has an effort to it but he hasn’t had enough work to determine just how he will hold up over a higher innings total. He is intimidating on the mound and will make an excellent back of the bullpen pitcher with closer ability, but to limit him to that role without seeing what type of starter he can be seems like more a cop out than a decision for the betterment of player. Hopefully after limiting Aumont’s innings early in 2009 the Front Office gives him a chance to excel and really see what they have. #2 upside with closer stuff.
5. Juan Ramirez RHP SEA 8/16/1988 6’3″:175 ETA 2011
Young for his level at Low-A Wisconsin last year, Ramirez more than held his own by keeping his walk total low and letting his power arsenal work. He throws a low 90s FB with good movement and late life and can dial up a 4-seamer to the high 90s when he’s on. His frame projects out well and more velocity is possible. The Mariners are going to need to take a step back with Ramirez at some point and there is no better time than the present. Since he throws so hard he’s learned to live off of the fastballs. The M’s will need to have him work off of his slider which could grade out as plus and his changeup which is definitely a 3rd pitch that is currently behind in development. But if the M’s can get him to work off of his secondaries and build his stamina, Ramirez has front of the rotation stuff. If he fails as a starter then he has the tools to be a dominant late inning reliever. So since the Mariners have Morrow closing, Fields for the 8th, Aumont for the 7th, maybe they can use Ramirez in the 6th and never get another QS again. But with all jokes aside, Ramirez is the front end starter that the Mariners need to pair with King Felix and they will do everything they can to develop him.
6. Joshua Fields RHP SEA 8/19/1985 5’11″:175 ETA 2009
Fields was drafted in the first round of the 2008 draft by the M’s and has the stuff to work at the back end of a bullpen, which is what he was drafted for. He’s small but pumps mid to high 90s gas and has a hard breaking CB which is a plus breaking pitch. His size leads to questions about his durability but working an inning at a time at the back of the Seattle pen shouldn’t cause any concern. He is ready now and should see Seattle after a few months of tune up in the system. He projects out as a setup reliever and should fit in front of Morrow as soon as the break.
7. Michael Pineda RHP SEA 1/18/1989 6’5″:180 ETA 2011
Pineda was 10th on this list before Spring Training, but reports out of Arizona have the young righty pushing his fastball into the mid 90s after he sat consistently in the low 90s in 2008. His command of the pitch as a teenager is very advanced and it has excellent movement. He has a good comfort level with a CU that could grade out as a plus offering in time. The lack of a true breaking ball and punch out pitch is the only thing holding Pineda back. He will need to pick up a good feel for either a curveball or a slider this year or he may get moved to the bullpen to better take advantage of the strengths he already owns. Look for the Mariners to work with Pineda and Ramirez in tandem this season and develop them into true starters. If Pineda can grasp a breaking pitch he has high end #3 starter stuff and the command to handle being an innings eater.
8. Mario Martinez 3B SEA 11/13/1989 6’1″:210 ETA 2011
Martinez was signed the same season as Carlos Triunfel and two of them will be in a race to see who can make it Seattle as the replacement for Adrian Beltre the quickest. While Triunfel is the projects as a more elite overall prospect, Martinez took to his move to thirdbase in 2008 very well. He’s athletic with excellent first step quickness and plus arm that fits very well at the hot corner. Although Triunfel may very well have the higher ceiling it could be Martinez that takes over the hotcorner and pushes Triunfel to an OF spot if he can’t handle a move to 2B. Martinez also has a quick bat and an advanced approach at the plate with the ability to stay inside of pitches and use the whole field. His bat speed projects to good power potential and should be able to keep the average near .300 as he progresses. He’s still young but his frame is already pretty much filled out so speed will never be a big part of his game. But he puts together a nice overall package that profiles very well as a thirdbaseman. With Triunfel on the shelf for 2009 it will be a big year for Martinez to prove he can be the future there for Seattle.
