Prospect Instinct | Paul Goldschmidt 1B Arizona Diamondbacks


Paul Goldschmidt, 1B Arizona Diamondbacks

DOB 9/10/87

 Height: 6’3” Weight: 245lbs.

Arizona DiamondbacksDrafted in the 8th round of the 2009 Amateur Draft, Paul Goldschmidt was a big-bodied first baseman with tremendous raw power, but struck out a lot. He started as a college hitter in Rookie Ball at age 22 with good numbers (.314, 18 HR, 62 RBI, 36 BB, 74 K in 74 games), but it was Rookie Ball and he was 22. Next, he mashed in the Cal League (.314, 35 HR, 108 RBI, .384 OBP), the critics said “But that’s Cal League, everybody mashes there”. Seemed that Goldy’s detractors couldn’t stop writing this kid off from a prospect standpoint. “Look at the strikeouts!” they’d say. And boy did he K in 2010. 161 times in 138 games. So why would anyone be talking about someone with a K rate like that? Well…

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B Arizona Diamondbacks

Suddenly, 2011 happened. Goldschmidt got promoted to Double-A Southern League to face more advanced pitching so the Dbacks could see what they really had. And in 366 at bats, Goldschmidt merely hit .306, with 21 doubles, smacked a minor league leading 30 homers and 94 RBI, along with a devastating .435 OBP. Yes, the strikeouts were there too, 92 of them to be exact, but hand-cuffed to them were 82 walks. Even the scouts who invested their prognostication in his demise had to notice that the product of the Cal League all-or-nothing masher has actually met solid development at each level and has grown as a hitter.

There had been questions as to whether or not Goldschmidt would be able to hit enough against righties this season as well. While he does still strikeout at a high rate against righties, he has managed to keep his average at a more than passable .279 and a .402 OBP. He’s hit 16 of his dingers against the righties who were going to own him in Double-A. The lefties? Well, to say that he owns lefties would be putting it in a very kind way. Goldschmidt destroys lefties. 14 HR, 6 doubles, .376 AVG and a .516 OBP in 101 ABs. Sick, sick, sick.

Now a series of trades and the departure of a possible Diamondbacks future 1B Brandon Allen to Oakland opens up a spot for Goldy to fill. And on August 1st he ripped his first major league career single against Matt Cain of the San Francisco Giants. There you go, kid. Now tonight, go get after Tim Lincecum. Let’s go to Tom Belmont for a second opinion.


Tom: Even with the pathway cleared a bit for Goldschmidt, it won’t be easy. As a right-handed 1B he’s going to need to continue to bring his average defense up a notch. He’s only committed 4 errors in Double-A this year so he’s on his way. Also, that Double-A walk rate may not show up right away, since it is unknown how many of the free passes were given up out of fear of his stick. That said, Goldschmidt seems to have all the tools to, in time, rival the offensive output of a Paul Konerko. There is a wide variance in Goldschmidt’s floor and ceiling though. If he can’t reign in the K’s against right-handers, he may eventually find himself in a platoon. But here at Instinct, Goldschmidt ranked in our Top 50 preseason and we think that he’ll continue to develop as a pure hitter and has the swing to use his power, pole to pole, while getting on base at a high clip. Are we pleased with Goldschmidt’s 2011 performance? I would say so. Surprised by it? Not really. There’s a reason we held him in high enough regard to make our preseason list.

Faithful readers, thanks for checking us out again. Baseball Instinct hopes to be your connection to minor league info and analysis. Be sure to stop back for more as we look forward to bringing the Prospect Instinct breakdown for both Carlos Martinez and Brody Colvin, fresh off catching their recent highly publicized FSL match-up. Let’s just say that C-Mart is filthy.

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