2011 MLB Draft Review
Gerrit Cole
#1 – Pirates
#4 Gerrit Cole RHP UCLA - Cole was a top pick of the Yankees a few years ago and has done his best to make the Yankees regret not being able to lure him away from UCLA. He’s the concensus #1 as a college Friday starter. Plus fastball that he gets into the high 90s, plus slider in the 80s and has developed a plus changeup to give him the 3rd pitch needed. He’s the closest to the bigs comparing him to Bundy but will need time to adjust to the higher level. He’s by no means MLB ready despite all of his talents.
Instinct: The Pirates went the safe route and see Cole as a workhorse. If Cole can get his mechanics back in order he could be the workhorse they need and in the long run they may not have had the funds to sign Bundy.
#2 – Mariners
#10 Danny Hultzen LHP Virginia - Solid framed lefty with a mid 90s fastball and a plus changeup giving him 2 plus to plus plus pitches. He’s already a plus command type and coming from the left side that makes him a premium draft target.
Instinct: The Mariners went away from the best bat available in Rendon and I’m not really sure why outside of not liking the medical reports. They took a good lefty who will perform well in the confines of Safeco. But there were better players on the board.
#3 – Diamondbacks
#3 Trevor Bauer RHP UCLA - Cole’s rotation mate has actually outperformed Cole this season and isn’t that far behind in terms of talent. Granted his Fastball sits a notch below Cole’s, getting into the mid 90s with his 4 seamer. But he mixes those in with a plus plus curveball, Changeup and slider with excellent command to go along with a very deceptive delivery. He’s a student of pitching and based on reports he’s at a Masters level studying bio-mechanics to perfect his delivery. He could be a steal early and produce at a top of the rotation level for whoever loses out on Gerrit Cole. They may actually win in the long run.
Instinct: Bauer went to the Dbacks as I thought he would and I love this pick for them. He’s going to move fast and could be an excellent strikeout pitcher for them. Rendon could have been dynamite in Arizona but he’s slipping down the draft.
Dylan Bundy, RHP
#4 Orioles
#1 Dylan Bundy RHP Owasso HS (OK) - This is a draft deep in pitching at the top end and there are pitchers more advanced than Bundy, but none have the ultimate upside that this kid can have. He’s a baseball rat who’s work ethic is already off the charts and he has a plus plus fastball, plus curveball and the frame to be a work horse for a long time. It’ll take a hefty bonus but he’s going to sign because the team that gets can’t afford not to sign him.
Instinct: The top talent in this draft and the Orioles are building a really solid big league rotation with more upcoming talent now. Great pick. Time to open the pocket book.
#5 Royals
# 7 Bubba Starling OF Gardner-Edgerton HS (KS) – Starling is probably going to be the best athlete available in 2011 and is the top 5 tool talent in the draft. At 6-5 I think eventually he’ll need to move out of CF to a corner which is why I’m dropping him a few spots despite his tool set. He’s a football player who needs to be polished into a baseball player and that takes time and drive.
Instinct: Starling is a great athlete and fits perfectly into KC. Huge upside and a possible monster OF to go along with the rest of the gems in Kansas City’s future. Great pick for the Royals.
#6 Nationals
#2 Anthony Rendon 3B Rice U – Rendon has had some injury troubles the past couple of years and his medicals have come back clean. But there is still concern over his 2011 performance. When healthy he’s a game changer with the bat and the glove in the Longoria mold. He’ll hit for above average power with an above average hit tool and handle the hot corner at an All Star level.
Instinct: Rendon finally goes off the board and the Nationals just keep getting better, lucking into steal after steal from last year to this year. Last year A.J. Cole fell way too far and then add that to Harper and Strasburg. Where Rendon will play is a question. Possible move to 2B. But if his shoulder is healthy this is premier bat.
#7 Diamondbacks
#5 Archie Bradley RHP Broken Arrow HS (OK) - Bradley is another Oklahoma fireballer. He’s touched 101 this season and can work consistently in the mid 90s and add to it. His plus plus curveball give him two elite offerings and he’s shown an average changeup at times giving him great projection as a starter. A premium athlete as well with a solid 6-4 frame.
