This is the first installment of our Top Prospects in 2011. We’ll look at 1 through 50 and then we’ll get deeper. I started with the Top 50 because everyone is doing it and it seems to be the prerequisite each season. But we’ll follow that up with the rest of the 100 and beyond as we look around each league for breakouts and sleepers.
Jesus Montero, C Yankees
1. 
Jesus Montero C NYY – Montero is the most advanced bat in the minors. Plus hit tool with plus power. Good chance to stick at C and be average defensively. Ranked #9 last year but a second half tear and age to level make him special even if he’s not a C long term in most minds.
Bryce Harper, OF Washington Nationals
2. 
Bryce Harper OF WAS – The teen prodigy. ++ Power and a great work ethic. He’s a gamer who knows nothing but baseball. Should be a senior in High School and he’s playing pro ball. He’ll probably make it to AA this season with Washington in his sights some time late in 2012. Depending on how his pitch recognition and command of the strike zone develop he’s a .250 or a .285 hitter with elite power. All Star either way.
3. 
Mike Trout OF LAA – 5 tools and will stick in CF. He’ll steal bases and hit for some power. Legit all around player who busted out in 2010. Any one of the top 3 could have been #1 for 2011. Ranked just outside of our top 100 last year. Drastically misread the contact ability and amazing season puts him here.
4. 
Eric Hosmer 1B KC – Hosmer is the best pure hitter of the KC system. I think he has the tools to play the OF at a high level if Kila can produce for KC at an above average level at 1B. So we may see the transition some time in 2011 for a 2012 debut. But bat is the best in the organization at 1B so he may force the issue. Ranked #78 last year as we predicted the bounceback.
5. 
Michael Pineda SP SEA – Man child at 6-7 and has a plus fastball with hard sink. He gets his K’s and GO’s so his tight slider and average changeup will allow him to mature while in the majors if the Mariners pencil into the rotation. Expect some growing pains, but he has the attitude to think he belongs. Could settle into a #2 or take over as the Ace if King Felix leaves town in 2011.
6. 
Domonic Brown OF PHI – Brown made it to Philly in 2010 and seems poised to take over RF some time in 2011. He still needs some time to develop his pitch recognition fully but in time could be a perennial 20/20 player eventually developing enough power to hit 30 HRs as the speed wanes.
Shelby Miller, RHP Cardinals
7. 
Shelby Miller SP STL – Miller will need to build up his innings, but we’re looking at a frontline starter in the making with Texas heat ++FB. He has a solid frame and is learning to harness what should be an above average CB and CU. Should power through the FSL and onto AA by midseason with a shot at St. Louis in 2012.
8. Mike Moustakas 3B KC – Not much difference in the positioning of the KC star prospects on this list. Moustakas is the most advanced based on level and should see KC full time in 2012. He’s never going to be an on base machine but he possesses a great bat tool and the best power in the KC organization. Expect him to stick at 3B and hit 4th in KC. ETA mid 2011.
9. 
Jeremy Hellickson SP TB – #22 on this list last season, he’s ready now and will fall off this list in short order. Expect some growing pains but he’s a pitchers pitcher. Gets GO’s at a high rate and has the arsenal to shut down a major league lineup. Pen him into the Rays rotation for the next 6 years.
10. Wil Myers OF KC – Another plus bat for KC. Ranked #48 last year and he didn’t disappoint. We predicted the bat would be too advanced for him to become a major league catcher. Now that he’s moved to the OF expect his bat to mature quickly and his solid pitch recognition to make him a perrenial .300+ hitter with above average power coming over the next few seasons. ETA 2012.
11. 
Zach Britton SP BAL – A workhorse lefty who pounds down in the zone with 4 above average pitches. He’s ahead of the curve and knows how to pitch a pitchers game. He’s never going to dominate with high K rates but an excellent GB% will make him a good bet to succeed long term against any lineup and he’s looked like he’s MLB ready in ST.
Brandon Belt, 1B Giants
12. Matt Moore SP TB – Minor League strikeout king topped 200 K’s in 2010. He still has some development to go through and probably isn’t an ace type, but a good bet to be a solid #3 with #2 upside because of his high strikeout potential. If the Rays give him 2011 and some time in 2012 to refine his command he’s going to be a devastating #3 starter for them when they go Price, Hellickson, Moore.
