Casey Kelly, RHP San Diego Padres
10/4/1989
Height: 6’3″ Weight: 195
Casey Kelly was drafted in 1st round of the 2008 draft by the Red Sox. Despite falling to the 30th pick, due to signability issues that centered around his scholarship to QB the Tennessee Vols, the Red Sox went above slot and signed him for $3mm.
He was a 2 way star at Sarasota High School and was dead set on playing SS as a pro. So the Red Soxbent and let him play SS half the season and pitch the other half. But after 2 seasons of sub par hitting numbers and dominating on the mound, even Kelly couldn’t deny his future as a SP.
Casey Kelly, RHP Padres
We’re going to bypass Kelly’s SS career, but I will note that he’s an excellent athlete and just the fact that he played SS as a professional says something. So in 2009, while he was on the mound at Low-A, he dominated with a 1.12 ERA and a 21.3% K rate while walking just 4.9% of the batters he faced. Outstanding numbers that put him in top 100 lists. In his High-A debut he compiled a 3.09 ERA and kept his K/bb with at a 5.00.
In 2010, Kelly made the move to Double-A, far advanced of his age and it showed. His ERA jumped to 5.31 and while his K rate and walk stayed at passable levels, he was hit harder and his .302 AVG against shows that. But the BABIP was .360, so there was some room for a move back to a more normal level.
In the offseason, Kelly became the centerpiece prospect of the Adrian Gonzalez trade, and off to San Diego he went. He came in at #33:
33. Casey Kelly SP SD – Another son of a major leaguer, Kelly was a SS/SP and the Red Sox kept him on the mound before shipping him to SD as one of their top prospects for A-Gon. The Pads hope that Kelly will be able to front their rotation in a couple of years as the key piece in the trade. I think his mix of 4 solid pitches and good command give him a solid shot to settle into the #2 and the stadium will only help.
Let’s take a look at his pitch arsenal and mechanics and see what the Padres have now.
The Stuff
Kelly works his fastball mostly in the low 90s, but he’s starting to grow into his frame and has gotten the pitch into the mid 90s at times. His command is obviously excellent, but he just hasn’t been able to dominate with the fastball. It’s an average pitch at this time but could be above average if he can uptick the velocity with a mechanical tweak.
His best pitch is his changeup that is often times split by 10-12 mph from his fastball. It comes out of the same arm slot and when he’s working with his fastball in the low 90s, it has similar arm speed as well.
His 3rd pitch is a curveball that needs work, especially if he’s going to be dominant enough to be more than a #3 starter. The pitch has good tilt, but he lacks the same plus command that he has with the other two offerings.
The Mechanics
Let’s take a look at some video for Kelly and see if there are any red flags in his delivery:
The biggest observation that stands out, is that while he uses his height to come in on a downhill plane, he doesn’t use enough leg extension. It leaves him seemingly short-arming pitches when he could just get a little more extension and drive toward the plate. It would keep him from leaving so many pitches up in the zone.
As far as his health, the mechanical flaw doesn’t seem to leave him in a position of extreme stress on his elbow or shoulder. So I don’t see him as anymore of an injury risk than your average pitcher.
Our Instinct
The ultra high upside that Kelly had coming out of High School is starting to wane some. His mechanics and lack of any true plus pitches leave him someone where in the middle. He’s very athletic and is still learning to use all of his pitches so there is more upside from what we got the chance to see in 2011, but he isn’t showing the dominance we like to see in a future ace.
He’s already in Double-A and will probably start a third season there in 2012. He’s close to the majors, has a great home ballpark and the downside to his game is limited. But so is his upside.
I think Kelly will make it to San Diego some time in 2012 and will settle in as a #3 starter. With 3 average pitches and plus command he fits well into the middle of the rotation. He has the chance to be a winning pitcher with mid level K rates and excellent walk rates. His career numbers say that’s where his growth path is taking him and his development path has been accelerated so there isn’t much more time for him to refine his approach against lower level competitions.
Check back soon as we profile many more Top MLB Prospects and also get our baseball geek on and take a look at some of the later draft picks from the 2011 draft that we think could be big names on the prospect radars in the near future. While you’re here, take a look at our on going series Touch’em All | Appalachian League and be a step ahead of the game. Thanks for checking Baseball Instinct. We’re working hard to bring you the best of the minor leagues and make the site the best experience it can be. So don’t hesitate to tell us what you would like to read about. Email us now at mailbag@baseballinstinct.com.
