STEPHEN STRASBURG, SP WASHINGTON NATIONALS
7/20/1988BATS- R THROWS-R
Drafted- 1st Rd- 2009 San Diego State
Bonus- $15.1 million
On most prospect lists, you will find Strasburg’s name in the top three, and usually you will find it sitting at number one. We have ranked Strasburg #2, and based on absolute upside, #1 or #2 is absolutely the perfect place for him. However, the other nine players in our top 10 are more likely to reach their ultimate long term upside than is Strasburg. Strasburg is known to have a great makeup and performed dominantly in college to put it mildly. The only thing that could stop him from becoming a once-in-a-generation, elite frontline starter is his mechanics.
We will not be the first prospect evaluators to compare Strasburg’s mechanics to those of Mark Prior, himself a dominant college starter and one-time owner of the largest bonus ever awarded. Regardless of the regularity of the comparison, it is an apt one. We will now break down the intricacies of Strasburg’s mechanics and why they point to a possible injury in the future.
TEMPO – 45
When looking at Strasburg’s tempo, you really get a feel for the problems that could possibly plague his career. The majority of Strasburg’s problems come from a habitual rushing in his motion. From the very beginning, Strasburg jerks his arm back quickly, letting it get ahead of the rest of his body. That initial rushing dooms the rest of his delivery, in many ways, but definitely the tempo. Nothing else looks smooth and natural after the arm cocks.
WEIGHT TRANSFER – 70
Strasburg actually has really nice weight transfer. The problem is how much he has to speed up once he jerks his arm back, but he gets his foot down pretty well on time. Once his arm is back, he mostly allows his legs to drive the rest of the delivery. His hips explode open, and his arm is in good position as his front leg hits.
ARM ACTION – 30
The dreaded Inverted W. The Inverted W is created when the elbow of the pitching arm gets above and behind the shoulders. The problem with this is the terrible amount of torque placed on the shoulder of the pitcher. The pitching motion is not normal, of course, but it is even less normal for a person to place their elbow above and behind their shoulder, especially with the amount of force a pitcher uses. Without fixing this, Strasburg will experience shoulder problems.
FOLLOW THROUGH – 30
Strasburg’s follow through brings about as many worries as his arm action. The first red flag is the motion of his glove arm after he brings his pitching side arm through. The way he lets it fall to his thigh is worrisome. When you add this to the fact that he doesn’t let his pitching arm follow through, you see the danger. He completely reverses the flow of his arm and abruptly jerks the arm back up. Thinking of the follow through as the transfer of pure energy you get the idea that all of the energy used to propel the baseball at 95+ mph is transferred through the arm and to the hand, once the ball is released the energy needs to find a final ground. With Strasburg, he immediately stops the natural energy transfer and reversed it but locking out his elbow after release. That lock out in turn forces the energy back through the arm and to the shoulder to find its ground. That will lead to higher than normal wear on Strasburg’s labrum and rotator cuff. In time, the build up of the 200 inning seasons that will be expected of him will lead to enough deterioration that offseason healing and strengthening won’t be enough to reverse the damage year over year. After about 5 seasons or 1000 innings pitched he could begin to show some fatal flaws that might be unrepairable.
OUR INSTINCT:
With Stephen Strasburg’s current delivery, there are two likely outcomes for his career. The first is the Mark Prior/Anthony Reyes outcome. That outcome basically involves a lot of hype, shoulder or elbow injury, and a flame out. The second, more positive outcome, is the John Smoltz outcome. He could dominate for much of his career but also suffer through shoulder injuries. Regardless, with these mechanics, a shoulder injury is imminent.
Stephen Strasburg is ready to face major league lineups right now and will be able to move to the front of the Washington rotation as soon as they allow him the opportunity. To expect less of him with the amount of talent that he has would be foolish. Here at Baseball Instinct we see Strasburg as an ace. He’s going to put up some dominant seasons and if you’re counting on him in Fantasy Baseball he’s going to be able to anchor your rotation without question and as soon as this year. Our only concern is how long he will be able to sustain his success. He’s a once in a generation talent. How long he can showcase that talent will be up to the doctors, not up to him.
Special thanks to Aaron Bentley for his Instinct on this breakdown.
You must log in to post a comment.