9. Jharmidy DeJesus 3B SEA 8/30/1989 6’3″:185 ETA 2011
DeJesus is another top thirdbase prospect for the M’s and profiles very similar to Mario Martinez. He’s a converted shortstop and his range has translated well to thirdbase and his arm plays well there. Defensively he could play at any of the 4 corners of the diamond so there is going to some flexibility with the logjam at 3B. DeJesus has shown above average power already and still has room to fill out his frame which should add to his power potential. He needs to work on pitch recognition and doesn’t hit breaking pitches well yet, so his average will suffer as he moves up and faces more seasoned pitchers who will work to his weaknesses. If he can slow down the game and work better counts it will allow him to use his power to his advantage and his bat would actually play up even at 1B where his defensive could be a big plus for the M’s. Triunfel, Martinez and DeJesus will battle for the future at 3B but all should eventually find a home in Seattle.
10. Adam Moore C SEA 5/8/1984 6’3″:220 ETA 2010
The Mariners have two top catching prospects in the system in Moore and Rob Johnson. Johnson is already seeing time in Seattle and is the more advanced defensively of the two, but Moore has the bat to profile as a true top catching prospect. Moore has excellent bat speed that has already translated into power and he squares up pitches to all fields. He has enough bat to be an everyday catcher in Seattle as soon as 2010 but has work to do in 2009 as he reaches Triple-A. Moore will work with Seattle roving catching coordinator Roger Hansen this season to help him perfect his footwork. With less than average agility, Moore’s mastering of the proper footwork will be very important to his future behind the plate. He already has a plus arm with good carry and has proven to be a good leader at each level.
11. Julio Morban OF SEA 2/13/1992 6’1″:190 ETA 2013
Morban flew under the radar during the International signing period and is already more advanced than some of the bigger names that now have larger bank accounts than Morban, but Morban could prove the be the best of the 2008 class of International hitter. He has an advanced approach at the plate. He has excellent hand eye coordination which is a tool that can’t be taught and he projects to have above average power and can hit to all fields already. He just turned 17 and is a long way off from seeing Seattle, but the tools are there for Morban and if he can handle the transition to life in the US then he can become a very special player and could be sitting atop this list in just a couple of years.
12. Dennis Raben OF SEA 7/31/1987 6’3″:200 ETA 2011
Raben has been on the Mariners radar since they drafted him on 2006 and he chose to attend the The U at Miami and become a Hurricane. Raben along with Yonder Alonso led the Canes to 2 College World Series in that time frame and the M’s took Raben again the 2nd round in 2008. Raben is a old time power hitter and hits it where its pitched. As a lefty you would expect him to be smoother at the plate his swing is a bit long and he tends to become over aggressive at times causing a lot of swings and misses. But when he gets the bat on the ball he can drive it all fields and shows very good power. He has a good arm and profiles well as a power hitting RF although his range is fringe and speed isn’t a part of Raben’s toolbox. Expect Raben to move a step at a time and then possibly jump from Double-A to the majors. As an advanced college hitter he is already a few steps ahead of some of the higher prospects in the system so he could move past them on the road to Seattle. His upside if he can advance his plate discipline is that of a true power hitter than can take a walk and will strikeout a lot but be productive for a long time. Sound familiar?
13. Carlos Peguero OF SEA 2/22/1987 6’5″:210 ETA 2011
Peguero has the best power in the system but it has yet to translate into power production. His k:bb rate has been terrible throughout his career and currently stands at 342:63 meaning that he k’s more than 30% of the time. He’s going to get the opportunity to repeat the hitters haven CAL league and return to HiA High Desert. He will need to take a step forward in his maturity and translate it to the field. If he can learn to work deeper into counts and get better pitches to hit his power potential will translate and he’ll shoot up this list. He’s going to be relegated to LF and his speed is only average so his bat will need to carry him. The line between elite prospect and shooting star is a fine one here. 2009 will be a telling step in his career.
14. Rob Johnson C SEA 7/22/1983 6’1″:210 ETA 2009
Johnson is a question mark in the system. He is an excellent defender. He has a good arm with good pop times and eliminates base stealers at a good rate. His bat showed growth in 2008 and its probably advanced enough for him to stick in the majors. He’s a very athletic catcher and as a converted OF he has more flexibility than the average catcher would have. He played some OF at Tacoma in 2008 and could man the position if needed at the major league level on occasion. Johnson should be able to hold down the backup catcher duties in Seattle in 2009 and the backup role is probably his ceiling. He works with pitchers well and can call a good game. He all of the things that are needed to stick as Seattle’s backup while Jojima is still in town and should be a nice tandem with Moore in the future.
