Welcome once again to another installment of Baseball Instinct’s top 10 prospects list. We’ve been collaborating with other sites who follow their teams of interest very closely and it’s been a great partnership for us. Today, we are keeping it in-house as I take a look at the “Miami” Marlins. The Marlins have been in the headlines lately for their Major League exploits, namely the signing of RP Heath Bell away from the Padres and SS Jose Reyes from Mets. Down on the farm, it’s a little different story. While there’s definitely talent there, it is depleted and with the signing of top free agents, the 2012 draft will also take a hit for the Marlins.
Christian Yelich, OF Marlins
1. Christian Yelich, OF 12/5/1991 H: 6’4″ W: 189 – Hey, what a way to celebrate your birthday. By being ranked as the #1 prospect of the Miami Marlins. Drafted in the 1st round of the 2010 draft, Yelich has yet to disappoint. He was the best hitter in the organization in 2011, posting a triple slash of .312/.388/.484 in 461 at-bats, with an ISoP of .172. For you fantasy geeks, the toolsy outfielder 15 HR and 32 SB. He should be hitting High-A Jupiter of the Florida State League and we will be there to take video and give you a much more detailed scouting report of this newly turned 20-year-old.
Our Instinct: I can’t wait to see him in the FSL. Even in this pitching friendly environment he should do well and move on to AA Jacksonville fairly quickly. With the Marlins making serious noise this off season, it makes it less likely they will rush him to the majors – though, ff he continues to plays well, he just may push Logan Morrison off the team for pitching. Logan Morrison for James Shields anyone? Most likely though, he could get a cup of coffee in September and compete for a job in 2013.
2. Jose Fernandez, RHP 7/31/1992 H: 6’3″ W: 215 – Fernandez, who was the Marlins 2011 1st round draft pick, went all the way to the deadline to sign with the Fish. Born in Cuba, Fernandez went to high school in Tampa, Florida where he pitched very well and was on the national showcase circuit. He got into 2 games, 1 in the GCL, the other in the NYP and showed flashes of brilliance, but also lacked control. Really, not enough here to go on after just 4.1 innings. He’s armed with a 92-94 mph fastball, that could develop further. He’s got 3 off speed pitches that are already average, with room to grow into something special. Solid pick by the Marlins here.
Our Instinct: Despite the talk of not having the body to be a starter, he’s definitely got the make up and the arsenal of pitches for it. I believe his floor is that of a lock-down 8th inning type, with stud closer stuff. I’m willing to bet though that his ceiling is at least a solid #2 in the majors. Very anxious to see him work a full season and since he’s a year old for a typical high schooler, look for the Marlins to be aggressive with him.
Marcell Ozuna, OF Marlins
3. Marcell Ozuna, OF 11/12/1990 L 6’2: W: 190 – Ozuna posted a triple slash of .266/.330/.482 in his 1st full-season league of his career in 2011. While with Greensboro of the South Atlantic League he decreased his strikeout rate and improved his walk rate significantly. His stolen bases increased, as well as the rate, stealing 17 in 19 chances. People will be quick to jump on him for his ISoP decline, which stayed over .200, and his HR rate decline, from 21 in 270 at bats in 2010 to 23 in 496 at bats in 2011. However, he did club 5 triples and 28 doubles.
Our Instinct: He should be joining Yelich and hitting the FSL in 2012, which is fine by us, more videos for everybody! I’m not concerned about the supposed power outage here, what concerns me more is the improvement in plate discipline. Having said that, the number of walks isn’t where it needs to be yet and the FSL will be a perfect challenge for him. Stay away from breaking balls in the dirt my man! If he handles Hi-A well, he could be a premium prospect, offering the Marlins a power hitting outfielder by 2014.
4. Matt Dominguez, 3B 8/28/1989 H: 6’1″ W: 205 - Drafted in the 1st round of 2007 draft along with fellow Chatsworth High School (CA) teammate and Royals 3B Mike Moustakas, Dominguez was set to win the 3B job for the Marlins out of spring training. He didn’t play terribly well and fractured his left elbow before he got a chance. In Tom Belmont’s Prospect Instinct|Matt Dominguez break-down, he notes that glaring and obvious things need to change with Dominguez at the plate for him to succeed at the Major League level.
Our Video
Our Instinct: I like his chances to succeed in the majors, however it is critical that the Marlins not push him until he works out these flaws. In all honesty, spending the 2012 season as a 22-year-old at AA Jacksonville is probably what the doctor would order. He’s a smart player with a good glove, who needs to make the appropriate adjustments at the plate. a .270-.280 with a potential of 20+ HR. We’ll take it.
5. Mason Hope, RHP 6/27/1992 H: 6’3″ W: 190 – Mason hope was drafted in the 5th round of the 2011 draft by the Marlins out of the Oklahoma pitching hot bed. Hope is very aggressive with his pitch repertoire that includes a fastball, curveball, and change-up. He keeps batters off balanced and uncomfortable at the plate. His 10.21 K/9 and 2.30 BB/9 show what he’s capable of right out of High School. Here is some video of Mason Hope from his final start of the GCL season:
Our Instinct: Hope was a Broken Arrow High School teammate of 2011 Diamondbacks’ pick Archie Bradley. Hope, himself should have gone in the second round, so what a tremendous pick for the Marlins. He should hit the South Atlantic League in 2012 and we will get to see what he’s really got to offer. He’s got the potential to be special and a front line pitcher, with a solid #3 being a realistic projection right now. Keep an eye on this pitcher.