13. 
Brandon Belt 1B SF – Another prospect that came out of nowhere in 2010 to shoot up the charts. While he could use an additional few months in AAA to settle in from the ride he took in 2010, it seems that his time in SF might be now.
14. Manny Banuelos SP NYY – Banuelos is a diminutive lefty just turned 20, but has the mount presence of a veteran already. His plus change and plus FB are both major league ready and he mixes in a potential plus CB at times. He still needs at least another year in the minors before his innings are built up enough to survive a major league season. But the Yankees may need him sooner and his outstanding command makes him a good bet to succeed.
15. 
Julio Teheran SP ATL – The top arm in a very talented Braves system. Teheran has a plus FB with above average secondaries and good feel for working hitters. Just 20 he still has some filling out to do so there could be some additional velocity. He has a small frame right now and a full season could wear him down. If he doesn’t fill out he could end up as a closer.
16. 
Lonnie Chisenhall 3B CLE – Plus hit tool with above average power and quickly developing strike zone judgement. Chisenhall has the glove and arm to be a very good MLB 3B and the bat to be a #3 hitter for CLE. He keeps his strikeout totals in check already and should develop and even better k/bb ratio as he matures. His simple lefty stroke should prevent him from prolonged slumps.
17. 
Jameson Taillon SP PIT – Pittsburgh is hoping that Taillon will the one who breaks the curse and fulfills his potential on the mound in Pitt. Taillon has over powering stuff and could very well be the arm that turns the organization around. Workhorse frame and Ace potential.
Wilin Rosario, C Rockies
18. 
Wilin Rosario C COL – The best all around tools for a catcher on this list. Rosario could have a power impact bat with the skills behind the plate to be a force. He K’s more than one would like to see but his power is plus and he’ll hit for around a .280 average. 19 HRs in just 270 ABs last year might be a sign of something special for Colorado.
19. 
Jarrod Parker SP ARI – TJ surgery has limited his development time, but he’s still a frontline starter in the making. His plus FB is on the comeback and in time his command will improve to its previous levels. He should be able to front the rotation in Arizona for a few years eventually settling in as a #2.
20. 
Jacob Turner SP DET – Turner needs time to develop his secondaries to match his plus plus FB. He has a workhorse frame and could be an upper level #2 starter in DET in due time. The Tigers will push his limits but should have learned enough from the Porcello Project to let Turner fully develop.
21. Freddie Freeman 1B ATL – Freeman was #34 on this list last year and didn’t disappoint. He’s ready for Atlanta now and although we could see some growing pains he’s the 1B for the Braves. Will hit for average and some decent gap to gap power. Great glove.
22. Randall Delgado SP ATL – Another talented young Braves righty, Delgado is a step behind Teheran in every facet but still has plus tools at his disposal and might be the better bet to remain in the rotation. While Teheran has #1 stuff, Delgado has #2 stuff with a better bet long term to fulfill his potential.
23. 
Aroldis Chapman RP CIN – Last time on a prospect list and hasn’t been in the minors since last year. He blew major league hitters away last year with 100+ mph fastballs lighting up radar guns at every stop. He’s become a spectacle and its becoming apparent that he is not a starter and the dominant closer role is just a matter of time if his arm can stay attached throwing that hard.
24. Manny Machado SS BAL – This high because he has a good shot at sticking at SS for the O’s. He has average defensive tools across the board and could develop into a .300 hitter with average power as he fills out. Comparisons to A-Rod are unfair and unrealistic but if he sticks at SS it should be at an All Star level.
Kyle Drabek, RHP Blue Jays
25. 
Kyle Drabek SP TOR – Ready for the majors, Drabek’s stuff is quickly surpassing that of his father’s. A hammer curve and low 90s FB give him two excellent pitches. He’s learned how to be a pitcher on his comeback from TJ and his bloodlines give him a solid shot at a successful run with the Jays starting this season.
