Welcome to Baseball Instinct’s top 50 2010 MLB draft prospects. We’ve done a mini-break down of who we feel are the cream of the crop of the draft. Here’s part 1 of our 2 part segment, breaking down the top 25 of 50.
1. Bryce Harper C S. Nevada JuCo – Harper is the above elite level prospect in the draft. He’s being called a generational talent much the same as Stephen Strasburg was a year ago. Harper is much younger than Strasburg was and will come with an even heftier price tag. The team that takes Harper will have zero leverage and can expect to pay a record breaking deal to land him. He has a plus bat, with plus power, a plus arm with a plus work ethic. If he wasn’t such a perfect profile of a baseball star people might start to question his upside. Will he remain a catcher? It doesn’t really matter. He won’t be Yadier Molina on defense no matter how good he can be. He simply will never have enough time to master his trade behind the plate because his bat will have him in the majors before his 20th birthday.
2. Jameson Taillon RHP The Woodlands HS, Texas – Taillon is the premier arm in the draft and if the Nationals decide to pass on paying the biggest bonus in draft history then Taillon will be the first HS pitcher ever selected with the #1 overall pick. And he’ll be worthy of the honor. He’s a 6’6 225 lb beast with the a mid 90s fastball and the best curveball in the entire draft class without question. It already has plus depth and tilt.
3 . Chris Sale LHP Florida Gulf Coast U – A lot of scouting reports read backwards on Sale. Scouts worry that he may not hold up as a starter based on his frame. He’s 6’6 and 180lbs. They worry about his arm action yet he repeats very well and has plus command of the strikezone. He could easily pack on additional pounds with the proper training regimen. The biggest plus outside of his plus command is the fact that he already commands his changeup and it grades as a plus pitch. His fastball sits low 90s and he has a tight slider. He may need some time to better develop a strong breaking pitch and if he can he’s a strong bet to become a #2 starter.
4. Karsten Whitson RHP Chipley HS, Florida – A tall athletic pitcher with a mid 90s fastball and hard biting secondary with a slider that most scouts already call a legit major league pitch. His fastball creates hard boring action and his changeup has decent depth to project an average offering in the future. Some additional projected velocity and some good instruction could turn his strong frame and solid mechanics into a groundball/strikeout combo in the future. If he falls past the top 10 someone is going to get a steal.
5. Deck McGuire RHP Georgia Tech – McGuire has a workhorse build at 6’6 and 220 lbs and has proven durable during his college career while striking out a batter per inning. While he doesn’t have the upside of the arms above him on this list he does have 4 working pitches and a good ability to miss bats when he has them working. While he’s not going to be a dominant power pitcher due to his velo topping out in the low 90s he compliments well with a hard CB, Slider and an already major league average changeup.
6. Drew Pomeranz LHP Mississippi – A lefty with a low 90s fastball and nasty curveball that is already advance. His changeup is already a third workable pitch and there probably isn’t a lot of downside to his game. When he has his curveball working in tandem with his fastball he’s very tough and can induce high K rates. He still will need time to adjust to the major leagues and work on better command of the strikezone in order to lower his BB%. But a decent K rate and a solid lefty 3 pitch arsenal will keep him high in the 1st round. Whether he becomes a #2 or a back of the rotation starter will depend heavily on his ability to pound the strikezone.
7. Christian Colon SS/2B Cal State Fullerton – Colon has played SS through his college career but is better suited a power minded offensive second baseman. His swing is reminiscent of Dan Uggla using a upper cut hack to provide lift. Unlike Uggla, Colon has strikezone judgement to go along with excellent bat control and uses the entire field to his advantage. His arm and range are less than optimal to play at the next level, but a move back to 2B should be an easy one and his learning curve could be a short one.
8. Manny Machado SS Brito Private HS, Florida – Machado moved up the boards with his 2009 USA Baseball gold medal and then the 2010 HS performance showed it was for real. He’s a good size and has the range to stick at SS with average power and hit skill. We’re not talking about a special player here, but someone who should have a high percentage shot at being a major leaguer with some possible 20/20 seasons if he cracks his upside.
