Mark Bowman, of MLB.com, reports Atlanta Braves 3B Chipper Jones realized that he developed bad habits with his swing last year while dealing with nagging injuries. He said he developed the habit of removing his top hand during his swing from the left side of the plate, which caused his swing to become longer and led to the inability to catch up to fastballs. Jones worked hard in the offseason to correct these mechanical flaws, as well as to regain his mindset at the plate.
Our Instinct: Well Larry, that could explain the .264-18-71-80-4 line. Being almost 38years old and entering your 16th season in the major leagues and in decline could be another. We’ll give him and his hall of fame credentials the benefit of the doubt here and suggest that the batting average will improve again, but I hesitate to suggest that the power numbers will. He’s still a top 10 fantasy 3B.
Precision Instinct: Chipper Jones is a true professional, club house leader, and a good person. Love him or hate him, he is Atlanta Braves’ baseball. When a guy like Jones says his mechanics were off last season, you got to take him at his word. [+} In 2004, Chipper hit a career low by hitting .248. He still managed to bang out 30 home runs and had 98 runs batted in, but there were many who thought Chipper was on his way down. Not a chance. Over the next 4 seasons his batting average went from the .248 to .296 in 2005, .324 in 2006, .337 in 2007, and then amazingly .364 in 2008.
Chipper says his 2010 season will be more like 2008 or he will retire, and I think we all know he’s not ready to hang it up yet. He has fixed some mechanical problems this spring and a batting average over .300 is likely, so is a modest return to power, but don’t get crazy – we are talking about 20 or so home runs and 90-100 rbi’s. We will take it.
Chipper Jones is currently ranked #10 on our Third Basemen list. Here’s a look at our projections:
AB BA R H 1B 2B 3B HR GS RBI BB HBP KO SB CS FPTS 16T$ 12T$
475 .295 81 140 86 32 1 21 1 77 88 4 74 4 2 589 $14* $9*
Chipper has seen better years, much as you would expect someone who will turn 38 when the season starts. He is still good enough to be a starting 3B, even in leagues as small as 10 teams. Chipper’s projected 2010 value is $14. Because of his popularity, you can expect him to go for $15-$20. If you can get him for under $14, we say buy. If not, let someone else play out in their minds’ what he use to be. Don’t let that happen to you. Over paying for mid-tier players isn’t the way to win championships. If there are no 3B left on the board better than Chipper, don’t panic, there’s at least 5 guys right behind that you can get at a discount. The savings will justify the slight point difference, and you can put that money towards a better player at another position. Braves’ fans, be smart, don’t trust your heart.
* Upon request, in our projections, we have added values for 12 team leagues to go along with our 16 team league values. These values hold up pretty well for the elite players in any size of a league, however the smaller the league the better the end gamers are and the lower their values will be. Typically, 12 and 16 team leagues are standard size points leagues. Subscribers – if you have a unique sized league and would like a more detailed value on a player, e-mail Geo@Baseballinstinct.com and I will be glad to formulate it for you.
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