June 2010

Prospect Instinct: Touch’em All

Baseball Instinct is going to go from league to league over the next few weeks and highlight the players who are lighting up the field so far. I’m not going to be doing a Top 10 or a Top 21 for each league. I’m breaking down the statistics and performances for 2010 so far. We’ll be pulling out names that most have never heard of right along with the top names that everyone knows. If you want to get into the know on the ground floor, this is the only way to do it. I’ll be shelling out pitchers and hitters from every league and giving you my opinion on some of the top names and some who probably should be top names.

2010 Midwest League Edition

We’re going to start out in the lower levels of the minors and the MWL has the most data to be relevant at this level. So here are the pitchers to look at over the second half to see who’s real and really not.

The Pitchers

Liam Hendriks, MIN – In the top tier you have Hendriks who ripped MWL hitters apart this year and after 6 games got the nod to High A Fort Myers where he continues to be a dominant GB/K pitcher. Hendriks did not make a Top Prospects list this preseason. I guess its time for someone to mention him as one of the top pitchers making his way in the lower levels for the Twins. Based on his numbers, he’ll make the FSL version of this list as well.

Tyler Skaggs, LAA - One of two Angels in the top tier, Skaggs, is just 19 years old and the lefty is showing why he garnered preseason attention.

Scott Schneider, STL - Very high GB% and very low BABIP make me skeptical. But the numbers are what they are and he was not on any preseason lists. Keep an eye on him. If the BABIP corrects the ERA will too.

Kyle Heckathorn, MIL – Brewers top prospect with questions as to whether he would stick as a SP. So far so good. High 90s heat plays up at lower levels. But its hard to argue with a 60% GB rate with good k/bb numbers. The big boy could be a stud for the Brew Crew one day.

Garrett Richards, LAA – Another Angels top prospect has kept his control in check and his expected high strikeout numbers are right where they should be. The fact that he’s inducing ground balls at a 58% clip is exciting at this point. I’d like to see him move up a level at mid season. He should be moving faster than his rotation mate Skaggs.

Ian Krol, OAK – An A’s 2009 draft pick and already considered a top prospect in the system. He’s a young lefty, only 19 years old, and he’s putting up the numbers. But he currently projects out as a back of the rotation starter. His frame doesn’t scream projection and he’ll need to add velocity if he is going to project better than he currently does. His current 1.86 ERA is in for a correction as well. So he’s someone to keep an eye on in MWL, but I see see more upside in names lower on this list.

Giovany Soto, DET – Check out our Breakdown of Soto for some real detail. But this is one of the top prospects to watch in the Midwest League. Just 19 years old, projectable frame at 6-3 and just 160lbs and he’s a lefty. His numbers? Excellent K%, good BB% and excellent GB%. He’s got good stuff and has a lot left to learn. This is one player that could rocket up lists in the near future.

Jacob Turner, DET – The Tigers 2009 #1 draft pick and the consensus #1 prospect in the system. He’s already been jumped to High A Lakeland. Turner is a beast. Big and throws nasty heat with a plus curveball. All he needs is time and the Tigers could very well have another Ace to match with Justin Verlander.

Shelby Miller, STL – Miller is the Cardinals #1 draft pick from 2009 and the Texas fireballer is in our Top 100 prospects for 2010. He’s striking out a ton of batters and his control has actually been better than I anticipated this season. He’s had some bad luck which has his ERA elevated but that will correct and he could have a dominant second half. Still one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball and he’s only 20.{+}

Charles Brewer, ARI – Unsung prospect that didn’t make any Dbacks Top Prospect lists this offseason, but we’ve been paying attention and he made it into our breakdown of the Arizona system as a prospect to watch this year. He’s doing it all right now. Low walks, high strikeouts and getting a good groundball rate. I’d like to see him in High A this year.

Fabio Martinez, LAA – Another Angels prospect pitcher and this kid throws gas. The hitters on this level have a hard time hitting him. He might top this list if he had any idea where the ball was actually going. His high walk rate at 18%+ is a glaring weakness. But his K% is off the charts at 33.1% and he keeps the ball on the ground. Once he makes some adjustments and gets his control in order this is a dangerous kid.

Matt Magill, LAD – We’re not sure anyone other than us and his teammates actually know that Matt Magill actually exists. You’ll be hard pressed to find any mention of him on the Internet outside of tight Dodgers sites like www.memoriesofkevinmalone.com. But Magill is putting up numbers that scream look at me. He’s 21 with a projectable frame, low 90s fastball that’s upticking and a plus slider. K rate of 30% with an 8.6% on the walks. Inducing 50% grounders. He’s doing something right.

