Baseball Instinct Top Prospects
New York Yankees Top 21
Welcome back to the Baseball Instinct Top 21′s prospect lists. We’re continuing our break down of each organizations Minor League system, working our way to the big city and up to the Bronx to take a look at the New York Yankees prospects who we believe are the top prospects in the system. We’ll highlight the Elite prospects in green and our Sleeper prospects in red so you’ll know who you should know right now and who you should be keeping a very close eye on.
The Elite of each system are the prospects we believe to have the most current value regardless of age, level of play or past production. These are the guys we think will be able to reach a high level of MLB production in time, whether they are knocking on the door or still a few years off. These are the Gems.
Our Sleeper prospects may or may not be names that you’ve already heard of, but either way, we think that before the 2010 season is over there’s a good chance that these are the guys who will be making a move up the charts.
Keep an eye out for our New York Mets and Baltimore Orioles Top 21′s coming up over the next two weeks.
1. Jesus Montero C 11/28/89
Montero is the top bat in the Yankees system regardless of where he ends up playing on defense in the long run. The Yankees still have him catching a few times per week with hopes that the additional time will make him at least a passable catcher. They’ve rushed him through the system the past two seasons because it’s Montero’s bat that is pushing the issue and he’s been very close to being ready to hit at the highest level. He has a short stride with great hand eye coordination and plus plus power. Those two tools are elite and shared by very few hitters. He’s struggling to start the 2010 season because he’s a 20 year old going up against much more advanced pitchers. Montero would have been better off starting the year back at AA until he was tearing the league up. But what’s done is done. It will take him time to adjust so our ETA stands pat where it was last year. While its doubtful that Montero will ever be a full time catcher it won’t really matter because he’s going to become an All Star with his bat in time.
ETA 2011
2. Slade Heathcott OF 11/28/1990
The top pick of the Yankees in the 2009 amateur draft, Heathcott is all tools and if his development goes right he has the makings of a 20/20 player with upside. He was one of the only legit five tool players in the 2009 draft and he’s an all out gamer. His bat speed is evident as a plus plus tool even at this early stage of his development. I don’t expect the power to start to translate until much later on his Slade’s development but he has the tools to be a future everyday OF in NY. The Yankees will need to give him a year at each level to refine his game and translate his tools into skills. ETA 2013
3. Austin Romine C 11/22/1988
Romine is the closest thing to a major league ready long term option to replace Jorge Posada as the Yankees have. With that said, Romine is still 2 years away and still learning to control the game from behind the plate. He has an excellent arm but gets himself in trouble throwing when he should be putting the ball away. I’m not sure the Yankees are going to hand over the catchers position to anyone less than a superstar when Posada retires so Romine will need tap into his raw power and become a home run threat if he’s going to stand a chance of becoming the heir apparent. He has the tools but still has development to go through. With that said, if Romine can remain with the Yankees through this trade deadline I think he has the tools to be a major league regular with some 20+ HR season while sporting a .260-.280 averages.
4. Gary Sanchez C 12/2/1992
The top international signing for the Yankees in 2009, Sanchez fits the mold that Montero did when he was signed. He’s a fringe catcher with excellent power potential. He’s just 16 and already 6-2 and 195lbs and his power is already visible. He has a solid linedrive stroke and a plus arm. While Montero is not going to remain a catcher the Yankees have hopes that Sanchez’ athleticism will allow him to grow as a catcher and stick behind the plate. With Romine and Cervelli holding the fort down over the next few years Sanchez will have the time to develop along with J.R. Murphy as the Yankees hope to find a home grown replacement for Jorge Posada.
5. J.R. Murphy C 5/13/1991
Another catcher in the Yankees system, Murphy, might actually be the best bet to become the long term answer behind the plate. He’s the most athletic of the bunch and already hits with an advanced approach that projects well for average. He will add average power in time but needs to learn the intricacies of being a full time catcher and leading a pitching staff. With a system as loaded with catchers as the Yankees currently are there is always the possibility that Murphy could be moved to 3B or the OF if his bat comes along quicker than his game calling skills. He’s athletic enough to handle either position switch. So while I like Murphy, my bet is still on Romine.
