Welcome back to Baseball Instinct’s series: Chin Music. We’re taking a quick snap shot of key player’s in each organization’s major league club as well as their minor league system. This isn’t a “point out the obvious” elite players. We are taking a look at player’s in situations that could help your fantasy team or be a good addition to your fantasy farm. This time we are going to take a look at the Los Angeles Dodgers. Each Chin Music will give some background on a team and report on three major leaguers and three minor leaguers. So let’s begin!
Team: Los Angeles Dodgers
Record: 49-42 (4th place in NL West)
Payroll: 95 million (10th in baseball)
The Los Angeles Dodgers, at mid-season, are still in the hunt for the NL division title. Four games behind the league leading San Diego Padres, the Dodgers are only a half game back from Colorado and a game and a half from second place San Francisco. If the playoffs were to start today, the Dodgers would be in line for a wildcard spot.
So here are our Chin Music profiles for you:
Major Leaguer: Andre Ethier OF
Andre Ethier has been in the big leagues since 2006. Each year, he has shown significant improvements in nearly all aspects of the game, particularly his power numbers. In 2009, he broke out with 31 homeruns and 106 rbi, compared to the 20 hr and 77 rbi from the previous year. At 28-years-old, Ethier is hitting his stride as a ballplayer.
The beginning of 2010 was no different. Ethier’s April and May bare witness to possible Triple Crown candidate. In 125 at bats, he hit .392, with 11 hr and 38 rbi. Then on May 15, Andre fractured his right little finger while taking batting practice. On the 15-day DL, Andre rehabbed with a splint on this finger. Ethier came back to the Dodgers on May 31 as scheduled.
Through June, Andre struggled, batting .229 with 1 hr and only 9 rbi. July has seen him back to his old self with a .380 BA and 3 hr and 8 rbi, but we still have the second half of the month to go. In the process, Ethier was rewarded with his first ever appearance in the All Star game. Currently, his line reads: .322- 15hr- 55 rbi. If fantasy owners want him, the time to get him cheaply was during his injury. Ethier is back. And who knows what next season will bring?
Next, our prospect expert Tom Belmont will detail some bright spots of the LA farm system for you. Tom, it’s all yours.
Minor Leaguer: Kenley Jensen RP
Tom: Remember the big lanky catcher for the Netherlands in the 2009 WBC. Kenley Jansen… all 6-4 220lbs of him. Many wondered why the talented catcher wasn’t a household name in the Majors since he was the starter for a World Team. Well… a .229/15/97 line over 5 minor league seasons is the reason. His bat simply was not the same caliber of a tool as his plus plus arm that made him a successful catcher. So the Dodgers did what any team would do with a failed prospect with a great arm. They put him on the mount and told him to blow hitters away while teaching him to harness his pure stuff and perfect a slider.
With a mid 90s fastball in 2009, Jansen was able to put up a 32.8% K rate. But as expected it came along with a 19% walk rate. This was all in just 11.2 innings. So 2010 was supposed to be a year of growth for Jansen and so far, that’s exactly what it is. Back in High A to start the year 38.4% K rate and control came with it at 8.2%. He’s already jumped to Double A with only 29.2 innings under his belt on the mound.
The jump to Double A has seen a 43/15 K/BB which actually jumps his K rate to an insane 43.4%. He still has control issues, but that should click one day. My biggest concern is with a very low GB%. Only 27% in Double A. If he becomes a fly ball pitcher it will be tough to be a late inning stopper. So while he’s made the jump to Double A I really think it will be at least another year while he learns to work the bottom of the zone and really get a feel for where the ball is going.
We’re talking about a minuscule sample size so far for this converted catcher. But if it all goes right he could be a dominant late inning reliever in the mold of Rafael Soriano, another converted position player.
Major Leaguer: James Loney 1B{+}
The story on James Loney is less about what skills he does have than the one skill that hasn’t developed yet: power. As a part-time player (344 at bats) in 2007, Loney hit a respectable 15 homers and drove in 67 runs, hitting .331. His slugging percentage was .538. Fantasy leaguers collectively wiped drool from their chins. Unfortunately, in the years that followed, his power didn’t increase and he never came close to slugging that high. This year, in particular, is trending to be the worst homerun output of his career. Seems that his homers of the past are now becoming doubles.
