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Prospect Watch: Chris Balcom-Miller

Tuesday afternoon, the Boston Red Sox sent reliever Manny Delcarmen to the Colorado Rockies for prospect Chris Balcom-Miller. Four and a half games out in the wild card race, the Rockies had recently lost reliever Manny Corpas to injury while set-up man Rafael Betancourt has been struggling with an abdominal issue, and it is likely that Delcarmen will be counted on to help take some of the innings those two had been pitching. While Delcarmen has been in severe decline since his strong 2008, moving to the weaker NL West could well result in some improvement in his numbers. However, the question on most peoples’ minds has not seemed to be what Delcarmen brings to the table…it’s who exactly is this Chris Balcom-Miller guy?

Chris Balcom-Miller:

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Statistics: CBM has the exact combination of peripherals you like to see in a pitching prospect. He has excellent control that he’s maintained all year (every month his BB% has been between 4 and 5%), a high K-rate with a moderate upward trend over the course of the season, and an extremely high GB rate. That said, Asheville is a Southern Atlantic League team, which means that individual pitching statistics aren’t as impressive as they’d be anywhere else (the SAL is a huge pitchers league). Asheville itself is one of the better hitters parks in the league, and CBM’s H/R splits show this (3.72 ERA at home, 2.98 away); however, as CBM’s peripherals are extremely similar at home and on the road, that’s really nothing to worry about.

Stuff: Balcom-Miller has shown a four pitch repertoire this season, with a sinker, cutter, slider, and changeup. Of those two pitches, his sinker and slider appear to be his bread and butter. While CBM does not have huge velocity (he operates in the 88-92 range), he combines strong command with good movement. While I’ve come across conflicting reports on the movement of his fastball, I think that’s due to a failure to differentiate his cutter and his sinker (some reports say his fastball shows plus horizontal movement with a little drop, others seem to indicate more of a pure sinker), but in any event praise for the pitch is fairly universal. It’d be nice if he could up the velocity, and given his frame (6-2, 190) I think that’s still possible. CBM’s slider is his best secondary offering, and is regarded as a potentially plus pitch. CBM throws the pitch in the low 80s with good movement, and importantly he throws it out of the same slot as his fastball, which adds to the deception of the pitch. Finally, while reports on Balcom-Miller’s changeup differ, it appears to have a good chance at eventually becoming a league average pitch, though its likely still a bit of a work in progress at the moment.

Mechanics: CBM’s mechanics are a wee bit jerky. While he hides the ball well, drawing it very low behind his hip, in doing so he has an extended hitch before progressing into his forward motion that needs to be smoothed out if at all possible. One other issue that did stand out was the inconsistency in his leg kick, as on some pitches he’s got a really high leg kick going, while on others it’s a much more subdued motion. This is not a huge issue, but something that might merit a little work. That said, Balcom-Miller shows a smooth arm action, and there is clearly some deception in his delivery, so while his mechanics could use some smoothing out, they don’t seem to pose a long term issue.

Our Instinct: Chris Balcom-Miller is a good pickup for the Red Sox. I like the fastball/slider combo, I like the command, and there doesn’t seem to be any huge negatives with the kid. Sure the fastball could stand to pick up a little bit of velocity, but movement and the ability to locate can make even a slower fastball into a plus pitch. Obviously the big challenge will come in the next year or two as he advances into AA, as that will really determine how much he’s gotten by on pitchability, how much he can develop his changeup, and whether or not his raw stuff will be good enough to take him to the MLB. Worst case scenario, he could always be put in relief in the hopes that that gives his fastball a little bit more juice, and allows him to showcase his fastball/slider combination. Given the Red Sox’s fading playoff chances, and Delcarmen’s declining abilities, the Red Sox did very well in this trade.

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Sean wrote his thesis in economics on the labor market of Major League Baseball, and has worked in the past as a consultant with Project Prospect.

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