6. Zach McAllister RHP 12/8/1987
McAllister has been quietly moving up the ladder in the system for the last two years and now finds himself ready for shot an no place to go. McAllister is a sinkerballer in the Derek Lowe mold, he throws a hard low 90s sinker with good command to the corners and a slider with good tilt that induces a lot of groundballs as well. While McAllister isn’t going to strike a lot of hitters out, because he lacks a true knockout pitch, he does understand his strengths and plays to them well. As long as he can continue to force hitters to pound the ball into the ground he could find himself at the back end of a major league rotation in 2011. It just won’t be in New York.
7. Andrew Brackman RHP 12/4/1985
Brackman has been a nightmare signing for Yankees so far with a career of injury and under performance. But there is some light at the end of this tunnel and Brackman could in fact live up to the calling of a first round pick eventually. Brackman has had a lot working against him so far. Tommy John surgery caused his 2009 season to be a rehabbing year. Still working on his fastball command coming back from the surgery. He’s also very tall at 6’10 and has not been able to master a fluid delivery to this point. So far in 2010 Brackman’s command has been excellent. He’s giving up more home runs than I’d like to see but that’s because of his height and leaving the ball up in the zone when he loses his mechanics. He’s getting an excellent amount of groundballs which shows that there have been some major improvements to his delivery. If he can work on a downward plane and pound the bottom of the zone with a mid 90s fastball, an average curve and a changeup he’s going start making more hitters miss and man of his size has an advantage. He still needs time to develop his secondaries and regain some of his velocity, but he’s still a major talent and could top this list before all is said and done.
8. Dellin Betances RHP 3/23/1988
Betances has been in the Yankees system since 2006 but he’s only around 200 innings into his development. The 6-8, 220 lbs Betances is build like a workhorse but his injury history might hint at something different. After a breakout 2008 season that had him rocket up prospect charts he came into 2009 struggling eventually giving way to Tommy John surgery. The lost 2009 caused him to virtually drop off of most top prospect lists for the Yankees. Betances was dialing mid 90s heat with the making of a plus curveball before taking to TJ in 2009. The surgery shouldn’t change either of those potentials. This is still a top pitching prospect. He still has huge upside. He still has 2 full seasons of development time needed but 2010 should put him back on radars and 2011 is going to have him in Top 100 lists.
9. Manny Banuelos LHP 3/13/1991
Banuelos is an undersized lefty out of Mexico. His performance in the first half of 2009 opened a lot of eyes in the organization but he tailed off in the second half and tired down the stretch. He’s still very young and has time to add weight to a possible 6′ frame. He’s currently under 160 lbs. His fastball sits around 90 when he’s going strong and should be able to get it into the low 90s in the future which is currently his peak right now. If he can continue to develop his changeup he’ll have two above average pitches since he’s a lefty. But his curveball isn’t developed and could be more of a slider in time. I think he profiles better as a long reliever and maxes out as a #5 starter. His command is excellent so he may outperform expectation on guile alone and reach the SP upside. It won’t be with the Yankees though.
10. Bryan Mitchell RHP 4/19/1991
Mitchell was picked up in the 16th round in 2009 and is probably going to go down as a late round steal when all is said and done. He’s already 6-2 and 175 so the frame is there with room to grow. He already throws a 2 seam fastball in the low 90s with a feel for a changeup and a plus 12-6 curveball which is considered one of the best in the system already. So this kid has upside to spare right now. He’s this high on the list based on his upside. Barring injury he will move fast into full season ball and then take it one step at a time.
11. Graham Stoneburner RHP 9/29/1987
6-1, 190. Mid 90s fastball. He has plenty working against him in his size and lack of a true changeup, but don’t tell him that. Stoneburner has been mowing down hitters at a 27% clip so far this season. He could stand to lower his walk rate a bit, but again, he’s still working at a 4/1 ratio. The reason he’s been working around the walks is that his fastball has good downward movement and induces groundballs at a 60% rate. While he’s undersized his stuff simply plays up. Groundballs and strikeouts. It’s a combination that has proven successful for many pitchers in the past regardless of size. If Stoneburner can turn his changeup into an average pitch to go along with an above average slider he’s going to be a hot commodity for the Yankees rotation in about 18 months.
12. Mark Melancon RP 3/28/1985
Melancon has already seen some time in the Bronx and its widely known that this isn’t the profile of a SP. While I would normally only comment in an after thought of a RP who’s already made his debut I’ve actually liked Melancon right along side David Robertson over the past couple of years and Robertson has made an excellent transition into a relief role in New York. I think Melancon will have success in the bullpen as well once he reigns in the walks. He’s always been able to force groundballs and has enough on the fastball to strike out a fair amount of hitters. The bb% has never been bad in the in the minors and should revert to the mean with time in New York. Is he a closer? Not in NY. A setup man? Not in the Bronx. But a viable major leaguer and closer/setup man elsewhere. Yes.
