Junior Lake, SS Chicago Cubs
3/27/1990
Height: 6’3″ Weight: 215
Junior Lake was signed by the Chicago Cubs in 2007 out of San Pedro in the Dominican Republic. The then 17 year old, Lake went to the Cubs DSL Academy where he flashed some early signs of power with a rifle arm. He hit .274 with 16 doubles and 3 HR in 223 AB which was good for a .130 IsoP. That’s a number that is excellent for such a young MI.
In 2008 he was sent to the Rookie level Arizona League for his US debut. He again flashed an underlying plus power tool with a .135 ERA but a 20%+ K rate and a sub-5% walk rate flashed some red flags and signs of work to be done.
Junior Lake, SS Cubs
The Cubs sent him to Peoria in Low-A in 2009 and it proved to be a test for the young SS. His K rate skyrocketed and his walk rate dropped, His IsoP dropped a little and this was the first season where he went over 300 where he hit .248 over 490 AB. You would think that this performance would slow his rise up the charts, but in 2010, the Cubs promoted Starlin Castro to the show and that opened the SS position at High-A FSL. That’s where Lake spent his 2010 season. And despite some elite tools, he was over his head.
His first go around in the FSL produced a .264 AVG with 18 doubles and 9 HR in 394 AB. So the power returned at a higher level which was a positive, but the 99 strikeouts were more than can be accepted for a MI without elite level power. But you have to remember his age to level, and in Lake’s case, he was young for the pitcher dominated FSL. Yet he survived and the Cubs finally slowed his rise because they could. Castro had solidified his spot in Chicago.
So in 2011 he started back in the FSL. So you would expect him to be more successful since he was repeating the level. Well let’s take a look at the bat and the glove and see what’s making this young SS a top prospect.
The Bat
Let’s take a look at some video from the FSL this season.
I got the chance to see Lake a few times this season in April and May during his 2nd stint in the FSL. He went .315 with 11 doubles, 4 triples and 6 HR. Good for a .183 IsoP. But he added a new skill this season. He stole 19 bases in those 49 games. So over all his offensive game took a huge step forward. There are some warning signs still though as his walk rate dropped to 2.8%.
He was moved up to Double-A Tennessee and still hit .296 with another 6 HR and another 19 SB.
Before getting into the Instinct section we need to talk about Lake’s AFL season as well. In the offseason league where teams send their top prospects to start polish and refine their game, Lake is hitting .298 with 5 HR and 15 SB in 84 AB.
The Glove
Lake has a plus arm. It’s more than enough to handle SS, 3B or RF and that’s the consensus at all of the publications that actually dig this deep. But most question his glove and that in the long run will what determines his future defensive home. I’ve watched him play and I don’t think it’s a stretch for him to handle SS. But 3B is probably his long term home.
Our Instinct
Junior Lake wasn’t in our Top 100 this preseason, but we’ve been following closely and got out there to see him often. There are two outcomes with a player as talented as Lake. He could mature into an excellent player or never grasp the mental side of hitting and strike out far too much to ever be a usable full time player.
He has finally learned to use his speed and is now stealing bases at a pace that was expected but never realized. This is because of his approach and trust of his natural tools. So that tells me that he’s capable of learning this game at a high level. If he can bring his K rate down to 20% while boosting his walk rate north or 7%, not only will his OBP move in the right direction, but with his contact ability he’ll get better pitches to hit and utilize his power with.
Even though he’s reached Double-A at a young age, there is still a pretty big separation of possible outcomes with Lake’s final skill set when he reaches the majors. But I do think that he is a talent that will reach the majors. He’ll probably start 2012 back at Double-A with the expectation that he dominates the level and moves on to Triple-A midseason.
He could reach Chicago by 2014 and has the upside to be a 20/20 type with more upside on both sides of that equation. But with Castro at SS and the better defender, Lake will need to fully develop his power to be an above average 3B or RF. The power is there. The question will be can he fully tap into it.
Check back soon as we profile many more Top MLB Prospects and also get our baseball geek on and take a look at some of the later draft picks from the 2011 draft that we think could be big names on the prospect radars in the near future. While you’re here, take a look at our on going series 2011 MLB Draft | Second Basemen Review and be a step ahead of the game. Thanks for checking Baseball Instinct. We’re working hard to bring you the best of the minor leagues and make the site the best experience it can be. So don’t hesitate to tell us what you would like to read about. Email us now at mailbag@baseballinstinct.com.
