Precision Instinct: Ted Lilly

by George Utter on February 23, 2010

Chicago CubsBruce Levine, of ESPNChicago.com, reports Chicago Cubs SP Ted Lilly’s (knee) MRI on his right knee came back negative. He was cleared to go back to work Friday, Feb. 19, and was throwing long toss during a morning workout.

Our Instinct: The 34 year old Lilly is recovering from surgery to clean up his shoulder, so a bum knee certainly wouldn’t of been what the doctor ordered.  He’s 59-39 over the past 4 seasons and you can expect a return to 15 wins if he is truly healthy.

Precision Instinct: Did you know that Lilly has enjoyed 7 seasons  in a row of 10 plus wins with 3 different clubs?  2005 was the only season that he had a losing record, he turned in a 10-11 record, not bad for only 126 innings and an injury.  His 2009 season was the 1st season since 2006 for him to throw under 200 inning, despite posting a career best 3.10 era.

Lilly is another player we will watch closely this spring.  While he will never be confused as an elite option at starting pitcher in fantasy points leagues, he is a very good middle-of-the-rotation type of guy.  If he’s healthy, you can expect a bounce back.  He didn’t pitch poorly last season, just not enough for our taste.

Heres a look at our projections for Ted Lilly in 2010:

INN  QS CG SHO     W   L    SO   BB  HR  ER  ERA   FPTS   $$

181    20  0      0    14  11   149   44   25  68    3.39    536   $13

Lilly ranks #46 in our SP rankings.  He’s certainly a guy to look for at a discount.  If he’s healthy, he’s worth every bit of the $13 projected value.  However, as we all know – or we all should know, buying player’s at value is not how to win championships, you need a discount.  Lilly is the type of guy to try to get a break on and I think if you can get him for less than $10 then he will make a great addition to your rotation.  If your budget allows you to overspend, look for a higher end pitcher.

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