Welcome back to another edition of Baseball Instinct’s Top 10 prospect list. We’re bouncing from club to club as we take a look at the top 10 prospects from each team before opening it up to our Top 21s later in the winter. We’ve been working closely with other writers who have team oriented sites and have given us a perspective on their team’s top 10. This time around however, we are staying in-house as staff writer Thomas Chu follows the Atlanta Braves very closely, and will offer some details on the Braves’ top 10.
Over the past two decades, the Braves’ farm system has been a gold mine for pitching prospects. This year is no different. The Braves’ top level pitching prospects (Teheran, Delgado, Vizcaino and Mike Minor, who graduated last year) have been so impressive that some have labeled them as the “Four Horsemen of the Pitchpocalypse.” One other noteworthy observation is the Braves’ recurring strength in international player development, particularly in Latin America. Six of the Braves’ Top 8 were all signed from Latin America and although Andrelton Simmons was a 2010 draft pick, he was originally from Curaçao.
1. Julio Teheran, RHP 1/27/1991 H: 6’2” W: 175 – Julio Teheran anchored the Braves’ AAA minor league affiliate, Gwinnett all season as a 20-year-old and the 4th youngest in the International League (IL). He ultimately won the honors as the 2011 IL Pitcher of the Year and Rookie of the Year with a 15-3 record, 2.55 ERA (3.06 FIP, .288 BABIP), 1.18 WHIP and 7.59 K/9. Teheran’s pitching arsenal includes some upper 90’s gas, although he will normally pitch in the mid 90’s for better movement and command of the ball. He also has a plus changeup and an advanced curveball that still needs some work and consistency. Teheran made his MLB debut on May 7 with a tough assignment against division rivals, Phillies, and although the performance was mediocre, he continued to post strong numbers in AAA.
Our Instinct: After the Braves shipped Derek Lowe off to Cleveland, a 2012 rotation spot opens up. Mike Minor deserves the spot for now, but Teheran should unquestionably deserve a midseason call up. Once promoted, Teheran could be here to stay. He already got his feet wet in 2011, so hopefully the nerves are gone. He might get hit a bit hard if he can’t gain a complete feel for his curveball, but I believe he’s ready to be tested by MLB bats. I would, however, like to see more strike outs next year as his K-rate dropped to 7.59 this year. With a few tweaks, especially for his curveball, Teheran could be the Braves’ bonafide ace in the next few years.
2. Randall Delgado, RHP 2/9/1990, H: 6’3” W: 200 – Signed out of Panama in 2006, Randall Delgado is stuck behind the Braves’ top prospect, Teheran, for another year. However, this does not mean he will not have an opportunity. In 2011, he made his MLB debut and started seven games. While Delgado had a 2.83 ERA in those seven starts, his 5.14 FIP and .220 BABIP indicate that he was very lucky and unable to sustain a sub-3.00 ERA just yet. Randall Delgado throws a plus fastball with movement in the low 90’s, which he’s been known to hit 96 mph. His curveball and changeup flash plus potential from game to game, but are not consistently at that level yet.
Our Instinct: Delgado is only 21 and only has 21+ innings in AAA, so it is no surprise that he isn’t ready yet. It’s our belief they moved him up too fast. While he’s still looking like a #2 to us, he needs some time at Double-A, but may not get it. If he’s going to be rushed to the Major’s again, his upside may drop from a #2 to a back of the rotation guy. The Braves need to be careful here and not damage one of their prized righties.
3. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP 9/13/1990 H: 6’0” W: 190 – Acquired from the New York Yankees in 2009 for Javier Vazquez, Arodys Vizcaino was an intriguing prospect with an arm that screamed high upside. Fast forward to 2011 and he is considered the fourth and final piece of the Braves’ “Four Horsemen.” Vizcaino dominated every stop between HiA-Lynchburg and AAA-Gwinnett in 2011 much like Teheran’s 2010 season. In August, Vizcaino found himself in the majors as part of the Braves’ bullpen in order to give him some MLB experience, preserve his arm and prepare him for the Braves’ “playoff run”. He has a plus fastball bordering on plus-plus that generally sits between 92-94mph with good life, but pitching in relief, Vizcaino is capable of unleashing high heat in short bursts – a fastball that touched 98mph. However, his “hammer curve” is his best pitch and one of the best curveballs in the Braves’ system. He suffered a partial tear of his ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) late in the 2010 season, but he rehabbed it and it did not seem to bother him this past year. I trust the Braves will monitor any durability concerns carefully.
Our Instinct: This trade was a huge gamble, but the move is paying off its dividends now. There are ongoing talks that the Braves will continue to use him out of the bullpen in 2012 and I have no real problems given his injury and durability concerns. Vizcaino is an elite arm in the Braves’ farm system and if he remains in the pen, his upper 90’s fastball and hammer curve give the Braves a third potential bonafide closer behind Johnny Venters and 2011 NL Rookie of the Year, Craig Kimbrel.
