Sean O'Neill

On Deck: Jed Lowrie

by Sean O'Neill on October 1, 2010

Red Rox SS Jed Lowrie

There’s a certain middle infielder on the Red Sox. Among second basemen with at least 175 plate appearances, he ranks second in OPS. Among all middle infielders, he ranks third. He walks more than he strikes out. He hits for power. He was once ranked among the top 75 prospects in baseball by Baseball America. His name is…Jed Lowrie?!

Jed Lowrie, SS/2B/3B, Boston Red Sox:  6’0”, 180 lbs  4/17/84

Year Age Team PA AB ISOP BB% K% BABIP GB% LD% wOBA
2005 21 A- Lowell 240 201 .120 14.2% 12.5% .371 .390
2006 22 A+ Wilmington 436 374 .112 12.4% 14.9% .310 40% 15% .324
2007 23 AA Portland 407 337 .204 16.0% 14.3% .339 40% 14% .392
2007 23 AAA Pawtucket 177 160 .206 6.8% 18.6% .344 33% 19% .365
2008 24 AAA Pawtucket 231 195 .169 13.4% 18.6% .327 29% 22% .346
2008 24 MLB Boston 306 260 .142 11.4% 22.2% .342 33% 19% .323
2009 25 AAA Pawtucket 83 68 .177 15.7% 15.7% .173 19% 17% .302
2009 25 MLB Boston 76 68 .118 7.9% 26.3% .174 24% 14% .212
2010 26 MLB Boston 171 149 .228 12.3% 11.7% .279 29% 16% .377

(Statistics from Firstinning.com)

Background: A supplemental 1st round pick in the stacked 2005 amateur draft, Jed Lowrie entered professional baseball with high expectations. Converted to shortstop (Lowrie had played second base throughout college), Lowrie had a decent debut in the New York-Penn League. Promoted to the High A Carolina League in 2006, Lowrie was a disaster. He struggled with various injuries throughout the season, and his .262/.351/.374 line was a disappointment across the board.

Despite his poor 2006, Lowrie was promoted to AA to start 2007 and went on to have his best season as a pro. He hit for power, he continued to show a great plate approach, and most importantly, he began to allay the fear that he couldn’t stick at shortstop. Named the 73rd best prospect in baseball by Baseball America, Lowrie looked like the Red Sox’s shortstop of the future. Sadly, Lowrie suffered a wrist injury in May, and while he would play through the injury for the rest of the season…he simply wasn’t the same hitter. After the season, the Red Sox admitted that Lowrie had played hurt throughout the year, but it was believed that his wrist would heal with some time off.

They were wrong. After only a handful of games in 2009, Lowrie hit the DL, ultimately requiring surgery on his left wrist. Activated in late July, Jed would play for a few weeks before once again hitting the DL with wrist issues. Adding insult to injury, Lowrie was diagnosed with mononucleosis in spring training of 2010, delaying his season debut until late July. Despite his late debut, his performance in 2010 has been shocking. He has hit for the most power of his career while walking more than striking out for the first time since AA in 2007, all while playing every infield position for the Red Sox. Lowrie has been a huge bright spot for the Red Sox during what has otherwise been a very disappointing finish to the 2010 season.

Our Instinct: While it is likely over-optimistic to expect Lowrie to fully maintain his current performance in 2011, he and Dustin Pedroia could provide the Red Sox with one of the best hitting middle infield combos in the majors. That said, his role in 2011 is hard to project at this point. He could be the starting shortstop, or perhaps the starting third baseman, or he could fill a kind of super-utility role rotating among all the infield spots. While Lowrie has struggled in the past against RHP, this appears to have been primarily an effect of his wrist issues; as a switch-hitter, Lowrie was still effective from the right side, but was a disaster while batting lefthanded. His splits in 2010 appear mainly to be a byproduct of luck and small sample size more than anything else. No matter what his role is, as long as Lowrie stays healthy he should be a very valuable player given his versatility and hitting talent…so here’s hoping his wrist issues are gone for good.

