Jarrod Parker, RHP Arizona Diamondbacks
11/24/1988
Height: 6’1″ Weight: 195
Jarrod Parker was selected by the Diamondbacks in the the first round of the 2007 draft. He was taken #9 overall out of Norwell High School in Indiana. He wasn’t considered an easy sign and it cost the Diamondbacks $2.1mm to get him inked.
This isn’t the first time we’ve profiled Parker. He was one of our original PI tests as we looked for a way to bring our analysis to a public forum. While we’re still using the same basis to our analysis, the look is new and improved.
Parker was a top prospect as soon as he made his debut in 2008. He was able to amass a K per inning with 117 over 117.2 IP. He also flashed above average command with just 2.52/9 IP. So there was more than just something to keep an eye on and it put him at #22 for our 2009 Top Prospects List. So he’s been on the radar for a long time.
Jarrod Parker, RHP Diamondbacks
He dominated in 2009 moving along through the Cal and Southern Leagues. Flashing the same strikeout potential and above average command while honing his changeup and offspeed pitches. He ran into a roadblock when an elbow injury prompted ligament replacement in his right elbow.
The elbow injury didn’t stop us from moving Parker up from #22 to#13 on our 2010 Top Prospect list.
While the TJ surgery pushed back his time line, it didn’t push back his overall development. I also rated Parker the #1 prospect in the Dbacks system in 2010 and had this to say:
1. Jarrod Parker, RHP 11/24/1988
This was my take going into 2009 in a nutshell: Probable #2 and a Potential Ace. Mid 90s FB, 3 good to plus secondaries. Hard worker. Parker is on the small side but he’s a gamer and knows how to win. Here’s my take for 2010: He came down with elbow troubles in late July which eventually led to TJ surgery. I don’t fear the TJ. As a matter of fact, I not only don’t fear it in a prospect, I actually like to see it completed at an early age as long as the prospect has show upside, maturity and has gained a nice level of experience. As in Parker’s case, he was on the fast track and is well advanced for his age. This setback will give him time to mature mentally and even more physically as well as learn how to pitch without his best stuff when he’s on the road back. In the long run his fastball should come back to the normal mid 90s and he might even get a little more giddy-up on it as he comes back. He should be a better pitcher at the end of this and his upside as a Ace has actually gone up even higher in my opinion now. His time line is the only thing taking a step back now and we should expect to see him in May to midseason in 2011 and he’ll be there to stay.
Well, I was off on my timeline by a couple of months. But I still think the additional seasoning and fighting back from adversity is going to make Parker a better pitcher for a longer period of time.
OK, last ranking quote and we’ll get to the goods.
He was bypassed by a few other player and landed at #19 for our 2011 Top Prospects List… which you can access right there at the top of the page. Look up… I swear it’s there.
Let’s take a look at the pitch arsenal and the mechanics before we round this out for one of the 2012 Dback starters.
The Stuff
Parker’s command has certainly been off this season, which is typical when coming back from TJ surgery. His walk rate of 10% is well above his career rate while he was healthy.
So with his mid 90s fastball and plus slider, he already had the makings of front-line starter if he was able to bring his changeup along to average or better. His rehab has allowed him the time to develop the pitch and its flashing above average or better now.
Once his command is back to above average he’s going to have the pitches and command to stick in a major league rotation.
The Mechanics
Not much has changed since Aaron Bentley broke down Parker’s mechanics in 2009. He’s pretty free and easy with minimal effort. But he does still have a shorter stride than I would like to see. It doesn’t make him an injury risk though and the TJ surgery isn’t something that was caused by the small mechanical flaw.
So, I don’t see any issues with Parker holding up to the rigors of a full MLB season. Although I don’t think we’ll see a 200 inning season from him until 2014. Basing that on simple workload. He went about 130 innings this season. He’ll see about 160 next season and then be on target to near 200 in 2013 depending on how many inning the Dbacks add on and if they continue their success.
Our Instinct
With Trevor Bauer, Tyler Skaggs and Parker, the Diamondbacks have a trio of young arms that are going to go 1, 2, 3 for them for many years. Which one of them becomes the #1 isn’t clear at this point. But Parker will have the 3 [itch mix and the command to front the rotation. If he can do that from the three slot in the rotation, he’ll find better matchups going in his favor.
The bottom line is really going to come down to how good Trevor Bauer will be.
I see Parker as a 175 strikeout pitcher with excellent walk rates who keeps his team in most games and has a long term run of success with little downside.
Check back soon as we profile many more Top MLB Prospects and also get our baseball geek on and take a look at some of the later draft picks from the 2011 draft that we think could be big names on the prospect radars in the near future. While you’re here, take a look at our on going series Prospect Instinct | Bryce Harper and be a step ahead of the game. Thanks for checking Baseball Instinct. We’re working hard to bring you the best of the minor leagues and make the site the best experience it can be. So don’t hesitate to tell us what you would like to read about. Email us now at mailbag@baseballinstinct.com.