15. Matt Tuiasosopo 3B SEA 5/10/1986 6’2″:220 ETA 2009
Tuo has long been a top prospect in the Mariners system coming onto the scene in 2004 as someone with monster potential. For all of the potential and projection he simply could never figure out the game at a high level. Last year in Triple-A Tuo finally figured it out. He was able to shorten his swing allowing him to handle the inside part of the plate and inside out pitches that were in the past a huge hole in his swing. This allowed him to work deeper into counts and hit better pitches but didn’t translate into a better bb:k ratio. He has good bat speed and the ball jumps off of his bat but a lack of loft limits his true power potential. He’s a good defender with smooth movement and soft hands but his arm is erratic and it leads to a lot of throwing errors. It’s a flaw he has never been able to correct. With Triunfel, Martinez, and DeJesus battling as the heir apparents at 3B Tuo’s time to shine could be a short one and unless he can make another huge leap in 2009 he seems to be destined to be a bench player with the ability to play all four corners.
16. Nathan Adcock RHP SEA 2/25/1988 6’5″:190 ETA 2011
Adcock was an excellent 5th round sign from the 2008 draft lured away from a commitment to Louisville for $200,000. He’s tall and projectable with room to add muscle to his frame. He’s pushed the M’s to move him along the system already having five High-A starts under his belt before an elbow issue ended his season. He came into Spring Training healthy and looks to be on track after making his first start of 2009. Adcock throws a 2-seam fastball that touches 90 normally and can push it 92 at times. His best pitch is a hard downer curveball that rates as plus plus and is the best in the entire system. It’s already an out pitch and if Adcock can add velocity as he matures he’ll have two plus pitches to go along with a clean textbook delivery and good feel for pitching. His game approach when he’s on is advanced for his age but he he also loses his approach when calls go against him and shows his age. So it’s a double edged sword but should even out as he does become more experienced. He flashes a plus change at times and a 3rd pitch at an above average level would give Adcock an opportunity to really climb the prospect charts. He’s an unfinished product at this point and 2009 should be a good sign as to what his true ceiling actually is, but from the intangibles and his age I see him as a future #3 starter.
17. Tyson Gillies OF SEA 10/31/1988 6’2″:190 ETA 2011
Gillies is a similar prospect to Michael Saunders but with a lot less power and a lot more speed. Gillies has game changing speed and excellent on base skills skills including advanced bunting and OBP. He knows how to steal a base off of the pitcher or the catcher and profiles as a table setter is everything comes together. His plate approach is also above average and he uses the entire field with a line drive stroke. He may actually give too much of his effort to getting on base and it has hindered his power development. He’s not a small speedster by any means. At 6’2″ and room to pack on some more muscle he should be hitting for at least moderate power to keep pitchers honest. If he can use his advanced pitch recognition to get him into counts that he can concentrate on driving the pitch it would take his upside to a much higher level. So 2009 will be a telling season. He’ll either be a speedster with no power or he could develop into a true leadoff hitter with plus range for CF and a plus arm that will play up well. Saunders will be manning CF in Seattle very soon and Gillies will need to prove to be more than just a speedster if he’s going to push Saunders to LF.
18. Shawn Kelley RHP SEA 4/16/1984 6’2″:215 ETA 2009
Kelley is an advanced relief pitcher and will fit into the bullpen in Seattle sometime in 2009. He has an effort filled delivery that is deceptive and produces a low to mid 90s fastball with good sink and plus a slider that is a strikeout pitch. He will get strikeouts in the middle parts of games and is difficult on righties. He will need to work in short stints due to the effort used in his delivery but could hold down the setup role in Seattle if needed. Chances are that with all of the arms ahead of him slated for the back end of the bullpen that middle relief will be where Kelley eventually settles in.