6. Chad James, LHP 1/23/1991 H: 6’3″ W: 185 – James’ Hammerheads’ teammates didn’t do him any favors in 2011. He posted a 5-14 record, despite a 3.80 ERA and 124/51 K/BB. He has a plus fastball and 3 secondary pitches that are making progress. Hopefully, his command improves with a likely jump to AA.
Another video of ours
Our Instinct: Tom Belmont thinks that 2012 could be a break out season for James and I agree. With some improved command, a development of another out pitch, and the development of deception with his pitches he could shoot up the list soon. Chad James requires keeping an eye on. He’s projects as solid #3, possibly as high as a #2 and could see action with Marlins in September, but more likely sometime in 2013.
7. J.T. Realmuto, C 3/18/1991 H: 6’1″ W: 190 – Realmuto hit .287/.347/.454 with 12 HR and 13 SB in 2011 at Single-A Greensboro. He’s another position player set to debut in the FSL in 2012 and we will be there, video camera in hand. He’s got a rocket for an arm to, gunning down nearly half of those who would try to oppose him.
Our Instinct: The Marlins, not always the best judge-of-catcher (see Kyle Skipworth), signed Realmuto to over-slot money in the 3rd round of the 2010 draft. His ceiling is a Charles Johnson type catcher who can steal as many bases as he hits homeruns; think 20/20 potential for a catcher. Now, before we go overboard, his floor is Charles Johnson with little to no speed, very little pop. A guy who can gun down runners and handle a pitching staff. At the end of the day, Marlins fans will hope for the first, and settle for the latter.
8. Rob Rasmussen, LHP 4/2/1989 H: 5’10″ W: 155 – Rass’ will never be confused with former UCLA pitching teammates Gerrit Cole of the Pirates or Trevor Bauer of the Diamondbacks. Cole stands 6’4″ and Bauer 6’1″ to Rasmussen’s 5’10″, not ideal for a pitcher. Despite that, he’s one of the better pitching prospects in the Marlins’ system. He went 12-10 with a 3.64 ERA , with a 7.16 K/9 and a 4.31 BB/9 rate in the Florida State League for 2011. He throws a 93 MPH fastball that can touch 95 along with a 12-6 tight curveball. His slider is still a work in progress and is a below average offering.
Our Instinct: We’re not usually fond of below 6’0″ starters. It rarely works out. I will say, I do like Rasmussen’s stuff. I’m hopeful that he can be a 3rd-4th starter in the majors, but I’m also realistic that he may get there, and quick, out of the bullpen. He will get a healthy dose of Double-A in 2012.
9. Charlie Lowell, LHP 10/25/1990 6’4″ W: 235 – The Marlins big lefty was taken in 6th round of the 2011 draft, but could have gone as high as the 2nd round. He doesn’t have the ceiling that Adam Conley, who will appear in our Marlins top 21 list later this winter, but he doesn’t have as far to fall either. More than 4 innings of pro data will be nice, but his floor is looking like a back of the rotation guy.
Our Instinct: Lowell might have less electric stuff than others in the Marlins’ organization, but he’s very consistent and a good bet to remain a starting pitcher. He has the three pitches needed to be a starter; a good fastball, an above-average slider, and a very solid changeup. He’s got the body type and arm action to handle a heavy workload. He should make his 2012 debut in Greensboro.
10. Kyle Jensen, OF 5/20/1988 H: 6’4″ W: 230 – Some might label this placement as aggressive. I call it rewarding consistent performance. Jensen had a triple slash of .299/.373/.524 with an ISoP of .225. 22 of his 27 home runs came with Jupiter of the pitcher friendly FSL. He also cut his strikeouts down to 24%, which we will take.
Kyle Jensen Video
Our Instinct: The Marlins promoted Jensen to Double-A to end the 2012 season, and with Christian Yelich due to play in the FSL, he’s likely head back to Jacksonville for the 2012 season. He should get a look during spring training, but we’re more likely to see him in his Marlins debut in late September and could be competing for a starting job as early as 2013.
Check back soon as we profile more Top 10 Lists for each MLB team and also get our baseball geek on and take a look at some of the later draft picks from the 2011 draft that we think could be big names on the prospect radars in the near future. While you’re here, take a look at a recent article in this series:San Diego Padres Top 10 List and be a step ahead of the game. Also, check out a friend of ours for all of your fantasy sports needs. Fantasy Rundown is updated religiously and is truly an awesome resource. Thanks for checking Baseball Instinct. We’re working hard to bring you the best of the minor leagues and make the site the best experience it can be. So don’t hesitate to tell us what you would like to read about. Email us now at mailbag@baseballinstinct.com.
