Projection Instinct: 2010 Fantasy Third Basemen (3B)

1B 2B SS 3B C OF DH SP RP

#1 Alex Rodriguez – New York Yankees – A year removed from hip surgery and the pressure of the title is finally off of him. Don’t expect the speed to go back to elite levels, but the rest of offensive game will be elite.

#2 David Wright – New York Mets – The power outage of 2009 had nothing to do with the new stadium. His 2010 will rely heavily on the health of the Mets offense and with a little luck we’ll see a bounce back season for Wright with a power/speed combo with a possible 20/20 season.

#3 Ryan Zimmerman – Washington Nationals – Legit step up in production which was all skills based. He stayed healthy and is hitting his stride right on target for his prime production years. The gold glove caliber defense won’t do you any good in fantasy baseball but it makes him that much more fun to watch.

#4 Evan Longoria – Tampa Bay Rays – Elite power hitter just entering his prime with all skills still in a growth phase. Double digit SB’s in 2010? Sure… why not? Longoria is a pure stud in any format and the top keeper at the position.

#5 Pablo Sandoval – San Francisco Giants – The Kung Fu Panda is only 23 yet his production is is the upper echelon of corner infielders. Don’t expect the power to peak out just yet. If he can top 2009 you’ll have a top notch 3B.

#6 Gordon Beckham – Chicago White Sox – He’s moving to 2B which will make him eligible at 2 spots in most leagues. He’s going to produce enough to be a number one at 3B. Expect a little growth from his 2009 numbers and 20-25 HR power.

#7 Chone Figgins – Seattle Mariners – Figg is another 3B that will be moving over to 2B in 2010. His lack of power doesn’t play up well at 3B but his all around hit and run game still produces. He’ll be a starter at 3B in fantasy baseball and kick it up the ladder on the 2B list. 35+ stolen bases for the M’s makes him valuable in any format.

#8 Mark Reynolds – Arizona Diamondbacks – He’s always had elite power and the Dbacks finally just gave him the green light to be a crusher. He has a few more seasons of 35+ HRs in him, but when the power starts to go or his body starts to give, this will be a ticking time bomb. That time is not now. Expect more power because its for real.

#9 Michael Young – Texas Rangers – Another 20+ HR season is pushing his limits of power and he’s no longer a plus runner by any means. Father Time is catching up to Mr. Young and while the move to 3B may preserve his body some, the fact is we look for more than average power from 3B. He’s still an elite hitter so .300 can be expected again in 2010.

#10 Chipper Jones – Atlanta Braves – Chipper started showing his age in 2009 and had a dreadful second half. But he seems recommitted to staying healthy and could bounce back with another 20+ HR season while playing mentor to Jason Heyward.

#11 Aramis Ramirez – Chicago Cubs – He’s still a .300 hitter but the concern comes with the power outage of 2009. Was it simply a product of injury or is his power beginning to wane. If it was injury there might be 30 HRs here. If not, 20 might be his ceiling.

#12 Mark Teahen – Chicago White Sox – He has the skill set to be an excellent hitter and the power to be a legit 3B but he simply hits too many balls on the ground. Will the move to Chicago allow him to get a few more balls in the air. That’s questionable. But the full time gig that he seems to have gained will make him valuable 15-20 HRs are possible.

#13 Andy LaRoche – Pittsburgh Pirates – He’s 27. He finished up 2009 showing the power that has been expected. If he can keep the jump in production to match the skill set he’ll be a servicable 3B or corner infielder.

#14 Garrett Atkins – Baltimore Orioles – Elite pitch recognition and plate discipline but did he forget how to hit for power? Starting anew in Baltimore might be what he needs to forget the pressures of Colorado and Ian Stewart breathing down his neck. There’s still an excellent hitter in here somewhere. A bounce back to 20 HRs? We think so.

#15 Adrian Beltre – Boston Red Sox – Taking over 3B in Boston. Stacked lineup. More pressure. And this isn’t a player who handles pressure very well. There’s a stud in his skill set and an underachiever in his statlines. He’s getting older, injury is kicking in. If you get 20 HRs consider it a win. If you get more consider it a steal.

