Jaff Decker, OF San Diego Padres
2/23/1990
Height: 5’10″ Weight: 190
Jaff Decker was drafted by the Padres in the 1st round of the 2008 draft. Selected #42 over and signed to an $892,000 bonus as an 18 year old. After signing he hit .352 with 11 doubles, 2 triples and 5 HR in 159 AB in the Arizona Rookie League. Good for the league MVP. With a 25.5% walk rate and 16.7% K rate he was hitting on all cylinders.
In 2009, Decker, having made a name for himself, didn’t disappoint. In the Midwest League as a 19 year old, Decker hit .299 with 25 doubles and 16 HR flashing a .215 IsoP and an elite 18.7% walk rate while keeping his K rate at a reasonable 20.2%.
Despite playing in just 79 games in 2010, Decker, was still able to produce a .238 IsoP with 14 doubles and 17 HR. His power continues to develop which a big positive and his walk rate came down but was still an elite level 13.5%. His K rate did jump 23% though and with that his AVG dropped to a career low .262. But with illness and injury and being a 20 year old in the Cal League, the season was still an overall success.
The career performance had him on our radars high enough that is garnered an aggressive Top 100 List ranking at #47:
Jaff Decker, OF Padres (Photo by Don Boomer | staff photographer)
Jaff Decker OF SD – With less power than Rizzo, Decker is still the best all around hitter in the system. He’s had some injuries and isn’t the best defender but he could prove to be a .300 hitter with decent power generating some 20 HR seasons.
Let’s take a look at his 2011 season and see how he came through in his first Top 50 prospect season.
The Bat
Clearly from his career numbers, Decker is a walks machine and is developing 20 HR power. In 2011, he walked 103 times and hit 19 HRs. Good for another elite level walk rate and a .181 IsoP. But his K rate moved up again and he totaled 145 strikeouts causing additional deterioration of his batting AVG down to .236 over 496 AB.
He has power in his stocky frame and uses it to all fields, which will be needed in Petco. He also has proven that his patience is an elite tool and he will get on base at a major league clip. But with the dropping AVG and rising K’s, he’s doing a weaker impersonation of Jack Cust right now and that is not who this player is.
Decker has excellent hand eye coordination and with is patience he shouldn’t swinging and missing as much as he is.
The Glove
Decker is build like a tank and isn’t going to be anything more than an average defender at a corner OF spot. To be average, he’s going to need to work very hard.
He has an above average arm that plays well in RF and LF. But that will be the biggest plus in his defensive ability.
Our Instinct
Decker is going to need to cut down on the strikeout rate in 2012 in order for him to bring the AVG back up to a playable major league level.
His ranking in the preseason as I mentioned, was aggressive. His projection had me thinking that a bounce back in his contact rate was there and that his batting average move back towards the .300 mark. Based on his hand eye ability I still that he’ll gain a good portion of that average back in 2012. Possibly leaving him as a .280 hitter with 20 HR power and .400+ OBP on an annual basis. With his subpar defense projection, those numbers don’t put him into the All Star level prospects, but he has a good chance at becoming a producing major leaguer. Possibly near the mid point of 2012.
The downside is a Jack Cust type with less power. Not ideal based on the hitting ability that has been hidden in this prospect profile the past 2 seasons.
Check back soon as we profile many more Top MLB Prospects and also get our baseball geek on and take a look at some of the later draft picks from the 2011 draft that we think could be big names on the prospect radars in the near future. While you’re here, take a look at our on going series 2011 MLB Draft | Shortstops Review Part 3 and be a step ahead of the game. Thanks for checking Baseball Instinct. We’re working hard to bring you the best of the minor leagues and make the site the best experience it can be. So don’t hesitate to tell us what you would like to read about. Email us now at mailbag@baseballinstinct.com.
