Projection Instinct: 2010 Fantasy First Basemen (1B)

1B 2B SS 3B C OF DH SP RP

#1 Albert Pujols – St. Louis Cardinals – The baseball Demi-God. Slowed in the 2H last year, but even that was better than everyone else. Full year of Holliday backing him up? Upside: Triple Crown.

#2 Mark Teixeira – New York Yankees – Handled New York well… its safe to say he’ll hit for elite power and in a powerful lineup. Ultra reliable option at 1B.

#3 Prince Fielder – Milwaukee Brewers – Scary that Prince is still getting better, adding a little patience to the power and he’s a legitimate monster. Upside: 50 HRs.

#4 Adrian Gonzalez – San Diego Padres – Best season to date in 2009. Regression of power could be in the works if he doesn’t get out of SD. But still an elite hitter getting better each year.

#5 Ryan Howard – Philadelphia Phillies – Elite power options as long as K’s don’t count against you. Regression against lefties is keeping him from 50 HRs. If he can bounce back against southpaws his Upside: 50+ HRs.

#6 Miguel Cabrera – Detroit Tigers – Just coming into his prime and has a boatload of experience and success. Is this the year he puts it all together and challenges for an AL Triple Crown? Upside .330/40/130

#7 Billy Butler – Kansas City Royals – Slight regression of the BA is probable but his power is legit and he’s coming into his own. Best years are ahead of him. Upside: 30+ HRs.

#8 Kendry Morales – Los Angeles Angels – It took Morales 4 years to finally receive his shot and he took advantage of the opportunity with a breakout campaign. If he can solve lefties and boost his power productions against them he has even more power upside.

#9 Justin Morneau – Minnesota Twins – Stress fracture in back cost him time in 2009. If the back is healed and was the reason for his power outage a return to 40+ HRs is not out of the question. Still in his prime power years.

#10 Joey Votto – Cincinnati Reds – Personal off-field issues cost him to miss valuable time, but he fought through and shined even on the anniversary of his father’s passing. That personal growth could now give him a shot at an elite bat with 30 HR power.

#11 Kevin Youkilis – Boston Red Sox – Power from the Greek God of Walks is becoming reliable but health is a concern. If back issues are in the past he should return to his normal production. Upside: 30 HRs, 100 runs, 100+ RBI.

#12 James Loney – Los Angeles Dodgers – Becoming more patient at the plate with maturity. There’s a .300+ hitter in here somewhere and 2010 could be the year he makes his first appearance. Upside: .330 with 100 RBI.

#13 Lance Berkman – Houston Astros – Age is starting to show in the Big Puma, but when healthy he’s still a elite hitter with 30 HR power. Just don’t bet the house on a full season.

#14 Derek Lee – Chicago Cubs – He stayed healthy and stepped up his production to pre-back injury levels. Another player where health will be you should only bet on health when the price is right. But Lee is a solid option even with health risks. Upside: .300/30 HRs.

#15 Paul Konerko – Chicago White Sox – Konerko had a bounce back season and his wrist showed no ill effects of the past. He is a masher and is still young enough to hold up in that mold for another couple of years.

#16 Carlos Pena – Tampa Bay Rays – Power was there in 2009 but his average dropped with a poor H%. Regression to the mean could see his average bounce back and if he can keep the balls in the air his upside is 40+ HRs.

#17 Todd Helton – Colorado Rockies – The new Todd Helton isn’t the monster power threat he once was, so don’t pay for that. But this is an elite professional hitter who has found his new niche. He’ll continue to hit for average until his body tells him no.

#18 Nick Johnson – New York Yankees – He’ll be a full time DH in 2010 and the new Yankee Stadium should help his power. If he can stay healthy again upside is .300/15 Hrs.

#19 Garrett Jones – Pittsburg Pirates – Legitimate power but paying for a a possible 30/30 player is foolish. Pay for the power and if you get the SBs consider yourself lucky and just tell everyone you’re smarter than them.

#20 Adam LaRoche – Arizona Diamondbacks – Finally put together a whole season without any real feast or famine torture of his owners. Arizona should be a good fit. Upside: 30 HRs and 100 RBIs.

#21 Jorge Cantu – Florida Marlins – Solid all around hitter and very streaky with the power. If you’re going to bet on Cantu supplying your HRs you should be careful. 2008 doesn’t seem to be his norm. He’s an all around good hitter still growing, but 30 HRs aren’t in the numbers.

#22 Casey Kotchman – Seattle Mariners – I said three years ago that his line drive approach would hamper his power and to date he has yet to become more than a groundball machine with a great eye and patience. Will someone please teach him to get his top wrist over and produce some backspin on the ball.

#23 Aubrey Huff – San Francisco Giants – Huff is moving to the NL and looking to find some consistency. He’s been streaky the past couple of seasons and never found a groove in 2009. A rebound is likely but not to 2008 levels.

#24 Chris Davis – Texas Rangers – He owns his power skill. If first half mechanical flaw was truly corrected he has the potential to hit 40 HRs in 2010. Expect bounce back year.

#25 Lyle Overbay – Toronto Blue Jays – Role player now and he hits righties well. His diminished role does limit his ABs but at least he won’t kill you when he’s facing lefties. If you can platoon him great, otherwise he’s an end gamer.

#26 Hank Blalock – Tampa Bay Rays – Injury risk regardless of where he lands. If he can find a DH role and stay healthy he’ll deliver on his power which is his best tool. If he somehow stays healthy and that’s a big if, he could hit 30 HRs. Safer play is to pay for a half season and anything else you get is bonus.

#27 Russell Branyan – Cleveland Indians – Elite power but little else is above average. Playing time will determine production and he landed someplace he should be relegated to sub-450 ABs.

#28 Chris Carter – Oakland Athletics – Carter is a player who could move well up this list in 2011. Elite power and is becoming a professional hitter as well. He’ll need to maximize his power because he’s relegated to 1B. Upside: 30 HRs.

1B 2B SS 3B C OF DH SP RP