Spring Training is a time of great joy across the baseball landscape. A time where legends are crafted, and hopes are either lifted or dashed. Every team starts spring training with the goal of a winning season. Cubs fans, in a manner routine every pre-season, are once again claiming that “this is the year”. I certainly hope so. Every week another Cubs fan dies, disappointed.
It doesn’t take much to get a fan’s hopes up. Especially a dark horse prospect carrying a bag of promise. All too often, however, that bag is upturned, and reveals that there was really nothing in it at all. Jeff Samardzija is one of those prospects, at least thus far. Today ESPN Chicago is reporting that The Shark is getting restless:
With the fifth spot in the starting rotation open and another available while Ted Lilly recovers from shoulder surgery, the former No. 1 draft pick should have plenty of opportunity to begin the season as a starter.
“I want to be a starter,” Samardzija said Thursday on “The Afternoon Saloon” on ESPN 1000. “April is one thing, but August and September are a little bit different. I feel like I can help this team as a starter for sure. I can pitch deep into games, I’m a young guy, my arm is young so all those things play into my favor. Obviously, it comes down to the team and where everybody fits, if we need another righty in the pen or do we need a setup guy. Time will tell but my first inclination is to be a starter.”
After having immediate success out of the bullpen as a rookie in 2008 (2.28 earned-run average in 27 2/3 innings), Samardzija struggled last season, posting a 7.53 ERA in 20 games.
Among Samardzija’s competition will be right-hander Carlos Silva, acquired in the Milton Bradley trade, and left-handers Sean Marshall and Tom Gorzelanny.
via Chicago Cubs’ Jeff Samardzija wants spot in starting rotation – ESPN Chicago.
There’s no doubt that of Silva, Gorzelanny, Marshall, and Samardzija, Samardzija is the not yet the best option for the rotation. Taking a look at his stats from his career shows an alarming trend.
Take a look at these stats from last season:
| I | Split | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | BF | WHIP | SO/9 | SO/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| as Starter | 0 | 2 | 10.80 | 2 | 2 | 8.1 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 39 | 1.680 | 7.6 | 7.00 | |
| as Reliever | 1 | 1 | 6.49 | 18 | 0 | 26.1 | 33 | 19 | 19 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 122 | 1.785 | 4.8 | 1.00 |
And his history in the minors:
| Year | Lev | W | L | W-L% | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | BF | WHIP | H/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 | SO/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | A–A | 1 | 2 | .333 | 2.70 | 7 | 7 | 30.0 | 24 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 17 | 127 | 1.200 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 1.42 |
| 2007 | A+-AA | 6 | 11 | .353 | 4.57 | 30 | 26 | 141.2 | 175 | 84 | 72 | 44 | 65 | 624 | 1.546 | 11.1 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 1.48 |
| 2008 | AA-AAA | 7 | 6 | .538 | 4.29 | 22 | 21 | 113.1 | 103 | 56 | 54 | 58 | 84 | 484 | 1.421 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 6.7 | 1.45 |
| 2009 | AAA | 6 | 6 | .500 | 4.35 | 18 | 17 | 89.0 | 98 | 46 | 43 | 27 | 71 | 384 | 1.404 | 9.9 | 2.7 | 7.2 | 2.63 |
| 4 Seasons | 20 | 25 | .444 | 4.28 | 77 | 71 | 374.0 | 400 | 196 | 178 | 141 | 237 | 1619 | 1.447 | 9.6 | 3.4 | 5.7 | 1.68 | |
| AA (2 seasons) | 6 | 8 | .429 | 4.40 | 22 | 21 | 110.1 | 104 | 58 | 54 | 51 | 64 | 477 | 1.405 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 1.25 | |
| AAA (2 seasons) | 10 | 7 | .588 | 3.99 | 24 | 23 | 126.1 | 130 | 59 | 56 | 43 | 111 | 536 | 1.369 | 9.3 | 3.1 | 7.9 | 2.58 | |
| A (1 season) | 0 | 1 | .000 | 3.27 | 2 | 2 | 11.0 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 43 | 1.091 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 0.67 | |
| A- (1 season) | 1 | 1 | .500 | 2.37 | 5 | 5 | 19.0 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 84 | 1.263 | 8.5 | 2.8 | 6.2 | 2.17 | |
| A+ (1 season) | 3 | 8 | .273 | 4.95 | 24 | 20 | 107.1 | 142 | 69 | 59 | 35 | 45 | 479 | 1.649 | 11.9 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 1.29 | |
If you understand the simplest statistical math, you’ll see, very quickly, that he has not been improving his craft. As one would expect, each new level of play has brought new challenges, and he has not really shown much progress. It’s nowhere near what was expected of him, not only by Cubs fans, but by the baseball prognostication community as a whole. It would be an understatement to say that he’s been a disappointment.
Silva and Gorzelanny have been models of inconsistency throughout their careers as well. Gorzelanny enjoyed his best season with the Pirates in 2007, sporting a mild 3.88 ERA, and a 1.38 WHIP, striking out around 6 per 9 innings, and a K/BB ratio right at 2.
For Silva’s best season, we have to get in the Wayback Machine and set the dial for 2005. With his 3.44 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, he was no K machine, but showed great control with a 7.89 K/BB ratio. That’s only 9 BB in over 188 IP. Sadly, that season was an aberration, and has never even come close to these numbers since.
Sean Marshall seems to be the best option for Lilly’s rotation spot going into Spring Training. He’s shown that, even though his stats are not great, they are consistent, and that has value.
Jeff doesn’t deserve to be handed a rotation slot right now. He really needs to go out doing spring training, and chew up some quality innings if he’s ever going to be considered worthy of even a regular bullpen position. He has serious control issues that need to be fixed. He’s still young enough to turn himself into a number 3 or 4 starter, but whether or not Larry Rothschild can help him accomplish that is another question.
So where does he stand in regards to his fantasy value? Well, in short, he didn’t even make the BI cut on our values matrix. If you have him farmed, hang on to him for now, at least to see how the 2010 season treats him, but don’t expect much this year.
As of today, the best the Cubs can hope for, is that Lilly gets better sooner rather than later.
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