Brett Lawrie, 3B Toronto Blue Jays
1/18/1990
Height: 6’0″ Weight: 215
Brett Lawrie, all of 21, is getting the call to Toronto after healing from a broken wrist midseason. Lawrie is the highest drafted Canadian ever, going #16 overall to the Milwaukee Brewers in 2008. He’s moved from MI to C to MI to 3B since then and now makes his way to the show moving the MLB Home Run leader Jose Bautista to LF.
Lawrie has been on the radar since he was drafted and while there were doubts that his hitting mechanics would translate there was never a time when his talent did not dictate that he was a top prospect. Let’s a take a look back at some of the progression of Lawrie as a Baseball Instinct prospect.
Lawrie first showed up on our prospect list in 2009 where he ranked #51 overall in his first eligible ranking.
Brett Lawrie, 3B Toronto Blue Jays
Here is what we said in 2009 when the Brewers abandoned the C project:
“Lawrie’s bat is too advanced to hold back an extra 2 or 3 seasons while he perfects his game calling skills. This news excelerates his MLB arrival by a full 2 seasons. That does not mean 2009. He is a couple of years off.”
Lawrie jumped a few spots in 2010 when he ranked #39 and proceeded to man-handle Double-A.
In the 2011 offseason the Brewers were looking for a top RHP for their rotation in an all or nothing build and traded Lawrie to Toronto for Shaun Marcum.
So in 2011 he moved to Toronto and checked in at #41 when I had this to say preseason:
40. Brett Lawrie 3B TOR – Shifting over to 3B for the Jays, Lawrie, seems to be ahead of the curve for his age on the offensive side of the ball. He doesn’t have great speed but should be good for 10-15 SBs. He’ll show average power with an average bat. I don’t see many .300 seasons but .275/20/10 wouldn’t surprise me. The Jays will try and make him stick at 3B. I don’t think he’ll be very good there. But he is athletic enough to pull it off and surprise me.
Taking a look at Lawrie’s swing in BP earlier this season with a video by mdeeeez:
The Swing
His swing is clean and he’s grown into his frame over the past two years. He’s very solidly built at 6’0″ and 215 lbs so this years power output is a product of how well put together he is and how much lower body he is able to use in his swing. While the power in 2011 is impressive there are some caution signs to his current season as witnessed by a .308 IsoP. To put that number into perspective, Albert Pujols has only had 2 seasons with a IsoP of over .300 and Lawrie has never before approached a .200 season.
So while I’m optimistic about the 36 doubles from 2010 translating into more HR in 2011, I am not of the belief that Lawrie is going to be approaching Albert Pujols status any time soon. A second caution sign is the elevated BABIP of .385 on the season. I’ve been quoted as saying that I don’t believe that Lawrie has a .300 bat. Maybe he will approach .300, but there is no way that a .385 BABIP is going to be sustained and when that regresses to the mean the AVG of .353 will fall closer to Lawrie’s career numbers in the .280 range.
Our Instinct
As he matures and his approach is refined, I’m starting to believe that this is a kid who actually can produce some .300/25/20 type seasons. If everything falls right, if he gets Bautista as his protection, if he continues to mature, if he can boost his bb% of 7.9 and keep his K’s down, if, if, if… Lawrie may have a 30/30 season in him. I’ve always liked the kid and even when others pointed to unconventional hitting mechanics, immaturity, and a lack of a defensive position, I’ve never been able to find those same flaws, as relevant as they may have been, as a reason to take him out of the Elite Prospect Ranks.
Good Luck to Brett Lawrie as he debuts with the Jays. Have a great career, kid!!!
Check back tomorrow for the Prospect Instinct breakdown of another St. Louis Cardinals phenom, Carlos Martinez. Thanks for checking Baseball Instinct. We’re working hard to bring you the best of the minor leagues and make the site the best experience it can be. So don’t hesitate to tell us what you would like to read about. Email me now at Tom@baseballinstinct.com.