Christian Bethancourt, C Braves
4. Christian Bethancourt, C 9/2/1991 H: 6’2” W: 190 - In the post-Heyward and Freeman days, Christian Bethancourt takes over as the Braves’ top hitting prospect. The Braves discovered the Panama native as a 16 year old with a wiry frame. Since his arrival, Bethancourt has had a reputation for his defensive skills behind the plate, particularly an arm that gunned down 38% base stealers in the 2011 season. Bethancourt’s offensive stats (.303/.323/.430) improved against Sally League pitching. Midseason, the Braves promoted him to Hi A-Lynchburg. His stats in the Carolina League were decent (.271/.277/.325), but in no way did he struggle. He followed up his 2011 season by stepping up in the AFL and impressed many scouts, both defensively and offensively. In the AFL, Bethancourt hit .306 and slugged .556, matching the 5 HRs he had all season. Although the AFL favors hitters, Bethancourt is only 20 and was one of the youngest players and played well against older competition.
Our Instinct: The Braves are strong in pitching, but they also have a few lower level prospects that could have some star power headlined by Bethancourt. Hes always been a free swinger and an aggressive hitter, but he has fairly decent contact skills. Recently, he acknowledged that he needs to develop more patience and take more walks (a weakness). Power might be an issue, but if he can consistently drive the ball and walk a bit more, anything more will be icing for the Braves. He might not be a Brian McCann, but he has the tools to be an above average, all-around everyday catcher in the near future.
5. Edward Salcedo, 3B/1B/OF 7/30/1991 H: 6’3”, W 195 - Edward Salcedo signed as an international free agent by the Braves in 2010. He was one of the top prospects coming out of Latin America in 2008, but an MLB investigation (that proved nothing!) delayed his signing and development by two years. After a strong first half (.268/.346/.420 and a June slug of .536), I thought the 2011 season would be a breakout year for him. I expected the Braves to promote Salcedo to AA Lynchburg when they bumped up Bethancourt, but it never materialized. His numbers in the second half took a nosedive and he never gave the Braves’ organization a reason to promote him thereafter.
Our Instinct: So far, I’d say Salcedo is justifying the Braves’ investment in him when they signed him out of the Dominican Republic in 2010. Salcedo is still very raw, but he has one of the highest ceilings in the Braves system. He has quick enough wrists and worked on shortening his swing last year. If he can continue making strides and develop, he can tap into his offensive, power ceiling. Whether Salcedo takes over for Chipper or a move to 1st or OF is necessary, his bat should play well almost anywhere.
6. Tyler Pastornicky, SS 9/13/1989 H: 5’11” W: 170 - The Braves are well-known in developing pitchers and this year is no different. While the Braves’ future rotation looks stacked, they also have a collection of shortstops that could step in after Alex Gonzalez. The Braves’ haven’t had a stable shortstop since Rafael Furcal and although none of their prospects shares his potential, hopefully one will provide the Braves wit some stability. The list starts with Tyler Pastornicky, a prospect that the Braves acquired when they traded Yunel Escobar to the Blue Jays. He hit .315/.359/.414 with 7 HR, 45 RBI, 65 runs and 27 SBs in stops at AA and AAA in 2011. He doesn’t walk as much as you’d like to see, but has great strike zone management, as his 45/32 K/BB rate in 2011, and 194/150 four year career mark would suggest.
Our Instinct: Pastornicky is an option for the Braves right out of camp in 2012 and Manager Fredi Gonzalez indicated today that Pastornicky is his guy. Will they bring in a veteran? Possibly, but they’ve been known to start rookies right out of the gate. Pastornicky is a baseball rat. His skill set doesn’t suggest he will be an above average SS, but his make up may allow him to be a starter, or at minimum a super-utility type capable of playing multiple positions.
7. Andrelton Simmons, SS 9/4/1989 H: 6’2” W 170 - Based on the stats this year, Simmons and Pastornicky have a similar offensive profile: good feel for hitting, makes good contact, and good batting eye, but lack power. Simmons’ defensive prowess is highly regarded by the Braves and other Carolina League managers this year. Andrelton Simmons was a two-way player coming into the 2010 draft. Simmons possessed a darting fastball that reached 98mph and Gold Glove-caliber defense at short. The Braves took him as a pitcher, but Simmons wanted to play every day. Coming into the season, Simmons worked on shortening his swing and using his wrists more. Simmons’ numbers this season have responded favorably: he won the Carolina League batting title by 21 points hitting .311 and his ISO climbed to .097 from .079.
Our Instinct: There is no question that Simmons is the Braves’ best defensive infielder and best infield arm. The question is his bat. With a good year in Mississippi next year, Andrelton Simmons could move past Pastornicky as the Braves’ shortstop of the future. Simmons could still add some bulk on his 6’2”, 170lbs frame and hit for more power potentially. As a native of Curaçao, Simmons might not be the next Andruw Jones, but he is a strong candidate to overtake Pastornicky. Of Course, if his bat can’t carry him, he can always fall back to the 98mph heater.
