2013 MLB Draft: Preview
With the 2013 MLB Rule 4 First-Year player draft coming up on June 6th, we’ve been working extra hard around here to bring our Baseball Instinct preview of the top players available for the draft. Our list is by no means a mock draft, as predicting what teams should do isn’t our thing. Sure it’s fun to do, but with baseball the possibilities are endless. What we will do is give you our very best list of top talents based on our reports on these players. Those players that we didn’t see ourselves we spent extra time compiling data from scouts and friends of ours that did see them. It’s going to be a BIG weekend here at Baseball Instinct and we hope you’ll be pleased with the resources. Check us out on Draft Day as we’ll be doing live updates on the site with each selection as well as on our Twitter feed: @BaseballInstinc. Here is the 1-25 , 26-50, and the 51-75.
It all starts Tomorrow. It’s like Christmas day for us in the prospect hunting world. So check out the last leg of our top 100 and get ready for a fun day.
76. Tyler Skulina, RHP Kent State 9/18/1991 H:6’5″ W:225 – Skulina has a low to mid 90s fastball and a power slider. He uses a curve as well but it should be scrapped eventually. Very inconsistent this year, so he’s fallen on many draft boards. Sounds like a pitcher that could use some development.
Our Instinct: He still needs work on a changeup in order to remain a SP, but a big workhorse frame should give teams reason to try and refine him into a mid rotation type.
77. A.J. Vanegas, rhp, Stanford 8/16/1992 H:6’3″ W:215 – A 2010 draftee, Vanegas turned down $2mm from the Padres. He won’t see that in 2013. But he does still have that power fastball into the mid 90s and a power slider. Both pitches are plus.
Our Instinct: He’ll need to refine a changeup and should get a shot with a team at the rotation before he is given a full time RP role. He could move quickly as a RP but he’ll still have untapped upside unless the SP route is tested first. A team looking for a project will give him a higher pick than the 3rd round.
78. Garrett Williams, LHP Calvary Baptist HS, Shreveport, La. 9/15/1994 H:6’3″ W:185 – Williams would be ranked higher if not for some injury concerns. He had surgery for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome and his velocity has varied greatly. At his best he’s been at 92-93 but his breaking ball projects as plus and shows plus at times already.
Our Instinct: He’s still raw, but smooth mechanics and a nice frame make him a premium target. Though with the issues, if he falls, he’ll head to college and possibly be a 1st round name in a couple of years.
79. Rowdy Tellez, 1B Elk Grove (Calif.) HS 10/24/1994 H:6’5″ W:235 – Tellez has some of the best High School power in the draft. He has a solid bat from the left side but the bat speed is just average, though his size allows him to generate excellent loft. He’s going to be relegated to 1B with his size and lack of speed.
Our Instinct: Tellez has the power of a 1st rounder, but the game just doesn’t translate for me right now. I think he’s more of a project than some anticipate. Though with his size and power he could eventually be a monster bat.
80. Rob Zastryzny, LHP Missouri 3/26/1992 H:6’3″ W:195 – They call him Friday. Big Z is the Friday night starter for Mizzou and the lefty has a low 90s fastball, can dial up a four seamer a little more, and pull the string on it for high 80s. He also uses a good changeup with fade that moves differently than his 80s fastball. He’s been a quick worker and knows what his game is.
Our Instinct: He’ll need to really refine a breaking ball but at this point he has two pitches to be successful as a RP. However, I think his future should be at the back of a rotation. If the breaking ball really clicks he could move to a 3 slot.
81. Chad Pinder, 3B Virginia Tech 3/29/1992 H:6’2″ W:190 - Pinder has good bat speed and a solid hit tool, but doesn’t hit for a lot of power at this point and it’s not projected to increase. His defense keeps him a prospect and might make him playable at 3B.
Our Instinct: Pinder will have trouble finding 20 HR per season and as a 3B he’s going to need to hit for a high average and play well above average defense to make sense at the position long term. He’ll get drafted higher than this but struggled to make our top 100.
82. Andrew Church, RHP Basic HS, Henderson, Nev. 2/10/1995 H:6’2″ W:185 – Church has been difficult to scout, but when he finds the mound he has a low 90s fastball that should be mid 90s as his frame fills out, a power curveball that could be plus, and a changeup that he already uses well.
Our Instinct: He needs reps and a lot of them. During that time, his frame should fill out and he could turn into a mid rotation starter or be a complete steal and breakout. But he has the tools you look for and will not need to be a top 2 round selection to sign. However, he does have a commitment to San Diego if he falls too far.
83. Stuart Turner, C Mississippi 12/27/1991 H:6’2″ W:220 – Turner is the best catcher defensively in this draft. He’s the furthest along and has the tools to do it at the major league level. His bat has been in question, but he’s one of the college leaders.