9. A.J. Cole RHP Oviedo HS Florida – Cole is complete projection mixed with here and now skills. He’s 6’5 and 190 lbs, still growing and still filling in. He should be 200 lbs+ in time. That room to grow and current mid 90s FB make me think that this is high 90s FB waiting in the wings. His CB is already an above average pitch with hard bite and he controls the pitch well. He has a rarely used changeup and will need time to grow into his body and really develop the third pitch, but this is the 2nd best bet in this draft to uncover a potential ace.
10. Dylan Covey RHP Maranatha HS, California - Covey is a workhorse in the making. He’s grown into his frame, pounds the zone with mid 90s fastballs and hard slider. His Curveball and Changeup also project as above average and he’s a good bet to move fast through the minors and help his team as a #3 starter who can eat innings and strike out opposing hitters at a good clip.
11. Yasmani Grandal C Miami - I’ve seen a lot of Grandal since he plays in my back yard and while he’s become a much better hitter in 2010, utilizing the whole field and cashing some of his raw power for contact and better pitch selection, he’s still not going to be much more than an average hitter at the next level. But league average from catcher is valuable and Grandal is a pretty sure bet to be productive. While he’s a capable defender he’s going to have a difficult time holding runners without extreme help from his pitchers since his arm average at best. This is a weak class at catcher and Grandal is the best available after some kid named Harper. So he’ll garner a spot in the top 20 picks. But that team will be reaching if they are looking for the future.
12. Gary Brown OF Cal State Fullerton - Blazing speed and finally coming into his own as an all around hitter. He’s never going to hit for above average power, but has enough pop to keep defenses honest and has enough speed to be very valuable on offense. If he can learn a more defined control of the strikezone and add to his bb% he could be a leadoff hitting CF in short order. The best bet in the 1st round to man CF for a major league team in the near future.
13. Brandon Workman RHP Texas – Workman has spent his time at Texas wisely becoming better each season. He knows how to pitch front to back and back to front. He has excellent control and his curveball is considered plus plus while his command of the pitch makes his FB and CU that much better. He strikes out batters at an excellent clip based more on his pitching prowess than his power, but should be able to continue that at the next level. A good bet to reach his #2-3 upside.
14. Matt Harvey RHP North Carolina – The top HS arm in the 2007 draft, Harvey went unsigned and has since struggled to regain top of the nation status. He has the goods with his mid 90s FB, works a low 80s slider and has a changeup that is workable. He’s going to get a first round consideration and then its going to take him a few years to reach his potential as a SP. Worst case scenario he’ll become a power reliever, but I think in the right situation he’s going to take the next step and become a solid rotation option somewhere around a 3 or 4.
15. Alex Wimmers RHP Ohio State – Wimmers has the most polished pitching arsenal in the draft and the numbers to prove that he’s ready almost immediately. He holds the best changeup in the draft class and its already a plus plus offering. His fastball sits low 90s with excellent command and he compliments the 2 pitches with a curveball that he can work to all four quadrants. He’s athletic and has a solid frame. Good chance of becoming a #3 starter and if he adds some additional velocity to his fastball he could be an average #2 starter.
16. Asher Wojciechowski RHP The Citadel – Wojciechowski holds the most difficult name to spell out the first round talents. He also holds a two pitch arsenal that would scream RP, but he has a workhorse 6’4 230 lbs frame that says he’ll be able to eat innings in the middle of a rotation somewhere. His slider is a plus offering and his fastball velocity is up to the mid 90s. He’ll need to work on a splitter or changeup to remain in a rotation. Expect that to happen.
17. Austin Wilson OF Harvard-Westlake School, California – Wilson is the premier HS talent in the draft now that Bryce Harper is technically a college player. Wilson has raw power off the charts, runs the 60 in sub 7 times and is built like a linebacker at 6’4 215 lbs. Defensively he’s a gamer and has a plus plus arm. The major concerns are his raw tools are a certain project. But so was another SoCal signee for the Florida Marlins who had this skill set. Signability may be an issue with a commitment to Stanford. So the kid is smart too. Look for a big money team to sign him away from Stanford.
