This is the final installment of the Top 100 Prospects for 2011 from Baseball Instinct. I’m going to continue on with additional players on our radar and give some indication on where they would fall in rankings but going beyond 100 gets admittedly murky and I don’t want to come across as someone who thinks they can put this in order. So keep on the look out for Prospect Breakdowns and some Touch’em All articles which will travel around the Minor League levels seeing who is breaking out and performing above expectations.
Hak-Ju Lee
76. Hak Ju Lee SS TB – Traded by the Cubs to Tampa for Matt Garza, Lee was the Cubs top infield prospect and moves to that same post for the Rays. He’s a slick fielding SS who will stick there easily. He’ll have average pop and put pressure on teams with his speed from the left side.
77. JP Arencibia C TOR – The Jays 2011 catcher, he’s a power first player. His power is close to elite but until last season he didn’t make enough contact to really get the most of his best tool. But 2010 was a year that he dominated Triple A. With a solid arm and improving defensive skills he’s going to a lock behind the plate until Toronto can develop its younger talent and he could hit 30 HR along the way.
78. Arodys Vizcaino SP ATL - One of the Yankees top pitching prospects traded to the Braves for Javier Vazquez. A trade the Yankees will probably come to regret. Vizcaino had to deal with an elbow injury but did not need Tommy John surgery to correct it. He’s back in 2011 and will need to prove that he’s healthy. But a plus fastball and plus curveball give him huge upside. It’s scary when a partially torn ligament isn’t repaired though. A setback of that magnitude would be terrible at this point in his development.
79. Liam Hendriks SP MIN – While he doesn’t have any plus pitches right now, Hendriks does have plus command and has a low 90s fastball, above average slider, changeup and curveball along with a cutter. So his arsenal is deep and he knows how to use it. He’ll never be an ace type but he has mid rotation potential.
80. Chris Archer SP TB – The Rays got a haul for Matt Garza from the Cubs and Archer was consider the Cubs top pitching prospect. He has a plus fastball and above average slider, but he still has a lot of work to do before he becomes MLB ready. His changeup is lacking and his command has been erratic. But with enough time he does have #3+ upside.
81. Jose Iglesias SS BOS - A plus plus defender with an excellent arm. He’s this high on the prospect charts because of his glove. It’s that advanced. But his bat is only average and he’s not going to have much power. His speed is also average and he’s not a great base runner. Not a fantasy baseball star. But he’ll be on a lot of highlight reels.
82. Rubby de la Rosa SP LAD - An electric fastball that touches triple digits. He has a smaller frame but its solid and a big reason for his jump in velocity. His secondaries are a step behind but he should be able to work in an average changeup and his slider could be better than that when he learns to command it better. High upside as a starter or reliever.
83. Matt Dominguez 3B FLA – Dominguez in time should be a decent hitter with some power. But we’re talking about .275/15 seasons which is lacking for a 3B. His calling card is going to be some gold glove caliber defense and a very strong arm.
84. Trey McNutt SP CHC – McNutt came on strong last season and flashes a plus fastball and average curveball. His fastball gets on hitters fast even though it lacks movements. He’ll need time to develop his changeup in order to stick in the rotation and has mid rotation stuff if that happens. Possibly a power reliever.
85. Dee Gordon SS LAD - If Gordon had any chance to be more than 155lbs we would be talking about one of the top 10 prospects in all of baseball. But he’s not and he won’t be. His speed is still elite but he hasn’t become a great runner. No power and average defense make him an average SS with great speed. He’ll be a major leaguer. His bat is good enough and if he can become a true leadoff hitter by taking walks he’ll be an excellent player. But he’s knocking on the door and that still hasn’t happened which limits his upside much as his size does.
86. Billy Hamilton SS CIN – Plus plus speed and an advanced approach at the plate for his age give Hamilton a chance to be an above average leadoff man and possibly win a few basestealing crowns. He lacks any true game power but his speed is so elite that it may not matter. His defense at SS is questionable due to a below average arm but he’s a good glove defender and could handle SS or 2B long term.
www.madfriars.com
87. James Darnell 3B SD – After a stellar 2009, Darnell scuffled through most of 2010, but once again lit it up at the end of the year flashing his big bat and plus eye. He should hit for above average power and solid on base skills. He may not stick at 3B but could handle the position if needed.
88. Gary Brown OF SF – Plus speed with a solid compact stroke. He’s going to stick long term in CF and his speed will make him a viable leadoff hitter. With some development time he’ll need to better learn to work counts to fully utilize his speed but his bat should be good enough anyway.