#16 Mark DeRosa – San Francisco Giants – He’s now 35 and people are still hanging their hopes on a repeat of 2007. But you know better than that. He’s a solid corner infielder and will produce when healthy. If he approaches 20 HRs then you got what you needed. His intangibles don’t translate to fantasy baseball production. Don’t pay for his intangibles. Pay for his production. It’s not elite. It’s not even above average.

#17 Kevin Kouzmanoff – Oakland Athletics – No respect for the Kouz as he finds another new home in Oakland. He should be able to hold the starting job on Oaktown but the new home park won’t remedy the PetCo effect completely. Even if he kicks up the power a little he’s still going to top out around 20 HRs.

#18 Ian Stewart – Colorado Rockies – He’s going to hit 40 HRs in 2010 right? Wrong. He struggles mightily against lefties and that is going to limit his overall upside. But he’s still a power bat and his skills are still growing 25+ HRs with the possibility of growth against lefties is here. One of the biggest upside in this part of the list.

#19 Scott Rolen – Cincinnati Reds – Not the Scott Rolen your Daddy knew. His first half in 2009 was smoke and mirrors. A lot of fantasy owners were fooled. But his second half is what we can expect when he’s healthy. 10-15 HRs will be an excellent season for Rolen. Don’t count on it though.

#20 Jhonny Peralta – Cleveland Indians – The hope that Peralta would hit for enough power to be the answer at 3B in Cleveland proved to be a mistake. His power took a step back and it doesn’t look like his other hit skills will allow him to take another step forward with his power. 15-20 HRs with a .260 average.

#21 Alex Gordon – Kansas City Royals – The star prospect who’s lost his luster. Age 26 season with experience. He’s still pushing along and if he can stay healthy he’s going to make someone a happy owner because he’s not going to cost a ton to acquire. Pay for 15 HRs and hope he can put it together. Upside: 25 HRs, 90 RBIs, 15 SBs.

#22 Mike Lowell – Boston Red Sox – Health is becoming a major issue for Lowell at this point in his career. If he can find full time run and stay healthy there is still a solid 20 HRs here with a decent average. But staying healthy is a long shot and unfortunately the key for him to be valuable to a fantasy baseball team. Unless your fantasy team is looking for veteran leadership. What? No? Yeah, mine either.

#23 Casey Blake – Los Angeles Dodgers – Same Casey Blake, year in and year out. Had some health issues in 2009 but they shouldn’t linger. Another .270 with 15-20 HRs should be in the works. He’s not special but he is solid and reliable.

#24 Casey McGehee – Milwaukee Brewers – He came out of the gates in 2009 as a man on fire and looked like a star in the making. The facts are that there was zero minor league skills to back up the production in Milwaukee and his second half proved to be more in line with his career numbers. He’s not a .300 hitter and might not even reach 15 HRs. Will be hyped and is a bust waiting to happen.

#25 Pedro Feliz – Houston Astros – At one time had elite raw power while having a tough time making contact on a regular basis. Now he just has trouble making contact on a regular basis. If he’s not going to hit 20 HRs why would you house a a possible sub .250 average with high K numbers.

#26 Edwin Encarnacion – Toronto Blue Jays – Encarnacion has some elite power in his bat which was sapped by a wrist injury in 2009. It may take another few months before we see his power return to top form but 20+ HRs are possible even if they come with a lower than ideal average. Age 27 season makes this a good speculative play.

#27 Troy Glaus – Atanta Braves  - Glaus still owns some power and will be playing 1B, but his body simply does not allow him to garner enough at bats to be useful any longer. If by some miracle he can get 400+ at bats in 2010 we could have some cheap 20 HR power here. But the odds of this being the year he stays healthy are a long shot. Take your dollar and play the lotto instead.

#28 Brandon Inge – Detroit Tigers – Let someone else buy the 27 HRs from 2009 because you know better. There was no other skill in his line that shows that 27 HRs should have even been possible. Without the additional luck in the first half we’re talking about a negative return from Inge.

#29 Brandon Wood – Los Angeles Angels – Wood is a sleeper candidate. It’s looking like he’s going to get a full time shot at 3B even if the leash will be on the shorter side. If he can get 500 ABs he could hit 25-30 HRs. His power is for real. But high wind warnings should be given out now to those in SoCal. He’s going to K. A lot. Even if he’s going well.

1B 2B SS 3B C OF DH SP RP