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Prospect Instinct | Ivan Nova, RHP New York Yankees

by Sean O'Neill on September 19, 2010

Ivan Nova

The Yankees’ newest starting pitcher, Ivan Nova was never really considered much of a prospect. However, after a posting a 12-3 record with a 2.86 ERA for AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, Nova suddenly started getting a lot of press and then a call up in late August. The question is: what does the future hold for Ivan Nova?

Ivan Nova, SP, New York Yankees:  6’4″, 210 lbs    1/12/87

Year Age Team BB/PA K/PA BABIP GB% HR/Air FIP BsRA9
2006 19 Rookie GCL Yankees 4.2% 21.6% .267 45% 8% 3.86 3.50
2007 20 A Charleston 7.0% 12.3% .337 48% 4% 4.62 5.36
2008 21 A+ Tampa 7.2% 17.1% .356 52% 3% 3.37 4.35
2009 22 AA Trenton 10.2% 15.4% .286 64% 4% 3.76 3.58
2009 22 AAA Scranton/WB 9.6% 14.7% .330 45% 3% 4.04 4.59
2010 23 AAA Scranton/WB 8.1% 19.3% .303 54% 5% 3.61 3.75
2010 23 MLB NY Yankees 7.0% 14.8% .312 51% 8% 4.45 5.30

(Statistics from Firstinning.com)

Signed to an $80,000 bonus in 2004, Nova started his career as just another international arm that might, but probably wouldn’t, eventually turn into something useful. Nova had a decent debut in state-side ball in 2006, posting a 2.72 ERA in the Gulf Coast League with a stellar 36/7 K/BB over 43 IP. Unfortunately, full season ball would not prove to be so kind to Nova. Promoted to Charleston in the SAL, Nova was far less impressive. His K-rate plummeted, his command wasn’t particularly good…2007 simply was not a good year for Ivan Nova.

Promoted to High-A Tampa in 2008, Nova did slightly better. His K-rate went up a tad, he generated a lot of grounders…but the command still wasn’t really good, and for a 21 year old in the Florida State League, his performance wasn’t really all that laudable. Nonetheless, he was selected by the Padres in the Rule 5 draft, only to be returned after a terrible spring training. Promoted to AA to start 2009, Nova’s peripherals regressed significantly…however, thanks to an elite groundball rate Nova’s surface stats remained good with a 2.36 ERA. Promoted in mid-season to AAA, Nova’s GB rate fell precipitously, and his ERA exploded to 5.10.

Sent back to AAA in 2010, Nova had his best season as a pro. His K-rate was the highest since rookie ball, his groundball rate was excellent, and his walk rate improved (although it still wasn’t particularly good). Aside from a rough May Nova was stellar, especially after the All-Star break where he posted a 37/8 K/BB in 41.1 IP. Thus far in the MLB Nova hasn’t been quite that good, mainly due to a decline in his K-rate. Nonetheless, his combination of groundballs, strikeouts, and average command has still made him a useful piece. With Andy Pettitte injured, Nova has been crucial to the Yankees’ stretch run.

With only CC Sabathia, Phil Hughes, and AJ Burnett signed past 2010, the Yankees will need to retool their rotation for 2011, and Nova could be a part of that effort. Nova combines a low to mid 90s fastball with significant sink along with a potentially plus curveball and a solid change…a more than adequate MLB starter’s arsenal. Nova has roughly equal success against both lefties and righties (although in the past he’s shown some strange splits, struggling against righties in 2009 but doing well against lefties, and then the exact opposite in 2008). One of the keys to Nova’s success has been a recent uptick in velocity, which is not terribly uncommon even at his age. That said, an ongoing MLB investigation into allegations Nova and a Trenton teammate injected each other with B-12 (remember, that’s the stuff Miguel Tejada and Rafael Palmeiro were injecting too…) in 2009 is a source for some alarm, although nothing has come of it yet. Overall, while Nova has his question marks and had a rather unremarkable minor league career, he has the stuff to be a MLB starter, and if he can replicate his AAA numbers, he could actually be a fairly decent one. While he won’t be an ace by any stretch, Nova should be able to post an ERA in the 4.00-4.50 range, and if his K-rate returns to AAA levels a sub 4.00 ERA might even be in reach.