But instead of wallowing in the player Loney could be, lets take a look at the player his is. This season, Loney is hitting .309 with 64 rbi with half the season to go. If he stays healthy, which hasn’t been a problem in his career, he’s a shoe-in for at least 100 rbi, maybe 120. His batting average has always been around .285 -.300. Its actually hard to find such a consistent player. He’s a Mark Grace who hits clean-up. So he’ll probably never be thought of as a top player at his position due to the lack of real power, but he can be had later in your fantasy draft or at a discount in your auction, but still provide very good production.
Minor Leaguer: Dee Gordon SS
Tom Belmont has some interesting thoughts on Dee Gordon, check it what he has to say:
Tom: Going from the physical specimen that is Jansen to the slight of frame Gordon. Early in the season I mentioned that Gordon would need to improve his command of the strike zone if he was every going utilize his one true elite tool. His speed. We’re 82 games into the season and Gordon has walked 21 times with a .332 OBP. The fact that he’s managed 33 SBs is a true testament to just how special his speed is. He warrants comparisons to Juan Pierre, but he doesn’t have near the bat control of Pierre.
Gordon has a .279 average on the season which is well below his career numbers of .329 in 2008 and .301 in 2009.
With a small frame and not much of a chance to be more than 170 lbs in the future the outlook of having any power develop for Gordon is extremely slim at best. So Gordon is going to have to be a .300 hitter and learn to work counts and get on base. He could be a speedy SS or more likely a CF in the future. I still hold out hope for him learning to get on base. But as far as being a #1 prospect or elite on any level at this point is simply not true.
His speed is elite. He is not.
Major Leaguer: Clayton Kershaw SP
Like Andre Ethier, Clayton Kershaw has made big jumps in development each year, but unlike Ethier, Kershaw is only 22 years old and this is only his third year in the majors. With in only half a season’s work, Kershaw sports a 2010 line of 9 wins and a 3.16 ERA with 129 strikeouts and a 1.25 WHIP in 116.2 innings. Projected to a full season of production, with fatigue being a possible obstacle, Clayton is looking at 16-18 wins, about the same ERA, and over 200, possibly 230 strikeouts. And there doesn’t seem to be any reason that he won’t be able to repeat this performance year in and year out. The tall lefty just keeps getting better and better.
He’s the perfect pitcher to build your fantasy team around. Good luck prying him from another owner’s grip, though.
Minor Leaguer: Jerry Sands 1B
While Dee Gordon is sans power, Sands is certainly not. One last time, lets turn things back over to Tom Belmont.
Tom: Jerry Sands was not an unknown prospect heading into the season. He’s shown flashes of elite power and a true bat capable of hitting for average as well through his first two pro seasons. IsoP of .217 in 2008 and then .337 and .250 at two levels in 2009. He hits the ball hard, knows how to work the count and doesn’t get beat by bad pitches. So he climbed the ranks in the Dodgers system.
Starting the season in Great Lakes of Low A right where he left off in 2009 it was expected that he would take a step in development as a 22 year old in Low A. .332/18/46 with 14 SB in 244 AB. He crushed Low A to a tune that even due to his age was not expected. The Dodgers jumped Sands to Double A where his age is more appropriate and he would be on a more even talent level with the other players.
Someone forgot to tell Sands that he should be slowing down since he playing against people his own age and older now. In 66 AB he has 6 HR with 16 RBI and is batting .328. Sands has a special bat. Elite power and excellent hand eye coordination for a big man. While he’s not naturally fast he is quick and can steal and base and range in the OF. He’s not far off from being major league ready. I expect his ETA to be some time in 2011 moving to LF.
With his skill set he could be a .285 hitter and post some 30+ HR seasons in his prime.
That does it for Chin Music this week. Check back next time when we give you 3 up and 3 down on the Chicago Cubs.
