Baseball Instinct Top Prospects
Arizona Diamondbacks Top 21
Introduction
Welcome back to the Baseball Instinct Top 21′s prospect lists. We’re kicking off our break down of each organizations Minor League system, starting off in the desert taking a look at the Arizona Diamondbacks prospects who we believe are the top prospects in the system. We’ll highlight the Elite prospects in green and our Sleeper prospects in red so you’ll know who you should know right now and who you should be keeping a very close eye on.
The Elite of each system are the prospects we believe to have the most current value regardless of age, level of play or past production. These are the guys we think will be able to reach a high level of MLB production in time, whether they are knocking on the door or still a few years off. These are the Gems.
Our Sleeper prospects may or may not be names that you’ve already heard of, but either way, we think that before the 2010 season is over there’s a good chance that these are the guys who will be making a move up the charts.
Keep an eye out for our New York Yankees, Mets and Baltimore Orioles Top 21′s coming up over the next two weeks.
1. Jarrod Parker, RHP 11/24/1988
This was my take going into 2009 in a nutshell: Probable #2 and a Potential Ace. Mid 90s FB, 3 good to plus secondaries. Hard worker. Parker is on the small side but he’s a gamer and knows how to win. Here’s my take for 2010: He came down with elbow troubles in late July which eventually led to TJ surgery. I don’t fear the TJ. As a matter of fact I not only don’t fear it in a prospect I actually like to see it completed at an early age as long as the prospect has show upside, maturity and has gained a nice level of experience. As in Parker’s case he was on the fast track and is well advanced for his age. This setback will give him time to mature mentally and even more physically as well as learn how to pitch without his best stuff when he’s on the road back. In the long run his fastball should come back to the normal mid 90s and he might even get a little more giddy-up on it as he comes back. He should be a better pitcher at the end of this and his upside as a Ace has actually gone up even higher in my opinion now. His time line is the only thing taking a step back now and we should expect to see him in May to midseason in 2011 and he’ll be there to stay.
2. Marc Krauss, OF 10/5/1987
Krauss isn’t your typical baseball prospect that will set off sleeper alarms because he simply might not ever find a solid defensive home. His best shot is going to be LF and I think his bat will force him into play in the future. He approaches hitting in a very advanced manner. Krauss uses the whole field going gap to gap wherever the ball is pitched and his swing mechanics allow him to drive the ball with authority. He repeats his swing easily and doesn’t have a lot of wasted motion. He’ll be able to hit for average at any level and his size says that his college power is legit. He’ll see Arizona in 2010 if all goes right but a crowded OF in Arizona means he might not find a home until 2011.
3. Bobby Borchering, 3B 10/25/1990
Borchering was one of 5 first round picks for the Dbacks in 2009 and is also their best bet at a true power hitting middle of the order hitter. He’s a switch hitter with good bat speed from the right side and elite bat speed from the left side. He unfortunately chases high fastballs from both sides of the plate expanding the strikezone for opposing pitchers. He’ll need to reign that in as he matures to utilize his power and feel for hitting or advanced pitchers will eat him up. He is still only a kid and has plenty of time to learn how to work the zone so its not a big concern right now. He’s a 3B right now but will probably move to 1B within the next year or so because he would need to concentrate on his defense to stay at 3B and that would hold back his development as a hitter which the Diamondbacks will not want to do. The expected collision course is going to be with fellow 2009 draftee Ryan Wheeler. Both are going to be capable power hitters with the size for 1B, and
Borchering might be the one of the two find himself in the OF because he is the more athletic of the two.
4. Ryan Wheeler,1B 7/10/1988
Wheeler is the third of a trio of Baby Backs along with Bochering and Krauss who could very well be the future 3-5-6 in the Arizona lineup surrounding Justin Upton. The major problem there is that they all are average defenders at best with high upside bats. Wheeler could be the best of the bunch if his 2009 pro debut is any sign of things to come. He has a smooth lefty swing that produces above average pop and he works the zone like a seasoned professional which is a good sign for his future prospects. If Brochering can stick at 3B we’ll see the trio together in Arizona in a couple of years at the heart of their lineup. Wheeler will need to stay at 1B and has the bat to do that and the defensive ability to be an average defender there. We should see the trio together in High A Vasalia together by midseason.