Our Instinct: The bat may have answered the questions, but it doesn’t seem like anyone is listening yet. Someone is going to sneak in and swipe him in the 3rd round for a cheap college steal.
84. Eric Lauer, LHP Midview HS, Grafton, Ohio 5/17/1995 H:6’5″ W:195 – Odds of Lauer getting drafted high enough to sway him from college is slim. But despite being a lot of projection, there is a high upside here. He should have a mid 90s fastball, already touching 94 on occasion. His breaking ball and changeup are raw. Solid frame and athletic.
Our Instinct: He’s a HS wide receiver, he has the athleticism many power lefties lack. He’ll take a long time to refine but he has Ace upside if properly developed. If he heads to college, he could be a high 1st round pick in 2 years.
85. Ben Lively, RHP Central Florida 3/5/1992 H:6’4″ W:195 – Good name for a pitcher with his stuff. Four pitch mix, deceptive delivery and the ball moves for him. His fastball sits in the low 90s touching 93-94. Throws a change, curve and slider. I’ve seen a cutter too, but its more his fastball movement.
Our Instinct: He’s not a beast; he’s not going to front a rotation but he has the stuff of a major league starter. If he can hold up with his deception he could turn into a mid rotation starter. That’s probably the highest upside anyone is giving him. But his stuff really plays up well.
86. J.B. Woodman, OF Edgewater HS, Orlando 12/13/1994 H:6’2″ W:190 – A bucket of emerging tools. Woodman has plus speed, a solid arm and handles CF on raw tools right now. His bat is gap to gap and he has a good approach with power to come in the future.
Our Instinct: There is some significant growth waiting in here and if he fully emerges into his tools he’s going to be a plus defender and leadoff hitter with solid power. Downside could be a OF that handles all of the positions. Significant draft sleeper.
87. Alec Hansen, RHP Loveland (Colo.) HS 10/10/1994 H:6’7″ W:215 – Big frames like this often scare me. This size on a pitcher has a large fail rate. But Hansen has had plus stuff in the cold without really getting geared up. His fastball is mid 90s touching 97 and there is high 90s on the horizon. The secondaries need development and he’s not done filling out.
Our Instinct: His mechanics, for his size, are outstanding. That’s why I wouldn’t hesitate for a second on taking him in the 3rd round as a steal if he falls. His secondaries need development but he’s still young. This could be a special pitcher. But we all know how wrong it can go sometimes with a pitcher this tall. This one I’m gambling on working out.
88. Thomas Hatch, RHP Jenks (Okla.) HS 9/29/1994 H:6’2″ W:205 – Solid frame righty. He’s just starting to come into his own, reaching the mid 90s with more regularity and has a real feel for his command already. He was more of a feel pitcher just a year ago, but the velocity spike has come on quick.
Our Instinct: His secondaries need work and he isn’t going to get much bigger, but should have a plus fastball with two average secondaries and a good feel for his command. Solid #3 upside.
89. Stephen Tarpley, LHP Scottsdale (Ariz.) CC 2/17/1993 H:6’2″ W:200 – Tarpley is going to be signable, having been drafted in 2011, going to USC and then transferring to CC to gain eligibility again. He has a solid lefty arsenal and he’ll go high enough to sign. His fastball tops out at 95 but settles in more in the low 90s range. He also throws a curve, slider and a solid changeup. All of his secondaries need time to develop.
Our Instinct: He has a solid frame now but as I said, he will need time to develop. If his fastball upticks all he will need is a couple of those secondaries to reach average and he has #3 upside. He could be even better than that though on the upside. With his current pitch mix he’s slated for development as a SP. Possible 2nd round pick.
90. Ty Young, 3B Louisville 7/17/1992 H:5’10” W:175 – Currently a 3B, Young should move to 2B as a pro could profile as a utility player with a plus plus bat. He has one of the top hit tools available and should hit at the highest level. He’s small though and won’t be a game changer.
Our Instinct: Despite his size, he has the bat to carry him if he can make himself ultra useful all over the field. Young is that type of player and his bat reminds me of Adam Eaton’s coming out of college.
91. Dustin Driver, RHP Wenatchee (Wash.) HS 10/1/1994 H:6’2″ W:210 – A Northwest SP that currently lags in development. Though his fastball touches mid 90s and he has a workhorse frame already. He has a feel for a curve, slider and change and will need some serious development time and instruction to max out.
Our Instinct: This isn’t a sink or swim project of a prospect. He has the raw stuff to be a very talented starter, but will not be able to excel on his own. I like his upside. But his success will be dependent upon the organization that takes a shot here. #3 starter with upside.
92. Jake Sweaney, C Garces HS, Bakersfield, Calif. H:6’2″ W:175 – WR. DB. Catcher. 34 game hit streak. The kid is an athlete. He’s growing into being a baseball player still but in time could be a solid catcher with a solid hit tool and power.