13. Jose Ramirez RHP 1/21/1990
Ramirez is a young Dominican righthander who currently sits in the low to mid 90s on his fastball with an average changeup which has the potential to be plus within the next season. He’s still just 160lbs and has room to fill out his 6’2 frame. If he adds some velocity we’re talking about a plus that isn’t even needed. He separates his fastball and changeup combo already and with some work on a curveball he’ll have the three pitches needed to stay in the rotation. He’s already striking out close to a batter per inning in full season ball and keeps his walks to a manageable level. Great for a young pitcher. Worst case scenario here with Ramirez is a solid reliever. But I think we’re looking at a future mid rotation starter. Probably a sleeper in the system.
14. Ivan Nova RHP 1/12/1987
Nova gets a fair amount of ground balls and at 6-4 and 210 lbs that’s a good sign for someone trying to stick in a rotation spot. He throws on a solid downhill plane with a low 90s fastball. His secondaries are average at best so he’s never going to become a front line starter. With that said he may fill in some time as a long reliever or be used as trade bait for the Yankees. Nova is fully capable of being a back end starter for 80% of MLB teams. He’s actually going to be better suited in the rotation somewhere than he will be in the bullpen.
15. David Adams 2B 5/15/1987
Drafted in 2008, Adams, has done nothing but hit under the radar. He’s not a name you hear in the prospect ranks often. He has above average bat speed and excellent bat control. Adams hits gap to gap and his power is starting to come on. He could hit 10-15 HRs per year with a doubles to spare. He gets on base with a good k to bb ratio and while he’s not a speedster by any means, he’s smart on the bases. He can stick at 2B and has the arm for 3B so a utility role in New York might be in his future and some starting time outside of the Bronx could be there as well. I like his chances, but doubtful about him ever being above average.
16. Corban Joseph 2B 10/28/1988
Corban Joseph and David Adams are neck and neck in the system as the best 2B prospects. Like Adams, Joseph, has enough arm to play 3B, but profiles better as a 2B. Unlike Adams though, he has a sweet lefty swing that profiles for above average power in time. My concerns come with contact rates as Joseph strikes out at a much higher clip than he takes walks. If he can’t remedy that he’s going to have continued troubles with slumps at the higher levels which will negate his higher power potential. He has more upside than Adams, but I think he also has a lower floor.
17. Jeremy Bleich LHP 6/18/1987
Bleich has excellent stuff for a lefty, with a low 90s fastball and potential plus curveball. His changeup is average at best because it lacks movement so he’ll need to add to the pitches development before his upside can be realized. Right now, Bleich walks too many batters and isn’t dominant enough to overcome that shortcoming even with an above average groundball rate. If he can add to the changeup and uptick his command he’s a good fit for the back end of a rotation.
18. Eduardo Nunez SS 6/15/1987
Nunuez has been in the system since 2005 and at the time there was room for him to grow and add some power with the chops to stay at SS long term. He never grew. Never added power. But he hits the ball on a very consistent basis now. While he doesn’t draw enough walks to be a useful full time player he does have the glove and on base skills to be a useful utility man. He has good speed but again doesn’t utilize it well enough to be a leadoff type. So while the average and OBP look good it may not be solid enough to ever justify a spot on the Yankees roster.
19. Hector Noesi RHP 1/26/1987
Noesi is a control first pitcher and coming back from TJ surgery last year it was evident that wasn’t going to change. Normally it takes pitchers a full season to really regain their command, but for Noesi he came right back hitting his spots. While his k/bb ratio has been excellent throughout his minor league career he isn’t doing it with anything near a dominant repertoire. His fastball sits low 90s at its best and he doesn’t have an above average secondary. With that being the case he needs to get by on guile and command. His mechanics lack deception and he doesn’t get near enough groundballs. If he doesn’t improve on his curveball to go along with his changeup he’s going to be very predictable at the higher levels and will start to get hit hard. He’s a back end starter at best to this point and I really don’t see a future in a rotation regardless of his current career strikeout numbers.