Instinct: A great pick by the Diamondbacks but Bradley is a tough sign. It seems like they’ll break the bank for him and possibly even let him play College Football as well. But more likely they’ll give him the extra money to concentrate on baseball and have a potential stud in the stable behind Bauer.
#8 Indians
#15 Franciso Lindor SS Montverde Academy (FL) – Top 10 if I thought he would stick at SS, but despite sparkling reviews of his glove work I think he’ll eventually need to move off of SS and I don’t think he’ll have the power to be an All Star elsewhere. He’s still a great athlete and if he does stick at SS he will be worth this spot.
Instinct: I can’t say anything about the timing of this pick even though I had Lindor further down the list at #15. My placement is below what most others believe and the Indians don’t have much depth in their system at SS. I think George Springer would have been my pick here but you can’t fault the Indians on this one.
#9 Cubs
#12 Javier Baez SS Arlington Country Day (FL) - Baez is currently a SS but will move over to 3B as a pro. He has plus plus bat speed plus raw power. He’ll profile well at 3B with an excellent arm but still needs time to mature and focus what can sometimes he detrimental energy. If he can learn to channel the energy into focus he could be an above average hitter to go along with his plus power.
Instinct: The Cubs took a big upside bat here with a question position path to the pros. They either don’t believe in Josh Vitters as their next 3B or they think Baez can stay up the middle. Starlin Castro in Chicago and Junior Lake breaking out this season it would seem the SS/2B spot could be solved. So a move to 2B for Baez could be an excellent backup plan to Castro/Lake. But I’m not sure he can handle the position.
#10 Padres
#17 Cory Spangenberg 3B Indian River JC (FL)
Instinct: I had Spangenberg down a few spots from here but he is a good fit for the Padres. While left handed hitters tend to disappear in Petco, Spangenberg isn’t a pure power hitter. He does have a smooth left handed stroke and goes gap to gap utilizing his plus speed. He should be able to add enough power as he develops to keep defenses honest and if he can’t stick at 2B he can handle the transition to CF. Solid pick and we know that the Padres can’t afford another bust.
#11 Astros
#6 George Springer OF UConn – Springer is another 5 tool player but this time it’s not raw tools. Springer has developed at the college level and can do it on both sides of the ball. Springer should be one of the best talents to come out of this draft and will fall on the boards. But his frame and 5 tool set give him a very high ceiling and his college pedigree should keep his floor from dropping out from under him.
Instinct: I love this pick by the Astros and I think they got a real steal here in Springer. He was bypassed out of High School and has proven to be a rare 5 tool proven college hitter. He could move quickly and the Astros need some help. He has the ability to be a major league star.
#12 Brewers
#16 Taylor Jungmann RHP Texas – Next to Trevor Bauer, Jungmann had the best 2011 college season and his performance has moved up the list. His fastball sits low 90s but his command is above average which makes it play up. He compliments the fastball with a good slider but lacks an average 3rd pitch which makes his command so important.
Instinct: Jungmann has had a dominant 2011 college season which I think prompted this pick. He does have an above average fastball and slider but the fact that he lives on his command and still needs time to truly develop a 3rd pitch limits his upside. But he also has limited downside as I think he’ll easily fit into a major league bullpen if he fails to make it as a starter. Safe pick not the best pick. I easily would have gone with Taylor Guerrieri or Jose Fernandez here.
#13 Mets
#37 Brandon Nimmo OF East HS (WY)
Instinct: Nimmo was outside my first round thoughts but the Mets have been on him for awhile and think they have a potential steal. He’s a toolsy OF and has room to grow into a nice baseball frame. If the financially struggling Mets can get him signed at a discount it could be a wise move. But I think Nimmo’s price tag is higher than they anticipate. I smell a Compensation pick coming to replace the one they would get if they don’t trade Jose Reyes.
#14 Marlins
#11 Jose Fernandez RHP Alonso HS (FL) – A year old for a HS pitcher but has the experience to make up for it. He pitchers mid 90s with a 3 offspeed arsenal, slider, curveball and changeup which are all average and could be more. He has a good frame that says he’ll be able to handle a workload and has that attitude needed to succeed.