Our Instinct: He’s still raw behind the plate but is athletic enough to handle the transition to pro ball. His bat is just enough to where he won’t be rushed but also enough to where he could develop into a solid pro hitter. No plus tools, but average or better across the board. Low floor here though with a developing catcher.
93. Cody Reed, LHP Northwest Mississippi JC H:6’5″ W:220 – Reed is a CC player, not drafted out of High School, but a big uptick in velocity to the mid 90s now has him on the board. As a lefty, that’s premium velocity and his development is still raw enough to mold and refine.
Our Instinct: He needs to refine the changeup and slider that he uses but with how little he’s worked them that should come in time. He has a big frame and solid mechanics. He should be signable anywhere inside the 4th round. Big stuff, big upside. But he’s raw and has risk attached.
94. Dylan Covey, RHP San Diego 8/14/1991 H:6’2″ W:205 – One of our top prospects in the 2010 draft is back. He’s not a 1st round talent any longer, but a solid frame and his stuff is there. Mid 90s fastball at times and a full 4 pitch mix. Command has been a major issue for him though.
Our Instinct: Covey will need time in the minors to iron out whatever causes his command issues. His mechanics are not ideal, but not the source of his main command issues. If a team gives him the right development he could be a high end #4 starter with a workhorse mentality.
95. Drew Ward, 3B Leedey (Okla.) HS 1/25/1994 H:6’4″ W:210 - A high school SS with potential plus power. He won’t stick at SS though and there are actually questions of if he’ll even stick at 3B. His actions aren’t bad and he has a solid arm. So 3B could play.
Our Instinct: Ward is a gamble and I wouldn’t roll the dice higher than the 4th round, but he could end up as an elite level power hitter at the hot corner. It’s worth a later gamble, but he’s not a sure bet to hit enough to use that power fully.
96. Jan Hernandez, 3B Beltran Academy, Florida, P.R. 1/3/1995 H:6’1″ W:195 – A SS at the Beltran Academy, Hernandez will move to 3B when he signs. Reports are that he’s been asked to catch but hasn’t accepted the invite. He’s a good athlete and should be able to handle either move.
Our Instinct: He has the bat speed and more reps will determine if that will translate into power. He’s the top prospect from P.R. this year. I can see the transition to catcher happening. After he’s drafted. When he has little choice in the matter. It will boost his stock.
97. Myles Smith, RHP Lee (Tenn.) 3/23/1992 H:6’1″ W:175 – Smith doesn’t have the size to make a lot of noise in the draft. But his stuff is bigger than his frame. His fastball touches the high 90s at times with a plus changeup.
Our Instinct: Smith will need to refine a solid breaking ball. He doesn’t have the workhorse frame, but as he develops he could dominate lower levels and then settle into the rotation or be a power RP.
98. Michael O’Neill, OF Michigan 6/12/1992 H:6’1″ W:195 – O’Neill has plus speed, bloodlines, and solid power from the right side. He’ll need to refine his approach at the plate to really utilize his speed, but has the work ethic to do that.
Our Instinct: He’ll move slow through the minors for a college player, but if he can stick or at least prove he can handle CF he could be a solid regular or a very good 4th OF.
99. Matt Oberste, 1B Oklahoma 10/18/1991 H:6’2″ W:210 – Oberste would be higher on this list if we thought he could handle the OF, but he looks like he will be relegated to 1B. He’s a R/R so he’s going to need to really hit to make it. He has the bat, but his power is just average.
Our Instinct: He doesn’t project as a true power hitting 1B, but could be enough of a hitter to carve out a nice career. He’s one of the nation’s leaders in BA in College ball and projects to hit 15-20 HR annually. Not bad. If he can play the OF, even better.
100. Cody Bellinger, 1B Hamilton HS, Chandler, Ariz. 7/13/1995 H:6’4″ W:180 – Bellinger is still growing into his frame. Relegated to 1B, but a plus defender there. He also has a sweet left handed swing and although he still needs to grow to see his true power, he could be a 20 HR hitter in his prime.
Our Instinct: He is one of the most polished and professional hitters in the high school ranks and bloodlines can take credit for that. Bellinger will have no problem taking to pro ball but could be a tough sign away from Oregon.
Stick with Baseball Instinct and we’ll keep you a step ahead of the game. Check back soon as we release our top 21 prospects for each organization. While you’re here, check out our Baseball Instinct 360° – it’s our in-season top 360 prospects, and we will be updating it throughout the season. Also check out a friend of ours for all of your fantasy sports needs. Fantasy Rundown is updated religiously and is truly an awesome resource. Thanks for checking Baseball Instinct. We’re working hard to bring you the best of the minor leagues and make the site the best experience it can be, so don’t hesitate to tell us what you would like to read about. Email us now at firstname.lastname@example.org. And while you’re at it head over to Facebook and join the Instinct page. You can also follow us on twitter: @BaseballInstinc.