26. Jean Segura SS LAA – Came up as a 2B in the Angels system and has possibly the best hit tool in all of the minors. The question at this point isn’t if he’ll hit, it’s how much power and speed will he really have. He’s an above average defender and since the Angels are set at 2B with Kendrick and also have Amarista as a back up there, Segura has been tested at SS and seems like he could be above average there. He should be a .300+ hitter with above average speed capable of 30+ SB seasons and some decent power. He could be special.
27. Dustin Ackley 2B SEA – The transition to 2B went well with the bumps in the road we expected. He’ll need just a little more time develop since the M’s need him to be more than passable and are hoping he can become their infield general. Plus hit tool is progressing and should see time in Seattle in 2011.
28. Mike Montgomery SP KC – Big lefty with a plus plus fastball that he can run into the high 90s but works low to mid with the workings of an above average CB and an average CU. He’s still mastering his secondaries but they aren’t far off and despite some arm troubles he seems poised to take a spot in the Royals rotation mid to late 2011.
Martin Perez, LHP Rangers
29. 
Martin Perez SP TEX – Perez had a serious off season in 2010 and few account his age to level last year. His stuff was all still there and Perez owns a plus FB, plus CU and above average CB. He’ll repeat Double A and should show much better production his second time around. UP: Ace, Down: diminutive lefty could bust, but that is highly unlikely. The kid is talented.
30. Desmond Jennings OF TB – Jennings has been injured and now blocked in Tampa. He has the tools to be a top of the order threat and the extra time in Durham should give him an advantage once he gets going late 2011 for the Rays. He’s getting a little old for a prospect so that is cause for concern. But still has a bright future.
31. 
Matt Harvey SP NYM – Harvey was possibly the most talented college arm to come out of the 2010 draft. He’s a big kid with a workhorse frame. His low 90s FB is matched with a slider and CB but the Mets are developing the CB. His CU is a work in progress but already showed some flashes. His physical presence is impressive and he looks like he knows he’s good when he’s on the mound. Potentially the Ace the Mets have been longing for.
32. Nolan Arenado 3B COL – Arenado has done nothing but hit since being drafted. Some think he’ll need to shift to 1B, but as a High School SS he has the ability and the arm to stick at 3B which is a need in Colorado. He has the bat to hit .300 and slug 30+ HRs per season in time. He is the best all around hitter in the system at age 20.
33. 
Casey Kelly SP SD – Another son of a major leaguer, Kelly was a SS/SP and the Red Sox kept him on the mound before shipping him to SD as one of their top prospects for A-Gon. The Pads hope that Kelly will be able to front their rotation in a couple of years as the key piece in the trade. I think his mix of 4 solid pitches and good command give him a solid shot to settle into the #2 and the stadium will only help.
34. John Lamb SP KC – Another Royals lefty poised to take the next step, Lamb, has three possible plus pitches. He works low 90s with a plus CU and the making of an excellent CB. He’s not as physically talented as Montgomery, but is more polished and currently a better pitcher.
Devin Mesoraco, C Reds
35. Devin Mesoraco C CIN – After a couple of years of inconsistent performance showing flashes of plus power, Mesoraco seemingly put it all together in 2010. His plus power is now evident as a tool he’ll carry to the majors and his defense has come along to be well more than adequate. Whether he gets the chance in 2011 will depend on health in Cincy and if the Reds stay in the Central race. He might be the spark they need mid season.
36. Paul Goldschmidt 1B ARI – A pure power hitter who everyone keeps saying will eventually be stopped by better pitching. I think he’s Paul Konerko reincarnate. Konerko’s not dead you say? True. Well Goldschmidt has elite power, owns left handers and handles right handers well. He’s a 1B so his profile needs to stick this year for him to be a regular in 2012.
37. 
Brett Jackson OF CHC – Jackson is a toolsy OF who balances his game with hustle and talent. He’s never going to be a burner and he’ll never be a premier power threat, but solid at all facets of the game he’s going to be a fixture for the Cubs. He doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses that should hold him back. UP: 20/20 seasons in his prime.
38. Craig Kimbrel RP ATL – The Braves closer of the future and the future starts in 2011. A heavy mid 90s fastball with a solid curve that commands well. He’ll mix in an average change which is rarely need. He’s a dominant closer and should have a long and bright career.