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On Deck: Casper Wells

by Sean O'Neill on September 9, 2010

Casper Wells recently got his first extended taste of MLB pitching, and thus far he’s crushed it.  As a 25 year old only just making the majors, Wells may seem like a guy you can afford to ignore… but he could make you regret it as soon as next season.

Casper Wells, OF, DET:  6’2″  210 lbs  11/23/84

Year Age Team PA AB ISOP BB% K% BABIP GB% LD% wOBA
2008 23
A-W. Mich 211 179 .207 10.4% 18.5% .254 43% 7%
.352
2008 23
AA-Erie 313 270 .300 9.6% 21.1% .326 36% 14% .404
2009 24
AA-Erie 365 309 .230 11.8% 27.7% .342 37% 15% .368
2010 25
AAA-Toledo 430 387 .250 7.9% 25.8% .271 38% 17% .339
2010 25
MLB-Detroit 48 45 .245 6.3% 18.8% .382 40% 14% .405

(Statistics from Firstinning.com)

A 14th round pick in 2005, Wells came into professional baseball without much hype, and for his first two seasons he didn’t show any reason why he should get any.  Wells did not show any standout skills, and given his college background his relatively lackluster performance in the low minors was disappointing.  Then something clicked in 2008.  Wells’ power numbers exploded, ballooning all the way to a stellar .300 IsoP after his promotion to AA.  Combined with a high walk rate, good speed, and decent contact rates while playing predominantly in center field, and suddenly Wells had reinvented himself as a potentially impact player.

Unfortunately, Wells was unable to consolidate these gains in 2009. He suffered a broken hamate bone early in the season, and combined with a number of other minor injuries through the course of the season, Wells’ overall performance slipped from his elite 2008.  While Wells still hit for a surprising amount of power given his hamate injury (which typically saps power substantially) and walked at a high clip, his contact rates slipped worryingly, and he no longer showed the same speed as he had in the past.  Nonetheless, going into 2010 Wells’ name was still bandied about as a guy who might contribute to the Tigers, and prior to the acquisition of Austin Jackson, some even proposed that Wells might be able to take over centerfield.

Sent to AAA, Wells was a disappointment for the first half of the season.  His power slipped even further, his walk rate plummeted, and he struck out at the highest rate of his career.  Then July rolled around. Perhaps his hamate bone had finally healed (hamate injuries often take a year or more to heal completely), or perhaps he finally got comfortable with AAA pitching…whatever it was, his numbers took off.  From July 1st on, Wells smashed 10 HRs, his IsoP was a superb .333, while at the same time he increased his walk rate to 11.6%.  Promoted to the Majors, Wells has continued his strong hitting while maintaining his improved peripherals.

With Magglio Ordonez’s Tigers career likely over, Wells has a very good shot at winning the Tigers’ RF job next season. A borderline defender in CF, Wells has more than enough range to cover RF.  While Wells no longer projects as a 20+ SB threat, he has the speed to snag at least 10 over the course of a full season, along with the power to hit 25 HRs.  When you factor in Wells’ strong BB tendencies, you have a potentially well above offensive performer.  Ultimately, the one thing that could hold Wells back is his platoon splits.  Wells simply destroys lefthanded pitching (he has OPSed at least .920 for four straight years against LHP), but his abilities against righties are more limited.  Nonetheless, Wells produced a .850 OPS against RHP in 2008, and .830 in 2009, so if he can maintain that type of production he will not warrant platooning.  Overall, Wells has the potential be a well-above average offensive performer, and one who will enter the 2011 season with virtually no hype.