89. Jeurys Familia SP NYM – Familia had a first half to forget in 2010 but came back around in the second half to show why he was one of the most exciting arms in the Mets system. Familia has been young for each level and struggles can happen in that situation. He has a plus plus fastball that can touch triple digits but he works in the mid 90s with a hard slider and what should be an average changeup. His frame will make him a viable #2 or #3 innings eater. Nice upside.
Brad Peacock (Photo credit: Paul Hadsall)
90. Brad Peacock SP WSH – A little slighter in size than most mid 90s fastball throwers, Peacock, generates pretty smooth mid 90s heat with a plus spike curveball that gives him a solid strikeout pitch. He needs to refine his changeup to combat lefties but has the mix to be a mid rotation starter He has excellent command of his fastball even though it lacks the movement that would make it plus plus. Mid rotation high K total starter.
91. Zack Cox 3B STL – Cox has a smooth all fields swing from the left side. He isn’t the prototypical power hitting corner but could hit for average power at either 3B or 2B. He has the arm to handle 3B but the Cardinals are known for moving players to 2B and Cox would be a prime candidate. He should move through the system quickly.
92. Tyler Matzek SP COL – Matzek was clearly a top talent coming out of High School and it was considered a coup that the Rockies were able to sign him away from a commitment to Oregon regardless of the high bonus. Matzek has a great frame and plus plus fastball. The downside is that he doesn’t repeat his delivery and his mechanics are still a work in progress. Because of this his command suffers drastically and his development of his secondaries has not come along. Still uber toolsy so I won’t cast aside. Yet.
93. Miguel Sano 3B MIN – A young corner infielder with plus plus power projection. He’s already a beast at over 230 lbs so there is some concern as to if he can even stick at 3B and if not where does he go besides 1B. So conditioning will be very important. But the power upside is significant, we’re talking 30+ HR per season. But he just turned 18 so this is all projection and upside. The odds of him hitting that peak is not the highest which is why he is near the bottom of this list. 2011 will be a telling season.
Fernando Martinez
94. Fernando Martinez OF NYM – He’s been on this list for years it seems and that is true. But Martinez has fallen in status everywhere even though he’s still only 22 years old and has an extensive minor league career and major league experience. He’s been hampered by nagging injuries season after season but still owns the the skill set that made him an elite prospect. With the Mets close to rebuilding mode I think F-Mart will get every chance to succeed in Flushing and he has the talent to do that at a high level. As long as he can stay healthy.
95. Jedd Gyorko 3B SD – Gyorko is not going to be the typical power hitting corner, but he is a solid bat that should hit close to .300 with 15+ HR power. He has enough arm to stick at 3B but might actually not get a chance if Darnell continues to develop. He could fit in LF if his power develops a little more because a power right handed bat is tough to come by in San Diego. I do see the chance that Gyorko can develop more power which would move him higher on this list.
96. Stetson Allie SP PIT – Allie is the only other pitcher from the 2010 draft to possess a true 80 power fastball besides team mate Taillon. But his command is going to be a work in progress because his mechanics are all out balls to the wall effort. He does ring it up into the high 90s and touches triple digits. I thought that Allie would be a RP coming out of the draft because his secondaries are so far behind his plus plus fastball and still see his future as the closer on a competitive Pirates team.
97. Christian Yelich 1B FLA - Another 2010 HS draftee, Yelich is a textbook lefty with sweet swing mechanics and a nice feel for the strikezone. He’ll develop average power in time and has a projectable frame. He’ll need to time to learn the OF and with a below average arm he’s likely slated for LF as a pro especially if Gaby Sanchez is still in Miami.
98. Kenley Jansen RP LAD - A converted catcher, Jansen flashes near triple digit heat with a solid slider and a confidence that he shouldn’t have yet. He’ll never be a starter but could eventually be the closer for the Dodgers. Only his second year pitching. Dangerous.
99. Wilmer Flores 3B NYM – His frame still shows projection and his power is coming along. But he’s no SS and 3B is going to be a stretch as well. Best bet is a power hitting corner, possibly RF or 1B. Still very young but has been a top prospect for a few years already.
100. Mike Choice OF OAK - Plus power with a chance to stick in CF. Plus athlete with excellent bat speed. Choice will probably never be a high average type but he could provide enough pop to warrant being a regular and move to a corner OF spot if needed. Its the upside that makes him so deserving a spot. He has all 5 tools in projection and if it comes together right this is a special kid. High upside with the same type of downside risk.
Keep an eye out for my 2011 Draft Review and since we’re a good way into the season I’m going to be taking a deep look into the Midwest League again for some sleepers and diamonds in the rough. This is my favorite part of following the minor leagues.