19. Mike Carp 1B SEA 6/30/1986 6’2″:215 ETA 2009
Carp came to the Mariners in the Putz trade and is an has an advanced approach at the plate that translates into an excellent average against righties and Carp gets on base at a very high clip. Carp could hit in the .300 range if platooned but a lack of power that is expected of a 1B could limit Carp to bench duty in Seattle. He’s an average defender at first but a trial in the OF in 2008 proved to be a challenge for Carp and I don’t believe it will be revisited in 2009. The M’s don’t have any elite 1B prospects at this time so a platoon for Carp is a good possibility for a couple of years. But to expect more than that from Carp is probably expecting too much.
20. Denny Almonte OF SEA 11/24/1988 6’2″:185 ETA 2012
Almonte is every bit of a project as a prospect can be. He is all tools and no production at this point. He has bat speed but can’t make contact. He has speed but doesn’t know how to steal bases. He’s a switch-hitter who can’t hit from the left side. But his tools are off the charts and he has plenty of time to put those tools into game use and learn hoe to best take advantage of his natural abilities. On the positive side he is a plus defender in CF with a plus arm and excellent range. He seems like a natural in the field. His swing from the right side is much more natural and he uses a good leverage in the right handed swing to take advantage of his raw power and he makes much better contact from that side. He is so raw in his approach that he will need to take it one level at a time and never stop working. His game will take a huge step if he can learn to be more patient at the plate and that should come with experience. He’s a project. But a project that comes with all of the tools you need to make a star. Now the big question is will he ever learn to use the tools.
21. Maikel Cleto RHP SEA 5/1/1989 6’3″:215 ETA 2011
Cleto was one of the big pieces to the JJ Putz trade with the Mets. Cleto is a 19 year old flame thrower. Clocked at 100 mph multiple times last season. He knows how locate his fastball and when he’s going good he overpowering in short stints. His secondaries need work since his slider tends to get flat at times. His changeup is a work in progress and may be too far behind for the Mariners to wait on it to develop. If that happens then Cleto will be relegated to the bullpen which is where he best suited anyway. His electric fastball and slider would be best utilized in single innings stints where he can go all out at max effort. Cleto would be higher on this list but he has had visa issues this spring and according to rumors and there might be doubts as to his true identity. If he turns out be someone other than Maikel Cleto then he may find it difficult to secure a working visa and will be stuck in the Dominican until it can be cleared up. Cleto can’t afford a setback in his development. So while I kept him on the list he could easily fall off completely with any bad news. But if he makes it to the US this summer he’ll jump a few spots up the list.
Green is Elite
Red is Sleeper/Breakout
System Overview
The Mariners have a pretty good system overall although they have no impact players on the horizon that will help the team turn a corner on the major league level. With Halman, Triunfel, Martinez and DeJesus the Mariners have alot of tools that need more time to develop. Some of them could be special players.
The Mariners also have a deep pitching core but alot of the top arms profile out as power relievers and the organization has apparently decided to move its best shot at another front end starter to the bullpen as well in Phillippe Aumont. But with Fields almost ready to take a prominent role at the back end of the bullpen the decision with Aumont can still be rectified.
Halman has 30/30 potential and although Triunfel could be out for the entire 2009 season following a broken ankle during the opening week of the season he still has the time to become another very special player.
In Ramirez and Pineda the M’s could find their mid rotation starters but they are both at least 2 years away from Seattle and there is no help for Seattle until then. Both of them are breakout candidates for 2009. Keep a close eye on them.
The big sleeper in the system is Tyson Gillies. He is big enough to turn the power on and if he can do so he has all of the intangibles to be one of the top prospects in all of baseball. He already plays the game the right way and the only thing that is lacking in his game is some power.
This is a system that could be on the rise in the very near future and if the Washington Nationals pass on the huge price tag that will come along with signing Stephen Strasburg as the #1 pick in the 2009 draft then the Seattle Mariners will have an automatic new #1 prospect. At least until he pitches 50 innings in Seattle before the end of the season. The Mariners Nation will be holding its collective breath and praying for a miracle in June as Strasburg is considered the best pitcher to enter the draft possibly ever.
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