5. Mike Belfiore, LHP 10/3/1988
Belfiore would have been a steal for some team in 2009 if the Diamondbacks didn’t have a glut of 1st round picks. Belfiore was a college reliever with all the making of a pro bullpen arm before proving late in the season that he can work long into games with anyone and the DBacks took notice and snagged him in the 1st round. He’s going to get a shot at becoming a member of a future Diamondback rotation and will start the 2010 season in High Class A and continue his development as a starter. With a low 90s fastball that has hard downward action he’s a ground ball machine when he’s going good and has the put away pitch in his slider that has the makings of a plus pitch right now. He’s going to need to work on his changeup this summer and grow as a pitcher but he has all the makings of a back end innings eating starter. If all else fails he’ll find a home as a lefty reliever and be successful.
6. Brandon Allen, 1B 2/12/1986
Allen is going to compete for the 1B in Arizona this spring and could beat out Adam LaRoche if he tears it up in ST. His probable role will be as Arizona’s backup at 1B and a power hitter off the bench to start the year. If he does well in limited playing time he could be trade bait when the DBacks are gunning for the NL West crown. He fits better in the AL where his defense won’t be as apparent of a weakness and he can grab ABs at DH to show off his impressive power. Built like a football players his average defense probably won’t uptick anymore so it would be in his best interest as a player to find his way back to the AL. With Arizona picking him up last season for Tony Pena it wouldn’t be a huge loss if they can flip him for a solid 4th starter later in the year.
7. Matt Davidson, 3B 3/26/1991
Davidson is another 2009 draftee for the Diamondbacks that has good power potential and is going to need his bat to be his calling card. He’s currently scheduled to tandem at 3B with Bobby Borchering in Low-A to start the season and one of them should move up to High-A before the year is out. Which one is up in the air and the Dbacks are hoping one of them can stick at 3B. Davidson has plus power potential but his swing mechanics will need to be reworked if the power is going to translate at higher levels. At 6-3 and 210 he’s already a big boy and will need to maintain good conditioning because his speed is already below average and it hinders his glove at the hot corner. Fortunately he has the arm for a shift to RF if he can’t stick at 3B because there is a glut of possible 1B in the system right now.
8. Collin Cowgill, OF 5/22/1986
Cowgill came in at #14 on my 2009 Dbacks Top 21 and here’s my 2009 outlook on Cowgill: Plus bat speed with poor discipline. Might be too old to overcome negatives of fringe range and arm including being undersized for a power hitting OF. Good speed. He produced in 2009 as expected while showing his plus bat speed and stealing bases on good instinct on the basepaths. He’s not a great CF but holds his own. Profiling better on a corner and has the arm for RF. He has good heart and puts effort into his production. He’s a gamer like Pollack and another player who profiles more as a fourth outfielder.If he ever uncovers a full time job he could put up a 20/20 season.
9. A.J. Pollack, OF 12/5/1987
Pollack might be closest of Arizona’s 2009 draft picks to actually make an impact with the bat in 2010 although he’s probably still a year away. He’s a light hitting prototype CF and will be an excellent defender. Although he has the instincts and speed to be a top of the order hitter I’m unsure at this point if he’s going to hit for enough average and be able to take enough walks to be a true leadoff type. If he can learn to control the plate and work deep counts he will be 25-30 steal per season CF. As of right now he’s simply average all around gamer who knows how to use his tools to his advantage. The question is if he can continue to push a skill set with a ceiling higher enough to be a full time CF. I’m betting against it, even though I’m hoping he proves me wrong. I like gamers and Pollack is a gamer.
10. Chris Owings, SS 8/12/1991
Owings is another of Arizona’s 2009 draftees and he has an advanced bat for his age but at this point doesn’t project to hit for more than average power and a lack of plate discipline is going to need to be overcome for him to an average hitter at the higher levels. Currently positioned at SS he will need to move off of SS with time because he isn’t fluid and his arm is only average as well. So while there is some projections for a spark plug of a player here there is also a lot to overcome to reach his potential. He might eventually find himself in a utility role playing some 2B, SS and OF.
11. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B 9/10/1987
Goldschmidt is a man without a home in this Dbacks system. He’s a power hitting fringe corner infielder in a system chock full of them. He’s a rock at 6-4, 220lbs and led D-1 last year in RBIs. He has simple mechanics but still tends to get long in his swing because his best tool is the power and its his calling card. He started in the Pioneer League and did very well but we’ll need to see him against advanced pitching to see what type of hitter he will really be. More advanced pitchers will be able to find holes and he’s going to need to prove that he cam adjust.
12. Reynaldo Navarro, SS 12/22/1989
Navarro was tagged as a possible Utilityman last year on these pages and I thought a move to 2B would slow the game down for him a bit. He made some strides at SS last year cutting down on the errors but he isn’t a star at SS either. A move to 2B to up his versatility should still be in store. He’s still a light hitter and not a big person. He hits line drives from gap to gap and isn’t a fast runner so it doesn’t play well near the top of a lineup. He’ll need to work hard to make it to Arizona. Even as a utility infielder.
13. Leyson Septimo, LHP 7/7/1985
Septimo is a slight of size converted outfielder with a rocket arm. While he’s only 6′ and 150 lbs he gets his fastball up into the high 90s and is learning to perfect his slider and workable changeup. He has some rare heat for a lefty from three quarters, hides the ball well and if he can continue his evolution from outfielder to pitcher he has a chance to be a high end factor in the bullpen as either a dominant lefty specialist with the upside if a top notch closer.
14. Enrique Burgos, RHP 11/23/1990
Burgos is an arm to keep an eye on the Diamondbacks system in 2010, with a large 6’4″ 200 lbs frame and long lanky arms, he gets his fastball into the low to mid 90s. His curveball is a work in progress and may eventually end up developing into a slider, but he flashed an above average changeup even at this early stage of his development. He’s still young and still learning how to use his body, but he has excellent upside and might be the biggest sleeper in this system.
15. David Nick, 2B 2/3/1990
Nick is a converted SS having moved to 2B at the start of his pro career. While he only has an average arm at best he should be able to handle a utility role and see some time at SS as a pro. But right now he’s being developed as a 2B and his gamer attitude and approach makes him a player to watch in 2010. He doesn’t have any plus tools but puts what he has on display every game. He’ll steal bases at a decent clip, uses an all out short compact swing which generates average power. If he can keep his contact percentage up as he climbs the latter he has a future as a starting 2B or utility player.
16. Eric Smith, RHP 11/10/1987
Smith was selected in the 2nd round in 2009 and continued to get better as he did in college. He seems to take each level of competition and adjust. While he doesn’t excel above the competition, he has yet to be left behind. He throws a hard down sinker with 3 average secondaries and knows how to get outs. If he can pitch to his strength as a groundball pitcher he could be a very successful mid rotation starter in the majors. He has the body to eat innings and will see High A this year for his next level of adjustment.
17. Keon Broxton, OF 5/7/1990
Broxton is the top athlete in the Dbacks system with plus raw speed and above average power to go along with excellent range in CF and the arm to a capable corner OF as well. His raw tools have yet to translate into prowess with the bat, but his bat speed is above average and he handles fastballs well. Development in his approach and pitch selection will help with his struggles against offspeed pitches and he has the time to work on that facet of his game. If all falls right he can be a 30/30 type. If he can’t improve his plate discipline he may not make enough consistent contact to be a useful everyday corner outfielder. But his tools are good enough to warrant his position on the Dbacks 2010 list.
18. Cole Gillespie, OF 6/20/1984
A bit long in the tooth for a prospect, it seems that Cole Gillespie has been working his way through the minors for a long time. Drafted in 2006, Gillespie came to the Dbacks in exchange for Felipe Lopez at the trade deadline last season. Gillespie is a solid average fourth outfielder and although he doesn’t have any plus tools he puts together his average skill set and is able to hide his weaknesses based on baseball instinct. While he may not ever earn an everyday job in the majors, Gillespie is a solid bet to be a contributor in 2010 on some level.