Instinct: Guerrieri or Fernandez here are excellent picks. But Fernandez is a Cuban defector and will fit well in Miami in the future. Both pitchers have similar arsenals and I like Fernandez as a workhorse with solid floor and high upside potential. Great pick.
#15 Brewers
#22 Jed Bradley LHP Georgia Tech
Instinct: Bradley was expected to be drafted around the mid 1st round so this isn’t a surprise. The Brewers are looking for closer to ready arms and went with two college starters in Jungmann and now Bradley. I like the Bradley pick better since he has the same type of stuff from the left side. I don’t consider either as high upside though.
#16 Dodgers
#72 Chris Reed LHP Stanford
Instinct: Reed is a pure signability pick for the Dodgers who are in serious financial troubles at this time. Reed is a solid lefty out of Stanford with a low 90s fastball and a slider/change combo that lacks consistency. I think the Dodgers will try to make him a starter. But this isn’t a player worthy of a first round pick. He could have been taken in the 2nd round.
#17 Angels
#13 C.J. Cron 1B Utah – Cron is the best power hitter in the country right now. Pure hitter who could be tried behind the plate but more than likely will be a 1B in the future. He’ll hit for the power needed and could also be a high average hitter as well.
Instinct: This tells you that the Angels are worried about Morales and they aren’t sure that Trumbo is the answer. Cron does have the best power in the draft rating right at the top of the charts. But his bat is going to have to carry him to the big leagues because the chances of him making a smooth conversion to full time catcher is low. One thing to watch for though as Cron progresses through the minor leagues are pitchers on his rosters with plus fastballs and lagging development of their curveballs. Cron has one of the best curveballs I’ve ever seen. If he can teach that their may be some SP breakouts for the Angels in the coming 2-3 years.
#18 Athletics
#21 Sonny Gray RHP Vanderbilt
Instinct: While I don’t have Gray much lower than here where the A’s took him, I do think they made a mistake. While Gray has the high 90s fastball and power curveball that teams look for I not of the belief that he can remain a starter long term. But if he can command a changeup in the coming years he could over come his frame and prove me wrong. Not a bad pick but again, Geurrieri is still on the board and Barnes and Meyer are there for the college starters.Gray has more upside than both but a bigger downside as well.
#19 Red Sox
#18 Matt Barnes RHP UConn
Instinct: This is a very Red Sox type of pick. They get their man, a college starter with upside, in Barnes. The Red Sox shouldn’t have landed Barnes and while this isn’t a coup it is proof that the front office doesn’t make many mistakes when drafting. They get steals when they can and make the correct picks like this when they can. Solid choice.
#20 Rockies
#23 Tyler Anderson LHP Oregon
Instinct: This is the anti-Matzek pick for the Rockies. Anderson is also a lefty but he’s already proven and polished. He has a low 90s fastball and above average changeup. He’ll need to refine either his slider or curveball but has the command and deception to be successful in the middle of a rotation. He should move quickly and I think bypasses Matzek as the best lefty in the system the day he signs.
#21 Blue Jays
#40 Tyler Beede RHP Lawrence Academy (MA)
Instinct: Big righty out of the Northeast showcase, Beede flashes mid 90s but is raw in all other facets of his game. His mechanics are workable and he has a slider and changeup that could be average. So this is a work in progress. Taking him in the 1st round might entice Beede to sign away from a Vanderbilt commitment. This is a poor choice with Guerrieri falling to them. One the Jays will regret.
#22 Cardinals
#28 Kolton Wong 2B Hawaii
Instinct: Slight overdraft but this is a very St. Louis pick. Wong is an excellent hitter and will play the NL game very well based on his tools. He’s quick, gritty, line drive, gap to gap and will provide some decent pop up the middle. He could be the answer at 2B for the Cards if Zack Cox can stick at 3B for them. But with Cox and Wong the future for the infield the Cards need to sign Pujols or the power will quickly disappear from this team.