8. Carlos Perez, LHP 11/20/1991 H: 6’2” and W:195 - At the start of the season, Perez’s fastball was sitting at 93mph, the high-end of his range from 2010, with good movement. He also had a sharper 12-6 curveball and changeup – all great signs in the development of a young, rising pitching star. However, Perez’s performance in Low A Rome this year was far from impressive. For many, his season made him a disappointment. Perez’s season is not as bad as his 4.82 ERA and 4.75 BB/9 walk rate. He was a bit unlucky as exemplified by a .323 BABIP and 3.83 FIP – almost a full run down from his ERA. Perez’s 7.85 K/9 strikeout rate was also 0.70 higher than 2010. Although his ground ball ratio did drop significantly, Perez still allowed 1.30 groundball outs for every air out.
Our Instinct: Two issues probably contributed to Carlos Perez’s troubles this past season: pitching delivery and command. His delivery has often been characterized as “herky-jerky” and difficult to repeat, which probably leads to his command issues (rather, the lack of) as his walk rate (BB/9) increased by 0.83. As a result, Perez might have a hard time harnessing his stuff and true potential. Ups and downs are common for young prospects, but the good tools and positive signs are there. He’s not ready to replace Mike Minor in the “Four Horsemen” yet, but the tremendous potential is there. Going into 2012, the Braves need Perez to focus on filling out his frame, refining his mechanics and building up his arm strength.
9. Joey Terdoslavich, 1B 9/9/1988 H: 6’1” W: 200 - Selected in the 6th round of the 2010 draft out of Long Beach State for his power potential, Joey Terdoslavich’s name is already in the history books even before his MLB debut. In 2011, he shattered a 65-year old Carolina League record by hitting 52 doubles in addition to 20 HRs. Overall, the switch hitter posted one of the better offensive years amongst all Braves’ prospects with a balanced .286 average, .240 ISO and a 7.6% walk rate. Although Terdoslavich bats from both sides, scouts say his left-handed swing is “really smooth” and has “more rhythm.” He can continue to switch hit thought since he hits both righties and lefties fairly equally. The one thing worth noting is that his strike rate jumped significantly in different leagues (2010: 15.5%; 2011: 20.0%; AFL ‘11: 32.1%), although power hitters do tend to strike out more.
Our Instinct: Terdoslavich was the Braves’ 2011 Minor League Player of the Year after destroying the Carolina League doubles record. Many pessimists/nonbelievers argue that Terdoslavich was simply too old for the league. However, he followed his 2011 season in HiA Lynchburg with another amazing performance in the AFL. Terdoslavich was named to the 2011 AFL Top Prospect team and proved himself well against more advanced competition in the AFL. During the AFL Rising Stars game, he went 3-3 with another double and a home run off #1 draft pick in 2011, Gerritt Cole. I think it’s obvious that he’s definitely ready for heavier competition.
Sean Gilmartin, LHP Braves
10. Sean Gilmartin, LHP 5/8/1990 H: 6’2” W: 195 - Many polished left-handed pitchers drafted by the Braves are automatically compared to Tom Glavine. As a first round pick in the 2011 First Year Player Draft, Sean Gilmartin was a bit of a surprise for some, but the selection reminded many of another recent first round draft pick, Mike Minor. Both are lefties and both entered the draft possessing a low 90’s fastball, an outstanding changeup and fairly good command. In his first taste of the minors, he went 2-2 with a 3.09 ERA and struck out 31 in 23.1 innings in LoA Rome. Gilmartin also pitched against more advanced competition in the AFL and displayed remarkable command of his pitches. The Braves also love his maturity and competitive makeup.
Our Instinct: It’s way too soon to compare Sean Gilmartin to Tom Glavine or even Mike Minor, who added mileage to his fastball in 2011. So far, he’s shown good command in the minors walking 10 in 52.1 innings and a plus changeup holding lefties to a .154 average in the AFL. He’s polished and may have mid-rotation potential, but I have my reservations. The Braves will probably start him in HiA or even AA in 2012, but if all goes well, he should follow a similar path that Mike Minor did and move through the system quickly.
Check back soon as we profile more Top 10 Lists for each MLB team and also get our baseball geek on and take a look at some of the later draft picks from the 2011 draft that we think could be big names on the prospect radars in the near future. While you’re here, take a look at a recent article in this series:San Francisco Giants Top 10 List and be a step ahead of the game. Also, check out a friend of ours for all of your fantasy sports needs. Fantasy Rundown is updated religiously and is truly an awesome resource. Thanks for checking Baseball Instinct. We’re working hard to bring you the best of the minor leagues and make the site the best experience it can be. So don’t hesitate to tell us what you would like to read about. Email us now at mailbag@baseballinstinct.com.
