The Associated Press reports Kansas City Royals SP Zack Greinke tossed three scoreless innings in his spring debut against the Texas Rangers Friday, March 5, striking out three, giving up one hit and walking none.
Our Instinct: Further proof that last year wasn’t a fluke. Greinke is an elite pitcher and in 2009 was the best in fantasy baseball, posting a 16-8 record, with 242 k’s, 51 walks, and a ridiculous 2.16 era in 229 innings pitched. He should be the poster boy for overcoming depression.
Precision Instinct: Tim Lincecum. Roy Halladay. Felix Hernandez. C.C. Sabathia. Justin Verlander. Zack Greinke. These are the elite of the elite pitchers. The 26 year old Greinke could possibly be the best of the group, even in Kansas City.{+} He was straight money at home last season posting a sub 2.00 era, while posting a 10-3 record. If he can improve his record (6-5) on the road, you’re looking at a 20 game winner. In order to do that, he’s going to need better run support and better bullpen help on the road. Last season down the stretch, the games were tight with the exception of a 9-2 pasting of the Detroit Tigers on Sept. 17th. He had a 1-0 loss at the Tigers on Aug. 14th, A 4-2 loss at the Chicago White Sox on Aug. 19th, A 3-0 win at the Seattle Mariners, A 2-1 win at the Cleveland Indians on Sept. 11th, and a 5-4 loss at the Minnesota Twins on Oct. 3rd. All tight games where better run support would of helped, 3 of which he had no decisions, so the bullpen let him down as well.
On the 2009 campaign, Greinke only had 5 starts where he gave up 4 or more runs. He qualified for a decision in every start, throwing no fewer than 5 innings in every outing, and he went only 5 innings 4 times. That’s impressive.
Zack Greinke is currently ranked #5 on our starting pitcher list. Here’s a look at our projections:
INN QS CG SHO W L K BB HR ER ERA FPTS 16T$ 12T$
221 26 5 2 18 6 221 56 13 66 2.67 847 $28* $23*
The cat is out of the bag on Zack Greinke. Even those who think that his 2009 season was a fluke understand that he’s very valuable. If you go into your auction and land him for $28 or less, congratulations, you got yourself a great deal. Reality says that’s not going to happen most of the time. Consider $28-$35 a fair price to pay for him, and you can chase him to $45 if, as I keep preaching, you have good built in value (keepers) or have a plan to get value in your auction. Greinke is an elite player, overpaying for him isn’t insane. Just know what you kind of value in other players that you will need to make it work on your quest for fantasy gold.
*Stats based on 16 and 12 team leagues
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