39. 
Jerry Sands OF LAD – Sands is one of those players that although he should be falling behind the competition because of a lack of any elite tools. But I don’t think he really cares. That’s all he’s ever done is hit and hit for power at every level of his development. LA is week in the OF and Sands could be the 2011 answer. He could prove to be a solid regular with 25-30 HR power in his prime.
Brett Lawrie, 3B Blue Jays
40. Brett Lawrie 3B TOR – Shifting over to 3B for the Jays, Lawrie, seems to be ahead of the curve for his age on the offensive side of the ball. He doesn’t have great speed but should be good for 10-15 SBs. He’ll show average power with an average bat. I don’t see many .300 seasons but .275/20/10 wouldn’t surprise me. The Jays will try and make him stick at 3B. I don’t think he’ll be very good there. But he is athletic enough to pull it off and surprise me.
41. Mike Minor SP ATL – While Minor doesn’t have any plus pitches he does have plus movement and excellent command. He can add and subtract from his pitches and knows how to work hitters. The added velocity he showed in 2010 makes him a strong candidate to be a #3 starter long term. Good frame should put in solid innings work.
42. 
Jordan Lyles SP HOU – #1 pitcher in the system with #2 upside. Lyles has moved quickly through the system and has been young for every level. Regardless of age he’s been overly successful at each stop. His low 90s FB is nothing special but an above average CU makes it a better pitch than it really is. Add in an average slider and plus command and you have recipe for success long term.
43. Jason Kipnis 2B CLE – Kipnis surprised many in 2010 with a transition to 2B which he really took to. The bat was never his question mark and he showed why. He still needs to learn the nuances of 2B but is athletic enough to figure it out. He has an above average hit tool and will show decent power. He’s not much of a base stealer but should prove to be a solid regular.
44. Nick Castellanos 3B DET – If he could have handled the transition to pro ball as a SS he might be ranked above Machado, but his bat will play up as a 3B and he has a chance to be a very good defensive corner. He projects as a possible .300 hitter and should develop into a 20+ HR threat.
45. 
Chris Sale RP CWS – Sale was my top overall pitcher coming out of the 2010 draft and he didn’t disappoint in his debut. If the White Sox give him time to develop into a starter he could be a #2 with a plus plus fastball and two above average secondaries. But it looks like the Sox will be keeping him in the pen and groom him as the closer of the future. A mistake in my book.
Anthony Rizzo, 1B Padres
46. Anthony Rizzo 1B SD – Rizzo possesses a plus bat with above average power. The power will be sapped by Petco but he’s no doubt the future at 1B in SD. He’ll hit for a .275 average with 20+ HR and be a plus defender at 1B. He should see San Diego some time in 2011 and be their long term in 2012 and beyond.
47. Jaff Decker OF SD – With less power than Rizzo, Decker is still the best all around hitter in the system. He’s had some injuries and isn’t the best defender but he could prove to be a .300 hitter with decent power generating some 20 HR seasons.
48. Jake Odorizzi SP KC – The gem of the Greinke trade, Odorizzi, is a tough righthander that was the top arm in MIL. He takes a bit of a back seat to more advanced arms in KC but he has the upside to be a future #3 starter. He has good size with an above average 3 pitch combo and command. His mechanics are clean and future physical growth could take his fastball into plus territory.
49. Wilson Ramos C WAS – Since being buried behind Joe Mauer in Minnesota he’s a name that is highly touted. But a plus defender with a very good arm and a good bat. He’s had plenty of time to develop and now has a clear path to the majors in Washington with a young pitching staff to make his own. Ramos should be the answer the Nats are looking for as Ramos proves the trade of Capps was a smart one.
Alex White, RHP Indians
50. Alex White SP CLE – White has a solid average FB to go along with a plus splitter that is his put away pitch. The addition of a previously abandoned slider has put him in the mix for a 2011 rotation spot. He’s a groundball pitcher with strikeout ability and a frame to eat some innings. #3 starter as soon as 2011.
Check back soon for the next 50 prospects as we round out our Top 100 next week… then, who knows.
