by Thomas Belmont on February 5, 2012
Continuing our run through the Top 10 Lists for prospects, we find ourselves at the catchers position. A position that finds some right now players that could make a serious impact as early as the beginning of this season and down through the Top 10 into our 360 for some really young backstops that could be flying up the charts this year with the likes of Realmuto, Maron, Hernandez and Alfaro. So once again, let’s take a step back and take a broad look at the minor leagues as we go position by position and bring to you the Top Position Lists with some additional players and information.
Because as we said, we’ll be analyzing the Baseball Instinct 360° not only full circle, but 365 days a year. The deeper we get into the video and our customized Instinctools Stat System the more the view changes from the top.
So let’s get into the catchers position and give you the list and some of the current thoughts.
In the Top 100
5°. Jesus Montero, C/DH, Mariners, 11/28/1989 - Montero came in at #1 on our 2011 Top 100 List based on his advanced bat at a young age and making it all the way to Triple-A as a catcher. As we said in his Prospect Instinct, a perfect storm of events have led to him being in line for a shot at the catchers position in the Bronx. His contact ability is elite regardless of where he plays. He’ll have above average power as a 20-something and elite level power in his prime. How long he actually sticks at catcher is dependent of how well Joe Girardi and Tony Pena are able to cultivate him. But those two are the reason for my optimism of a future average regular on defense and glowing reviews on offense. ETA 2012.
Update Instinct – Well, the trade to Seattle finally happened. It looks like Seattle thinks he can handle a full catchers workload. He’s not going to be the best defender in the league, I think we all know that already. But the bat is legit and fantasy players should take note now. Real baseball? His bat will need to carry him and we think it can. [click to continue…]
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by Thomas Belmont on February 1, 2012
While we’re dropping Prospect Instinct articles on a daily basis to put out the most in-depth Scouting Reports available, I’m going to take a step back and take a broad look again. This time we’ll go position by position and bring to you the Top Position Lists with some additional players and information. Because as we said, we’ll be analyzing the Baseball Instinct 360° not only full circle, but 365 days a year. The deeper we get into the video and our customized Instinctools Stat System the more the view changes from the top.
So let’s get into the 1B and give you the List and the current thoughts.
In the Top 100
30°. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Cubs, 8/8/1989 - Rizzo had an excellent season in Triple A. Hitting for an average of .331 and slugging .652, with 26 HR’s and 101 rbi’s, what is not to like? Unfortunately, that didn’t translate into the Major leagues where he turned into a strikeout machine. However, it is completely reasonable that he needs time to adjust to the major league caliber pitching. While playing a good glove and showing fine plate skills, there is every reason to believe that the best is yet to come for Rizzo. He came in at #46 on last years top 100 prospects and he has done nothing to invalidate that by his 2011 performance. With the move from the LH hitter graveyard to a park friendly to LH power hitter, Theo and Hoyer did Rizzo a huge favor. ETA 2012.
Instinct Update – With Rizzo’s move to the Friendly Confines he’s in a position to contribute right away. The Cubs front office may give him some time in Triple-A if he’s out played in Spring Training by Bryan LaHair. But LaHair is going to be 30 this year and despite raking outright in Triple-A, he’s probably not going to hold Rizzo down for too long. Consider him the bridge. [click to continue…]
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by Thomas Belmont on January 27, 2012
Dylan Bundy, RHP Baltimore Orioles
11/15/1992
Height: 6’1″ Weight: 200
Dylan Bundy was taken in the 1st round of the 2011 draft by the Baltimore Orioles. Bundy came out of Owasso High School in a very deep pitching class including Archie Bradley, Mike Fulmer and Mason Hope. Bundy is currently the best of the bunch. Out of the gate, let’s take a look at the 2011 Draft Review where Bundy was selected 4th overall despite being our #1 selection:
#1 Dylan Bundy RHP Owasso HS (OK) - This is a draft deep in pitching at the top end and there are pitchers more advanced than Bundy, but none have the ultimate upside that this kid can have. He’s a baseball rat who’s work ethic is already off the charts and he has a plus plus fastball, plus curveball and the frame to be a work horse for a long time. It’ll take a hefty bonus but he’s going to sign because the team that gets can’t afford not to sign him.
Our Instinct: The top talent in this draft and the Orioles are building a really solid big league rotation with more upcoming talent now. Great pick. Time to open the pocket-book.
And open up the pocket-book the O’s did. To the tune of a record signing bonus including a $6.225mm contract and $4mm signing bonus. Outside of dominating in High School at both Sperry and Owasso, his 2011 High School Player of Year honors saw him with an 11-0 record including a 0.20 ERA, no, not a mistake, and he hit .467.
Let’s take a look at what made Bundy our #1 Orioles prospect #9 overall in 2012 for us here at Baseball Instinct. We’ll take a look at the pitch arsenal and delve into his mechanics. [click to continue…]
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by Thomas Belmont on January 22, 2012
Shelby Miller, RHP St. Louis Cardinals
10/10/1990
Height: 6’3″ Weight: 200
Shelby Miller was drafted by the St. Louis Cardinals in the 1st round of the 2009 draft at the 19th overall spot. Outside of #1 overall selection, Stephen Strasburg, there are no other players who stand above Miller on the prospect charts. That’s 17 selections that could have potentially been organizational changing.
Midseason last year, we put out our first Prospect Instinct for Miller but he’s been in the Crosshairs of the Scope since High School coming in at #44 on our Instinct 100 in 2010 and jumping to #7 in the 2011 List where we said:
7. Shelby Miller SP STL - Miller will need to build up his innings, but we’re looking at a frontline starter in the making with Texas heat ++FB. He has a solid frame and is learning to harness what should be an above average CB and CU. Should power through the FSL and onto AA by midseason with a shot at St. Louis in 2012. We had the opportunities to see Miller on a number of occasions and the chance to talk with him during his time in the FSL in 2011 before he did exactly what we thought he would do – rip through the FSL and make the jump to Double-A. He ranked as the #1 pitching prospectin both leagues and despite an organization enforced 1 week suspension for an “Alcohol Related Incident” his character remains unmarked. So let’s get into his pitching arsenal and mechanics.
The Stuff
Miller struck out 170 in 139.2 innings of work in 2011 with 53 walks to produce an 11-6 record with a 2.77 ERA. In High-A he struck out hitters to a 37% rate with a 9.1% walk rate. One concerning note to the very dominant performance was a ground-ball rate of just 36%. A ground-ball rate that will hold up for a high K rate pitcher but could cause problems at the upper levels when the K rate levels a bit. So while he was dominant, there were adjustments that needed to be made. [click to continue…]
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