#23 Nationals
#20 Alex Meyer RHP Kentucky
Instinct: The Nationals got another player to drop further than he should have and are sitting pretty with Rendon and Meyer. Meyer could be a solid #3 workhorse and his high 90s fastball give him all sorts of potential in the rotation or the bullpen. Excellent pick and I think the Nationals might be onto something. They could be contenders within a couple of years.
#24 Rays
#8 Taylor Guerrieri RHP Spring Valley HS (SC) - A top HS arm with a strong pitchers frame that has room to fill out and add to the already mid 90s fastball and hammer curve. He’s not as advanced at Bradley or Bundy so his command is still a step behind. Guerrieri still has a very high ceiling and his mechanics say that he’ll be able to develop into a starter long term.
Instinct: Steal of the draft so far. On par with Rendon dropping to 6, but with a #24 pick you should not get a look at a top 10 talent. Kudos to the Rays front office.
#25 Padres
#39 Joe Ross RHP Bishop O’Dowd HS (CA)
Instinct: With two picks in the first round the Padres went with a questionable pick here. Ross, while talented, is a signability issue. He’s committed to UCLA and will need an overslot bonus to be swayed. This is the pick that the Padres will get a comp pick for though Ross does choose UCLA. But I think Robert Stephenson is more talented and probably an easier sign for around the same price tag.
#26 Red Sox
#19 Blake Swihart C Cleveland HS (NM)
Instinct: While I thought the Red Sox would swoop in and steal Stephenson here, this is still a good pick. Swihart is the top catcher in the draft. Just coming out of HS he is a project, but a switch-hitting, athletic youngster with a strong arm and work ethic is tough to come by. He’s considered a tough sign with a commitment to Texas although I think the Red Sox will sign him above slot and allow him as much time as needed to develop as a catcher.
#27 Reds
#14 Robert Stephenson RHP Alhambra HS (CA) – Stephenson has a great head for pitching and his body is starting to come along for the ride. His 6-2 frame is still growing and his velocity has upticked to the low to mid 90s and rising. His curveball is above average already but he needs to work on a changeup which will make his fastball that much better.
Instinct: The only reason I can see for Stephenson dropping this far is that I’ve underestimated his commitment to Washington. If the Reds can sign Stephenson they have a top 15 pick late in the first round with tremendous upside potential. Excellent pick.
#28 Braves
#38 Sean Gilmartin LHP FSU
Instinct: This pick isn’t a surprise since it’s the Braves making it. Gilmartin is a lefty with a plus changeup which some consider even better than that. His fastball is only average but there are some mechanical issues that if tweaked could produce more velocity and a slider that should be average. The Braves love these lefty projects. Gilmartin is already very polished.
#29 Giants
#67 Joe Panik SS SJU
Instinct: With players like Danny Norris, Mikie Mahtook and John Stilson still on the board this pick makes zero sense to me. If San Francisco was dead set on picking up a middle infielder Trevor Story is a first round talent. Even Levi Michael would have been a better choice at this spot if it was a college MI they were targeting. Maybe they see something I don’t. I think Panik will be a solid utility player with gap power but his upside is limited and the chances of him sticking at SS long term are near nil.
#30 Twins
#33 Levi Michael SS UNC
Instinct: The college SS that the Giants probably should have taken goes one pick later. The Twins are looking for someone close to the show than Trevor Story and although there were more talented players on the board this is a solid pick. Michael profiles as a leadoff type with gap to gap power from both sides of the plate. If he’s given time he could be a serviceable SS in time or easily slide over to 2B. Not the pick I would have made but a good pick for the Twins.
That was the end of the first round and with guys like #24 Danny Norris LHP Science Hill HS (TN), #25 Mikie Mahtook OF LSU, #26 John Stilson RHP Texas A&M, #27 Austin Hedges C JSerra HS (CA), #30 Matt Purke LHP TCU and seemingly unsignable Josh Bell OF Dallas Jesuit HS, I think there was some serious talent left for the comp round.
I’ll be going over some of my other views of the top talent and where it falls in the Comp 1st and later rounds in the near future. Thanks for checking out Baseball Instinct. See ya soon.