20. Kelvin DeLeon OF 10/29/1990
DeLeon makes the list based on tools. He’s a five tool talent with one skill. Power. He strikes out too much, walks too little. But his power is elite at an early age and the Yankees are already working with him on shortening the stroke and he’s responded to the changes without losing too much of his raw isolated power. This is a power armed right fielder in the making if the Yankees give him enough time to really refine his skills. He’s still very young and hasn’t even advanced to full season ball until this 2010 season. I’ve been watching this kid since the DSL and I think he has a shot to become an everyday major leaguer within the next 3 years. He shows natural loft and once he fills out he’s going to be a 6-2, 200+ lbs. The raw power translates with his body type. He’s a long way off, but he’s one to watch this year. If the bb% rises and the k rate gets better he’s going to shoot up the charts.
21. Melky Mesa OF 1/31/1987
This is the other five tool talent in the Yankees system. I put DeLeon and Mesa back to back because they have a very similar tool set. Mesa is 3 years the senior and has already reached highA ball. The Isolated Power is very similar and so is the bb/k rates. Mesa is going to need to clean up his judgement of the strikezone and he’s going to need to it quickly. If he can we’re looking at a 20/20 player. The chances of Mesa making that jump are less than that of DeLeon because Mesa is older and behind on development. I like DeLeon’s chances more than Mesa’s by far, but Mesa has the tool set you don’t ignore until its clear the player isn’t going to make the jump.
Some more names to watch:
David Phelps RHP 11/9/1986
Adam Warren RHP 8/25/1987
Cito Culver SS 11/26/1992
D.J. Mitchell RHP 5/13/1987
Caleb Cotham RHP 11/6/1987
2010 Draft
The First Rounder
Cito Culver SS 11/26/1987
Culver is the 1st round pick for the Yankees in 2010. He’s already signed to an uncharacteristic sub $1mm first round bonus. The Yankees had better names available to take at this spot but went with an unproven High School SS from upstate New York. I’m not sure that Culver, as a defense first infielder, will stick at SS long term. His arm is above average but his range is average at best. He is a switch hitter with excellent athletic ability but he hasn’t translated the athletic ability into high end baseball tool much less skills.
The One They Need To Sign
Gabe Encinas RHP 12/21/1991
Encinas is a High School righthander with a mid 90s fastball that rides up in the zone with late life. It’s already a plus pitch. His curveball is above average as well and can be used as a strikeout pitch. This is the pick that can make the draft a success. But a commitment to Loyola Marymount will need to be bought out.
The System
The Yankees system has suffered because of failed signings and gutting the system for Javier Vazquez this winter. But the systems top end is still very talented and could produce some excellent major leaguers in time from both the offensive and pitching sides. Montero, Heathcott and Romine are all high end prospects with the bat and Brackman and Betances are two towering righties that I think are severely undervalued by most venues. Both could in time become front end starters.
My sleeper for the system is Betances. Sometimes we forget too quickly how high an upside some guys have when they fall out of the news based on injury. He’s back in 2010 and could start lighting up the boards once more.
Another sleeper is Jose Ramirez. No one talks about him. But the kid has the goods to open up some eyes this year.
Check back soon for our New York Mets Top 21.
Saland75
Jun 22. 2010
what about Brandon Laird?
Thomas Belmont
Jun 22. 2010
Brandon Laird has surprised me this year by actually jumping his Isolated Power even higher than it was in 2009. But the current .251 isn’t sustainable and will drop back as he moves up to the next level.
Along with that regression is the fact that his K rate is on the rise his bb% is on the decline.
He’s a very similar hitter to his brother Gerald and the skill set might not translate well. He’ll hit for power, a .250 average and be below average on the bases.
With that said, based on his performance thus far in 2010 he probably should have gotten a mention.
This also gives me the opportunity to mention Zolio Almonte, an OF in the Sally League for the Yankees, who’s showing some excellent power potential and has some speed to kick in. Almonte is already 21 and not very big at around 165 lbs but if he adds some muscle to his frame he’s an intriguing prospect.
Last but not least I want to mention Shaeffer Hall, a LHP who after starting the season with Almonte in the Sally League has now moved to the FSL. He hasn’t missed a beat. He has a solid 3 pitch arsenal hilighted by a plus changeup. His fastball is below average but he locates well. He’s one to watch but upside might be a #5 starter because of his velocity.
Saland75
Jun 25. 2010
thank”s for the reply
Saland75
Jun 25. 2010
David Phelps RHP has been a nice suprise