Welcome back to Baseball Instinct’s series: Chin Music. We’re taking a quick snap shot of key player’s in each organization’s major league club as well as their minor league system. This isn’t a “point out the obvious” elite players. We are taking a look at player’s in situations that could help your fantasy team or be a good addition to your fantasy farm. This time we are going to look at the Atlanta Braves. The Braves have the best record in baseball, despite one of their key players going onto the disabled list – Jason Heyward.
Team: Atlanta Braves
Record: 50-35 (1st in the NL East)
Payroll: $84 million (15th in Baseball)
The Atlanta Braves are 15 games over .500 and are 3 games ahead of the New York Mets. It’s unclear if the Braves will make a move before the trade deadline to improve, but with Matt Diaz back and Jason Heyward and Nate McLouth due back after the All-Star break, they feel like they have enough to contend with.
Major Leaguer: Jason Heyward OF
Baseball Instinct’s #1 prospect going into the 2010 season, Heyward hasn’t disappointed in his 255 big league at bats. He’s hitting .251 with 11 hr’s, 45 rbi, 41 runs, and 5 stolen bases. Unfortunately, he went on the DL on June 26th with a thumb injury. The good news is that he is due to start taking batting practice and may play in the All-Star game. He’s still on a pace for 500 ab’s and a line of .251-23-94-85-10. Which, with the time off he is unlikely to hit the wall like so many rookies do, and could better those numbers – especially the average and hr’s. For fantasy leaguers, you’re not going to sneak up on anyone if you try to trade for him, but he’s been out long enough you might find someone making a a push to win a title who might deal him. He makes for a great keeper.
Minor Leaguer: Freddie Freeman 1B
The future for the Atlanta Braves is Freddie Freeman. The 20 year old from Orange, California is hitting .284 with 10 hr’s, 49 rbi, 36 runs, and 2 sb in282 ab’s at AAA Gwinnett.
As we do in each Chin-Music segment, we will turn things over to Baseball Instinct’s minor league expert Tom Belmont.
Tom : Freeman has been one of the top Braves prospects for since 2008. He showed impressive power in Low A when he hit 18 HR and 33 2B. He chipped in 95 RBI that year with a .315 average and was showing up on Top 100 lists in 2009.
In 2009 some of the expected power dissipated and he didn’t handle an aggressive jump to Double A very well. But he was just 19 at the time of the promotion so the drop in production was understandable.
Let’s take a look at the peripherals to see how the 2010 season is sparking even more hope for Freeman.
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You can see from the IsoP in 2008 and an almost exact match in 2010. The power is back and this time he’s doing it in Triple A. So the Braves took the 2009 Double A disappointment and moved him to Triple A anyway. Confidence boost for the kid and he’s responded across the board.
270 AB with 22 2B and 10 HR with 47 RBI.
With excellent defense at 1B and a solid bat with above average power, Freeman, is the firstbaseman of the future in Atlanta. The future could be the trade deadline.
Major Leaguer: Jair Jurrjens SP{+}
Jurrens has made 2 starts since coming off a 2 month stint on the disabled list. For the Season he is 1-3 with a 5.40 era, 25 k’s, and 16 walks. In his starts back he’s gone 1-0 with a 2.75 era, with 10 k’s and 5 walks in 11 innings. He’s not going to improve on the 14 wins and 215 innings pitched in 2009, but he could be a valuable asset to the middle of a fantasy rotation down the stretch. He’s a buy low candidate and worth giving a shot. He won 27 games and struck out nearly 300 batters over the past 2 seasons.
Minor Leaguer: Robinson Lopez SP
The 19 year Dominican is 3-5 with a 3.48 era, with 61 k’s, and 29 walks over 72.1 innings at Low-A Rome of the South Atlantic League.
Here’s Tom Belmont again to give you a little of his insight on Lopez.
Tom: Lopez isn’t a secret in Braves circles, but in prospecting circles he’s a name not normally tossed around. But a 6-2, 190 lbs 19 year old in his second US season showing signs of success is something to talk about.
Lopez has a low 90s fastball and an above average curveball. He shows a good feel for pitching down in the zone already shown by his 50+ GB%. With his current K rates flashing some dominance, if he can strengthen his changeup while adding velocity as he fills out, he’ll have 3 average to above average pitches. High ceiling pitcher here.
Major Leaguer: Martin Prado 2B
The 26 year old Prado started to make his mark on major league baseball in 2008 and continued to improve in 2009, yet has been largely unrecognized in fantasy circles, except for a few owners who have paid attention. So here we are in 2010 and Prado is hitting .336 with 10 hr’s, 39 rbi, 61 runs, and 4 sb. He’s on a pace to have a line of .336-19-74-116-8 over 691 ab’s – All career highs. What may be the most impressive about that is the pace of 229 hits, 47 doubles, and 4 triples. That’s exactly why fantasy points leaguers love him. Only Robinson Cano is having a better season as a 2B, and it’s likely most owners are not aware of this. You’re not going to get Prado for free, but you will likely find him easier (or cheaper) than Cano, Brandon Phillips, Rickie Weeks, Dan Uggla to obtain for the stretch run. He’s one of those players that you can justify making a push to win now with or If you’re considering rebuilding for next year, he too makes for a nice keeper.
Minor Leaguer: Mike Minor SP
Mike Minor is 4-6 with a 3.61 era, 124 k’s, and 39 walks over 99.2 innings between AA and AAA.
One last time we turn it over to Tom Belmont as he gives you a quick break down on Minor.
Tom: Minor was the Braves 2009 1st Round pick out of Vandy. As a lefty with a plus changeup, I would normally have been all over him. But his fastball is fringe and in college he sometimes worked in the high 80s. The pitch although not above average based on velocity is an average pitch due to his ability to add and subtract from it. Minor does possess 3 other pitches that are average to plus with the aforementioned changeup being one of the best changeups in the minor leagues.
Minor baffled Southern League hitters to start the season and struck out 109 in only 87 innings while inducing moregroundouts than flyouts. The Braves ignored a high ERA and walk rate and pushed Minor to Triple A. He’s responded with two excellent July outings, winning 2 games with a 1.47 ERA and striking out 15 in 12.2 IP.
As a lefty showing this much success this early and possessing enough pitches to keep major league hitters off balance and guessing, Minor could be a part of the Braves rotation in 2011.
Check out our next edition of Chin Music when we do a quick hit on the Los Angeles Dodgers.