18. Anthony Ranaudo RHP LSU – Ranaudo was the number one college pitcher coming into the season after dominating in the college WS last year. His hard downer FB sitting low to mid 90s and plus curve complimented with an above average change seemed to be the can’t miss combo in the draft. He’s even got the frame of a workhorse. A stress fracture in his forearm has unraveled all of the pluses. His FB is still there but his arm slot has dropped, command has taken a step back and questions about his health may have him drop to the last picks of the first round. If he can get healthy this is a high end SP. Someone is going to take the chance.
19. Stetson Allie RHP St. Edwards HS, Ohio – Allie has pure raw heat. Clocking high 90s at every stop and plus plus raw power as a hitter. He could easily be going in this draft as a hitter, but his plus plus fastball is what will get him drafted in the first round. His mechanics are all or nothing and extremely violent. His slider is second plus offering and he can dial it to 90 mph with hard and tight break. I think Allie will fall into the later part of the 1st round because of his lack of a third pitch and polish. He’s going to be a project and would probably be better served attending North Carolina to see if he can be the hitter his attitude says he might be. The chances of him becoming a bulldog SP is a long shot. But a dominant RP is a good bet.
20. Nick Castellanos 3B Archbishop McCarthy HS, Florida – Castellanos is going to be moving from SS to 3B where he profiles better as a power hitting corner. He has the hands for the hot corner, but the his swing gets long and there is some doubt as to his hit tool at the next level. His power is still developing and I think he’ll be above average, but he will struggle at each level. If he reaches the majors he’ll strike out too often to become a middle of the order hitter. But HRs should be league average.
21. Mike Choice OF Texas-Arlington – School career leader in Average and Home Runs, Choice is profiling as power hitting OF. While he won’t be able to stick in CF it won’t be because of a lack of speed. His speed grades as average but his defense doesn’t always play up. Another OF with excellent bat speed, Choice does strike out at a pretty fair clip. He’ll need to better his command of the strike zone in order for his power to translate and play up at a corner. He’s still just 21 and should eventually become a league average defender and hitter.
22. Ryne Stanek RHP Blue Valley HS Kansas - Stanek has an optimal pitchers build at 6’4 and 180 lbs with room to grow. When he came into the spring season popping mid 90s he went from draft hopeful to 1st round probable. His delivery is solid and although he does throw a bit cross body he does so with minimal effort deep into games. His curveball already has good tilt is a second plus pitch in the making. He will need time to master a changeup but has the plus stuff that can be molded into a possible front of the rotation starter.
23. Bryce Brentz OF Middle Tenn. State – Brentz is slipping on some draft boards based on a slow start and injury filled first month of the season but this is a solid bat with plus raw power. He’s going to hit a decent average profiling as a power hitting RF. He doesn’t have the cannon arm but does have enough average arm strength to hold his own. He’s a polished hitter who with some minor league development could turn into a 25+ annual Home run hitter.
24. Josh Sale OF Bishop Blanchet HS, Washington – The Good: Plus Plus Raw power and off the charts bat speed. He’s ultra coachable and very intelligent. The Bad: Below average arm, below average defender and below average speed. If he’s going to be a major leaguer, whatever team selects this project will need to break him down and start over again. Take his swing back to the basics to utilize his plus skills with a more quiet approach. This is a project and he may fall out of the first round even though he has the chance to be the best hitter to come out of this class. ( Geo’s note: I saw this kid live a few weeks ago. Tremendous plate discipline, he won’t swing at a bad pitch. I love the maturity and work ethics here, and the power is for real.)
25. Zack Cox 3B Arkansas - A solid 6′ and 215 lbs, Cox is a solid 3B right now but there are questions as to his ability to man the hot corner at the higher levels. He has a short lefty stroke and solid raw power, but his lefty swing is not classic and how much his raw power will translate with wood is the biggest question. He’ll be a solid average hitter even is he doesn’t meet his raw power capabilities. But for a corner infielder it may be a stretch.
