Stetson Allie, RHP Pittsburgh Pirates
3/13/1991
Height: 6’2” Weight: 220
Stetson Allie was drafted in the 2nd round and 52nd overall pick by the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 2010 amateur draft. Due to a high signing bonus demand (which ended up being $2.5 million for the Pirates), Allie fell a little farther in the draft than had been expected. The Pirates were willing to pay the large signing bonus for one reason…he could throw hard and fast. His numbers in St. Edwards HS, Ohio school were almost the kind you would see in a video game with 91 k’s in 40 innings pitched and 1.05 era. So this pick came with a lot of fanfare and a high degree of interest to prospect watchers. We ranked him as the 19th overall talent coming into the 2010 amateur draft. This is what we had to say about him at the time:
Stetson Allie, SP Pirates
Allie has pure raw heat. Clocking high 90s at every stop and plus plus raw power as a hitter. He could easily be going in this draft as a hitter, but his plus plus fastball is what will get him drafted in the first round. His mechanics are all or nothing and extremely violent. His slider is second plus offering and he can dial it to 90 mph with hard and tight break. I think Allie will fall into the later part of the 1st round because of his lack of a third pitch and polish. He’s going to be a project and would probably be better served attending North Carolina to see if he can be the hitter his attitude says he might be. The chances of him becoming a bulldog SP is a long shot. But a dominant RP is a good bet.
Because of the fact that Allie signed late in 2010, we weren’t able to see him play professional ball until 2011. Prior to the start of the 2011 season we ranked him 96 in our top 100 prospect, noting that he pitches with maximum effort and lacks secondary pitches. Now we are finally able to reconcile a seasons’ worth of data with the hype and expectations that seem to follow Allie. So far the returns are not good.
The Stuff
It is time to cue the Ricky Vaughn “Wild Thing” clip from the movie Major League. Just like the Ricky Vaughn character, Allie throws hard and has no idea where his pitches are going. Let’s break them down.
Fastball – Allie brings heat with both his 4-seam and 2-seam offerings. He consistently pitches in the high 90’s and has reportedly touched triple digits in the past. It doesn’t take much time watching Allie pitch to see why he averaged 20.5 k/9ip in high school. His fastball is the definition of a power pitch and simply overmatches a lot of the hitters that he faces. Because his FB is so intimidating, Allie can get overly reliant on it and become a one-dimensional pitcher. He can go entire innings where he throws nothing but his plus/plus FB.
Slider – In some ways this offering provides even more optimism than Allies’ premium FB. Allie can throw his slider between 88-91mph. The fact that he can throw a breaking pitch harder than many players can throw a maximum effort FB is remarkable on its’ own merit. But the best part about Allie’s slider, is that it has a sharp and tight break to it. If thrown enough and, with enough consistency, this pitch could become devastating. With a useful slider Allie could force hitters to be cognizant of the slider and prevent them from gearing up for the FB. Allies’ slider flashes as a plus pitch, but lacks consistency.
Changeup – While there are reports of a curveball that sits in the 85-87 mph and has sink to it, there doesn’t seem to be anyone that can produce evidence of it. He has used it very little is his short professional career. This pitch is extremely important for Allie. The Pirates should give him generous opportunity and instruction in the development of this pitch. It is likely the difference between Allie being a starting pitcher and a reliever. At this point in time, the changeup is nowhere near being a major league offering.
With a plus/plus FB and a plus slider offering, what’s not to like? Well there is one giant obstacle for Allie to overcome. His command is adequate on some days and non-existent on others. I have seen video of Allie pitching exclusively fastballs and still not being able to find the strike zone. A look at the Allies mechanics might be very helpful in exploring this further.
The Mechanics
Take a look at this video of Allie during an intrasquad game in March:
It has been written that Allie doesn’t so much pitch to the batter, but rather throws for the radar gun. Watching much video of Allie is to see each pitch turn into a max-effort event that is so violent it should be rated-R. After watching video from several games it becomes apparent that Allie does not have a repeatable delivery and that would definitely account for much of his control issues. He tends to bring his front leg farther back than most pitchers, he then strides toward home plate with a corkscrewing action. Instead of striding directly towards home plate, his front foot plants all over the place. There are times when he comes into fielding position and is well balanced. However, there are other times where he is falling off towards first base, which causes him to take a step or two towards first base to catch his balance. Then there are times where his front foot plants off to the third base side causing him to throw across his body. The problem is a complete lack of consistency with his footwork, and as a result the entire delivery is compromised. The key here is to focus on a clean, repeatable delivery; even it comes at the expense of a couple of ticks in velocity. When a pitcher can approach triple digits in velocity, the key is to be able to find the strike zone, not throw harder. This can only happen if some significant corrections are made to Allies’ overall throwing motion.
Our Instinct
Stetson Allie is still exactly what he was when the Pirates drafted him in 2010; a high-ceiling, high-risk thrower. During the 2011 season he pitched 26 innings and fanned 28 batters. However, in those same 26 IP’s he issued 29 free passes and beaned 9 hitters. Because he allowed so many base runners, he had an inflated 6.58 era. And therein lies the Stetson Allie conundrum. His current results aren’t very good, but you just can’t ignore what he could be.
The Pirates drafted Allie to be a starter, and he certainly has a big frame that could withstand the physical demands of an innings-eating workload. In order for Allie to be a successful SP, the Pirates would need to help him develop a third pitch in addition to fixing the mechanics of his two current offerings. As we stated at the time of the 2010 draft, Allie probably fits best as a “shut down” closer. This would definitely fit his intimidating demeanor on the mound and his stuff, which potentially can become dominant. While there has been no official change from SP to RP in Allies’ status, it is worth noting that Allie appeared as a reliever for the last month of the 2011 season. There is no doubt that Allies’ 2011 was disappointing by any measure. However, he is only 20 years of age and this was his first year of professional ball. His pure stuff is just too good to ignore and it is way too early to give up on him. The potential career outcomes for Allie range from top half of the starting rotation to flame out in the lower minor leagues. The Pirates need to be patient him and allow Allie the time to get his mechanics correct. With a defined role and clear focus, Allie could become one those pitchers that makes fans stop what they are doing to watch him pitch. At this point however, he is simply a hard-thrower…not a pitcher.
Check back soon as we profile many more Top MLB Prospects and also get our baseball geek on and take a look at some of the later draft picks from the 2011 draft that we think could be big names on the prospect radars in the near future. While you’re here, take a look at our recent article in our top 10 series: Arizona Diamondbacks Top 10 Prospects List and be a step ahead of the game. Thanks for checking Baseball Instinct. We’re working hard to bring you the best of the minor leagues and make the site the best experience it can be. So don’t hesitate to tell us what you would like to read about. Email us now at mailbag@baseballinstinct.com.