Pat Corbin, LAA – Corbin makes this list seem like its weighted towards the Angels. It seems to be. He’s not the last mention. But his numbers are good. He’s only 21. He has good control and enough to keep MWL hitters guessing and driving the ball into the dirt 50% of the time.

Jerry Sullivan, SD – Sully is a big dude at 6-4 and 220lbs+. I won’t make fun of him going to Oral Roberts, no matter how tempting it might be. The Padres might have themselves a real innings eater in time. He gets a good amount of K’s with solid control and his fastball induces grounders at 53% clip. This is another pitcher I would like to see pressed into High A action this year to see what we really have. He could have back end of the rotation upside if he can continue to work low in the zone.

Elisaul Pimentel, LAD – Pimentel went the first 35 innings of the year giving up only a single earned run. That has since corrected, but he still has a 26.7% K rate which is excellent and keeps the ball on the ground. He’s going to get a call to High A soon and his ultimate upside might be in the bullpen. But the numbers so far this year are worthy of keeping him a starter for now.

Matt Packer, CLE – Brought to my attention by Dave Reiffer, our Midwest League scout. Packers numbers are kind of ridiculous. 23.9% K rate and he’s only walked 7 batters in 57 innings. His rate is at 64%. He’s almost 23, but this is a prospect that has snuck up on some people. His EAR will rise because the GB% isn’t sustainable but he’s still very solid. As a 23 year old I would like to see him already in a higher league. So the Indians will be moving him along within the next month I bet.

Chad Jenkins, TOR – Jenkins is a top draft pick of the Jays and is doing what is expected of a first rounder in the MWL. I honestly would like to see more from him at age 23. But he’s already gotten the call to Dunedin and we’ll get a good look at what he’s really made of during the rest of the minor league season.

Alexander Colome, TB – Colome is one of the Rays top prospects and his mid 90s fastball and hard 11-5 curveball rank at the top of the system. His control has always been the one glaring facet of his game that needed refining. It seems that he’s starting to work that out in the MWL.

Wilking Rodriguez, TB – Rodriguez is another top arm in the lower levels of the Rays system. He’s only 20 and is in his second season as a starter. He had a good 2009 and his 2010 is only getting better. His control is excellent and he works the mid 90s fastball with a power curve. He’s still only 160lbs and that includes a big lower half. So I’m not sure if there is projection here. But the numbers warrant attention.

Jake Odorizzi, MIL – The Brewers have finally taken the kid gloves off and have let Odorizzi loose. He’s responded with a 4/1 k/bb ratio and keeping the ball on the ground at a 47% clip. He still has room to fill out and add velocity to his low 90s fastball and his curve will grade as a plus pitch with time. This is the #1 Brewers prospect right now and he’s only 20.

Allen Webster, LAD – Webster is one of the top Dodgers prospects already and its not a surprise to see him on this list. He still has room for additional velocity on his low to mid 90s fastball because he’s still young and only 160lbs. His secondaries are a work in progress, but his 3/4 slot curveball has times of nastiness.

Trey McNutt, CHC – McNutt was the 980th pick of the 2009 draft. His fastball is now clocking in the mid 90s and his power curve is a second potential plus offering. With his control issues I think his future is in the bullpen and he could see himself get fast tracked as a reliever if the command doesn’t come around soon. But with the raw stuff we’re looking at a nice prospect who could be a workhorse.

Mike Belfiore, ARI – One of our Top 21 Dbacks, Belfiore is the top lefty in the system. He’s doing what makes him successful and keeping the ball on the ground. He’ll need to work on his command if he’s going to remain a starter though. Back end of the rotation starter upside with bullpen lefty as a backup.

Joe Gardner, CLE – Gardner got the call early up to High A Kingston in the Carolina League, but his numbers while in the MWL are worth noting. You’ll get more on Gardner in the Carolina League Touch’em All. But in short, he wasn’t on any top lists before the season. Well, he’s become one of the top Indians prospects with his 2010 performance.

Scott Shuman, TB – Shuman is a RP in the Rays system and while he’s not a top prospect in the system he’s ripping MWL hitters up in short stints. He has a long way to go before he reaches Tampa but he could find a home in the bullpen in time as dominant as he has been so far in 2010.

That’s it for the pitchers. Check back in a few days for the Hitters segment of the Midwest League Touch’em All.

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