19. Matt Helm, 1B 9/1/1990
Helm is another power corner infielder in a logjam within the system. He’s also another hit first, defense secondary types. He may actually benefit from his current position on the systems ladder because he’s going to share time at 1B and 3B and I envision him seeing some OF time as well. This will give him a decided advantage in his development if he bat comes along and reaches his skill level. His tools are above average and he’s athletic enough to a point that the Dbacks could even try him at 2B just to get his bat in their lineups. While he’ll probably never be an above average 2B he could be serviceable.
20. Kevin Eichhorn, RHP 2/6/1990
Eichhorn is a bit of a wild card for me. I like to see some type of plus pitch from a pitcher, but Eichhorn is lacking there. His fastball sits low 90s at his best right now and his secondaries are ordinary. But he knows how to pitch and uses his average stuff in a very complimentary manner. He’s still young and should add some velocity to his fastball in time which will afford him the luxury of knowing how to pitch without the heat. His changeup is average and once he can get a little more separation he has the upside of a back end starter.
21. Rossmel Perez, C 8/26/1989
Perez isn’t going to bring the house down with his hit tools, but he might already be the best defensive catcher in the organization and his bat is not a weak link. He has a short line drive stroke and although his power is non existent, he won’t strike out a lot in the majors. His arm is plus and his ability to manage a game plan will make him a pitchers friend. He doesn’t have the bat to be an everyday catcher at this time but with some additional development time he could carve out a full time gig.
Keep an eye out for this “non prospect”:
Charles Brewer, RHP 4/7/1988
Brewer is a UCLA graduate who didn’t light up the college scene and fell in the draft to the Dbacks at the 366th pick. He showed up at the Dbacks showcase workouts throwing 90-94 mph, and people with the team believe he could be a case of a guy who didn’t fit the mold at UCLA, where his arm slot and delivery were changed from how he pitched at Chaparral High in Scottsdale. If he’s allowed to get back to what made him successful in High School he has the size and stuff to develop into a back end of the rotation starter but projects now as a bullpen arm. He K’d more than a batter per inning in the Pioneer league finishing 7-2 with a 2.47 ERA and a 1.62 GO/AO. Brewer seems to be better in shorter stints out of the bullpen which is where he did the most damage. We’ll need to keep an eye on what the Diamondbacks choose as his path and see how he handles a jump in level to more experienced hitters.
See ya real soon:
Wade Miley, LHP 11/13/1986
Miley is a lefty that was taken in the first round Supp by the Dbacks in 2009 and I think this is by far their biggest overdraft of the year. Miley is already 23 and probably not very projectable. He has a fastball that gets into the low 90s but he’s most comfortable locating in the high 80s. He has a good slider but its in the mid 80s and there isn;t much separation between his fastball and the slider. So if his slider gets flat at any point he’s going to get hit. Hard. Often. If he can stay consistently in the 90s with his FB and get good separation from the slider he’ll find a home in the bullpen. I don’t see a rotation spot in Miley’s future.
Bryan Augenstein, RHP 7/11/1986
Augenstein is on the cusp of the majors but he doesn’t have the power fastball to be a dominant bullpen arm or the 3 pitches do be a successful starter. He’ll find his way into the bullpen as a serviceable arm to eat some innings but won’t strike a lot of hitters out and his sinker is the only thing that will keep him alive. He’ll probably fall off of the Top 21 for Arizona this year whether he makes it to Arizona or not.
The System
The Arizona Diamondbacks system is one the most shallow in the league based on high end talent, but they do have a depth of power hitting corner infielders that came from the 2009 draft. The development time needed for most of the system means that a lot of help isn’t on the way.
Outside of the obvious top prospects in the system, I’m keeping a close eye in Septimo, Burgos and I believe Krauss is being undervalued.
Check back soon for our next Top 21.
