Phillies One Pence All the Richer
The Phillies and Astros made a trade late on Friday night that seemed like it could be the talk of the MLB trade deadline. Instead, it became a footnote in a historically active non-waiver deadline.
The Phillies attempted to strengthen their anemic offense by adding Hunter Pence and sent prospects Jarred Cosart, Jonathan Singleton, Josh Zeid, and a Player to Be Named Later to Houston in return.
Let’s look at all the pieces involved and see where things stand now:
Hunter Pence, OF Philadelphia Phillies
Hunter Pence, OF PHI – By this point, everyone is familiar with Hunter Pence. Pence burst onto the scene in 2007 with a strong season but regressed in each of the next three seasons. He seems to have returned to his 2007 form this season and a closer look at the numbers reveals why. It’s a little too simplistic to point out that he had a .377 BABIP and has a .366 BABIP this year, compared to an average .304 BABIP in his other three seasons. Even though BABIP is generally down around the league, Pence’s higher line drive percentage is driving up his BABIP as it did in 2007. Unfortunately, that percentage is lower than it was in 2007, along with a much lower HR/FB% and a BB% and K% that have remained average at best. Pence is probably closer to the player of the last three years than he is the player of 2007 and 2011. Still, there is no doubt that Pence is an upgrade for the Phillies. Whether Philadelphia can win a title this year and what kind of player Jonathon Singleton ends up as will really determine if this was a successful deal for the Phillies.
Jarred Cosart, SP HOU – Cosart is a 21-year-old, former 38th round pick who was pitching for the Phillies in Clearwater of the Florida State League. After absolutely dominating the Gulf Coast League and the Sally, Cosart moved to the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. You can guess what that did for his numbers. Actually, you would probably guess wrong. Cosart has struck out considerably fewer hitters, walked considerably more hitters, and given up more home runs, to the tune of a 4.00 FIP. Cosart’s is a case of the numbers not matching the scouting reports. He has a mid-90s fastball to go along with a curve that flashes plus and an improving changeup. It appears that many of the problems are stemming from an ineffective delivery, leading to poor command, and there are rumblings of makeup issues. If he puts it together, he could be special. But as always, the question is whether he will.
Jonathan Singleton, 1B Houston Astros
Jonathan Singleton, 1B/OF HOU – Singleton was Cosart’s teammate in Clearwater and is only 19 years old. Singleton has big-time raw power but hasn’t been able to tap into that in games to this point. Scouts talk about his advanced approach at the plate. He does draw a lot of walks but his strikeouts have really shot up this season. More recently, he’s been cutting down on the strikeouts, so it’s worth watching which way that trend goes. Singleton is likely not an outfielder. Even at 19, it looks like he’s going to be stuck at 1B. That means the bat is really going to have to play. The tools are there but it is unknown at this point if he will turn the tools into in-game production. Make sure to check our video of Singleton’s last at-bat as a Phillie, as well as our Jonathan Singleton Prospect Instinct.
Josh Zeid, RP HOU – Zeid is a 24-year-old who was pitching for AA Reading at the time of the trade. Since recently being moved into a relief role, Zeid has been extremely effective, striking out 24 and walking only 2 in only 16 innings. Zeid isn’t the most exciting part about this trade but he is the closest to the majors and the safest to have a successful major league career. Some scouts believe Zeid could help a major league bullpen right now but his ceiling is probably as a middle reliever/7th inning guy.
Our Instinct
As with all trades with established major leaguers going one way and prospects going the other way, it is generally way too early to pick a winner. We don’t yet know what will happen with Cosart and Singleton. If they become stars and Pence fizzles in Philly, this looks like a huge win for Houston. As it stands today, this seems like a fair price for Pence. Neither Cosart nor Singleton is a sure thing and Pence will absolutely help the Phillies in their run for a championship. And Pence isn’t a rental; the Phillies will have control of Pence for one more season and a head start on negotiating an extension with him. For a championship contender, this is a trade you have to make 10 times out of 10. We’ll see how it turns out over the next several years.