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Prospect Watch: Chris Balcom-Miller

by Sean O'Neill on September 2, 2010

Tuesday afternoon, the Boston Red Sox sent reliever Manny Delcarmen to the Colorado Rockies for prospect Chris Balcom-Miller. Four and a half games out in the wild card race, the Rockies had recently lost reliever Manny Corpas to injury while set-up man Rafael Betancourt has been struggling with an abdominal issue, and it is likely that Delcarmen will be counted on to help take some of the innings those two had been pitching. While Delcarmen has been in severe decline since his strong 2008, moving to the weaker NL West could well result in some improvement in his numbers. However, the question on most peoples’ minds has not seemed to be what Delcarmen brings to the table…it’s who exactly is this Chris Balcom-Miller guy?

Chris Balcom-Miller:

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Statistics: CBM has the exact combination of peripherals you like to see in a pitching prospect. He has excellent control that he’s maintained all year (every month his BB% has been between 4 and 5%), a high K-rate with a moderate upward trend over the course of the season, and an extremely high GB rate. That said, Asheville is a Southern Atlantic League team, which means that individual pitching statistics aren’t as impressive as they’d be anywhere else (the SAL is a huge pitchers league). Asheville itself is one of the better hitters parks in the league, and CBM’s H/R splits show this (3.72 ERA at home, 2.98 away); however, as CBM’s peripherals are extremely similar at home and on the road, that’s really nothing to worry about.

Stuff: Balcom-Miller has shown a four pitch repertoire this season, with a sinker, cutter, slider, and changeup. Of those two pitches, his sinker and slider appear to be his bread and butter. While CBM does not have huge velocity (he operates in the 88-92 range), he combines strong command with good movement. While I’ve come across conflicting reports on the movement of his fastball, I think that’s due to a failure to differentiate his cutter and his sinker (some reports say his fastball shows plus horizontal movement with a little drop, others seem to indicate more of a pure sinker), but in any event praise for the pitch is fairly universal. It’d be nice if he could up the velocity, and given his frame (6-2, 190) I think that’s still possible. CBM’s slider is his best secondary offering, and is regarded as a potentially plus pitch. CBM throws the pitch in the low 80s with good movement, and importantly he throws it out of the same slot as his fastball, which adds to the deception of the pitch. Finally, while reports on Balcom-Miller’s changeup differ, it appears to have a good chance at eventually becoming a league average pitch, though its likely still a bit of a work in progress at the moment.

Mechanics: CBM’s mechanics are a wee bit jerky. While he hides the ball well, drawing it very low behind his hip, in doing so he has an extended hitch before progressing into his forward motion that needs to be smoothed out if at all possible. One other issue that did stand out was the inconsistency in his leg kick, as on some pitches he’s got a really high leg kick going, while on others it’s a much more subdued motion. This is not a huge issue, but something that might merit a little work. That said, Balcom-Miller shows a smooth arm action, and there is clearly some deception in his delivery, so while his mechanics could use some smoothing out, they don’t seem to pose a long term issue.

Our Instinct: Chris Balcom-Miller is a good pickup for the Red Sox. I like the fastball/slider combo, I like the command, and there doesn’t seem to be any huge negatives with the kid. Sure the fastball could stand to pick up a little bit of velocity, but movement and the ability to locate can make even a slower fastball into a plus pitch. Obviously the big challenge will come in the next year or two as he advances into AA, as that will really determine how much he’s gotten by on pitchability, how much he can develop his changeup, and whether or not his raw stuff will be good enough to take him to the MLB. Worst case scenario, he could always be put in relief in the hopes that that gives his fastball a little bit more juice, and allows him to showcase his fastball/slider combination. Given the Red Sox’s fading playoff chances, and Delcarmen’s declining abilities, the Red Sox did very well in this trade.

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